NFL Films' Greg Cosell on RGIII and Luck

[workhorse]

He says after watching both that RGIII has better arm strength and is a more natural passer. He watches a lot more film than Hoge and isn't nearly as stupid.

When evaluating college players, and projecting them to the NFL, I often feel as if I can never watch enough snaps, enough throws, enough games to reach a conclusion with which I am comfortable. This is particularly true of quarterbacks.

Which brings me to Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. Before I began my film study I had heard that Luck was the most NFL-ready quarterback to come out since Peyton Manning in 1998. The son of a former college and NFL quarterback, an Academic All-American and well-schooled in a pro-style offense at Stanford, Luck was being called a day one NFL starter and a great player. In many ways, it was pre-ordained.


Griffin’s rise appeared more meteoric. Although he started as a true freshman in 2008, it really wasn’t until this past season that folks celebrated the shining star that was RGIII. While Luck was always steady and constant, RGIII was spectacular and breathtaking. Different players in different offenses asked to do different things.

I have watched 5 games of both Luck and Griffin, all from their final collegiate season. Is that enough? Some might say yes, others no. Here’s what I saw. Luck ran a very controlled and condensed offense that featured multiple tight end personnel and a high percentage of compressed formations. He had a lot of freedom at the line of scrimmage to call plays and make adjustments based on defensive fronts and coverages. That’s an essential attribute as he transitions to the NFL, one that has dramatically increased in importance in the last number of years with the complexity and sophistication of defenses. There’s no question Luck is well ahead of the learning curve in that area.

Luck was an economical player who was at his best as a timing and rhythm, short to intermediate passer. 3 and 5 step drops, quick throws. He primarily made efficient throws to open receivers. The deeper throws were what we call shot plays, primarily with play action, specifically designed to attack an anticipated coverage based on field position, down and distance, personnel and formation. On those plays, the receiver was wide open. They were not difficult passes.

Overall, Luck was not asked to make many tough throws at the intermediate and deeper levels. I did not see those. I will not say he can’t make them, but based on the 5 games I evaluated it’s a projection. In addition, Luck had a tendency to lift his back foot off the ground before releasing the ball. That prevented him from driving through his throws and at times negatively impacted his velocity and accuracy. He would lean over his front foot and push the ball. That can be corrected with coaching and repetition, but it’s a concern that must be addressed.

Luck was not a special passer based on film study. He is not the same kind of arm talent as Matthew Stafford or Cam Newton. While charting Luck, I was compelled to reflect on Manning. Was Manning a special passer coming out of Tennessee? Most would probably say no. It raises the question: what is the connection between arm talent and high football IQ as it relates to NFL success? We know where it led with Manning. Also remember Peyton’s arm strength increased as played in the NFL.

Griffin predominantly ran a shotgun spread offense with 1 back and 4 wide receivers. What immediately jumped out was arm strength. He had a very compact and easy delivery with natural velocity. There was a snap to his throws. Many disagree, but in more than 20 years of watching NFL game film, I am a firm believer that arm strength, or put another way, the ability to make tight throws into small windows down the field, is critical. Can you be a top level quarterback without it? Yes, but then you must be special in other areas.

Griffin, for a power thrower, was consistently accurate. The better term for accuracy is ball location. That’s what allows receivers to run after the catch. Griffin excelled in that area, and just as important, he threw with touch on the shorter crossing routes. Short throws for big gains, especially to Kendall Wright, were a feature of the Baylor passing game.

Two other traits really impressed me in evaluating Griffin. The first was his patience and composure in the pocket. He did not move when the bodies started closing it down. He threw effectively out of what we call a “muddied” pocket”. He did not need much functional space to deliver the ball with velocity and distance. Surprisingly, in my 5 game breakdown of Luck, he exhibited a tendency to move too quickly, to leave the pocket too early. The result was often a positive because of his athleticism and ability to throw on the run, but I am very anxious to chart this element of his game in the NFL.

The second characteristic of Griffin’s play that stood out, and projects very well to the NFL, was his ability to throw from different platforms, or more descriptively, arm angles, and remain accurate. It’s especially important given his 6’3” height, an inch or two shorter than would be considered ideal for an NFL quarterback. I’m certainly not suggesting Griffin is the equal of Aaron Rodgers at this point, but that attribute has helped elevate Rodgers to elite status.

A complete breakdown of both Griffin’s and Luck’s play would demand more space than allowable, but here are some final thoughts based solely on film study. Luck, despite his freedom at the line of scrimmage, was managed and manipulated by his offense more than Griffin was in his spread scheme. Griffin threw an excellent deep ball, with trajectory, touch and accuracy. Luck played with an efficiency and continuity that was evident snap after snap. Griffin, despite taking a high percentage of snaps from the shotgun, showed the ability to execute the play action pass game from under center. Luck was very efficient in the play action and boot action pass game. I would describe Luck as a short to intermediate touch and timing passer off straight drop backs, and a deep ball thrower off play action.

The bottom line in my 5 game film evaluation: Griffin is a superior arm talent and natural passer than Luck. Will he be a better NFL quarterback? We’ll find out soon enough.

http://nflfilms.nfl.com/2012/03/23/c...t-always-luck/

[indycolts2]

I would describe Luck as a short to intermediate touch and timing passer off straight drop backs, and a deep ball thrower off play action.

So he is a lot like Peyton Manning, at least that one line indicates such. There were times particularly early on when play action was done you almost came to expect a wide open receiver downfield (usually Harrison it seemed).

[DrSpaceman]

None of this matters

Colts are drafting Luck, end of story. There is no drama to this, as much as ESPN and every sports talk station wants to act like there is some dilemna so it can be "discussed"

The Colts are drafting Luck

[Chromeburn]

I think RG3 is the better athlete and has the stronger arm. Whether he is the more natural passer is debatable to me. I think Luck has a smooth and natural motion throwing the ball, comparable to Tiger Woods golf swing.

I disagree with him on pocket presence. I think Luck has the more sound pocket presence, his internal clock would go off and he would start moving. Sometimes he was early and pressure wasn't coming, but I thought his clock was more in tune with the pro game, and more consistent, where pressure will be coming in a shorter period of time. RG3 seemed more random in his clock, sometimes he would get a feel for pressure. But more often than not I would see him wait to run till players were right on top of him. Meaning he was reactionary not pre-emptive in the pocket. He was able to get away with this a lot because of his extreme athleticism, and would fight guys off or leave them in the dust. That will be harder to do in the pro's.

A lot of their success will depend on who is around them and what styles they are going into. But I would still take Luck. I think he is bigger, taller, has the better football brain, better accuracy in short area passing, and is more ready for the pro game. He also has an excellent demeanor and seems to shoulder pressure well.

I think a lot of this has to do with Luck being old hat and RG3 the new shiny toy. Luck has been over analyzed to the point where people are trying to find something wrong.

[DrSpaceman]

Originally Posted by Chromeburn

I think RG3 is the better athlete and has the stronger arm. Whether he is the more natural passer is debatable to me. I think Luck has a smooth and natural motion throwing the ball, comparable to Tiger Woods golf swing.

I disagree with him on pocket presence. I think Luck has the more sound pocket presence, his internal clock would go off and he would start moving. Sometimes he was early and pressure wasn't coming, but I thought his clock was more in tune with the pro game, and more consistent, where pressure will be coming in a shorter period of time. RG3 seemed more random in his clock, sometimes he would get a feel for pressure. But more often than not I would see him wait to run till players were right on top of him. Meaning he was reactionary not pre-emptive in the pocket. He was able to get away with this a lot because of his extreme athleticism, and would fight guys off or leave them in the dust. That will be harder to do in the pro's.

A lot of their success will depend on who is around them and what styles they are going into. But I would still take Luck. I think he is bigger, taller, has the better football brain, better accuracy in short area passing, and is more ready for the pro game. He also has an excellent demeanor and seems to shoulder pressure well.

The last paragraph is key

Luck is coming here. RGIII is going to the Redskins

Now we all complain about what Polian and Caldwell have done with the team recently, but if you had a choice, which team would you want to play or and which team, as an organization, has shown they can produce a contender and a championship team?

which teams overpsends for free agents year after year after year and still never wins anything?

[grw80]

There's always a handful retards that will feel the need to create a controversy when one doesn't need to exist. The first two picks have been set in stone for weeks/months now. The Colts will draft Luck and Foreskins will take Griffin. Some just can't handle the fact that there's no "suspense" with what the Colts will do with the first pick. Luck's body of work for the past three years is MORE than enough to see that he's the best QB prospect to come out since Manning himself. You have a guy who's been a pro level QB for 3 years and one who just figured out how to have success his Junior year. This league is FULL of one yer wonder college QBs out of spread offenses that came into the NFL and were completely caught off guard at the complexity at the NFL level. Thanks, but I'll take Luck every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

[grw80]

Luck just has that "it" factor that some people just can't understand. Some people with a good eye just know it when they see it. It's something Griffin just doesn't possess. Manning was a great example of the "it" factor. You just knew he was too intelligent, too skilled and too well balanced of an individual to not be successful at the next level. That's Andrew Luck in a nutshell.

[CanuckColt]

Greg Cosell is on Dan Snyder's secret payroll.

[VeveJones007]

Ok, let's nitpick Luck and make 0 mention of RGIII's ****ty footwork.

I think RGIII will be a good QB in the NFL, but he has to work on some things that this article conveniently doesn't address.

[bertjones]

Get used to it. For the next month we'll be hearing from the contrarians
with their varying agendas. And in the end Luck will be the pick, as he
should be.