2023 Draft QBs

[Chromeburn]

So I decided to separate this post out and make some more comments and expansive eval as I've looked at them more.

This is what I've seen and read from other evaluators on the 1st round QBs.

Bryce Young
Good: Best skills and intangibles of the group. Can read defenses. Great improviser when plays break down, good enough arm with nice touch. Good poise in the pocket and can navigate around it using windows formed by the rush. Is the same whether under pressure or with a clean pocket. Would be the undisputed number 1 pick if not for...

Bad: Under 6ft. Rumors are he is 5'10 and 180-190lbs after a Bama measurement day. That's like a small nickel corner. Won't know until the combine. But that is really small for a QB. Wilson and Murray are over 200 lbs. He doesn't have Murray's speed and athleticism. Teams will worry about his ability to take hits in the NFL, but it also affects his vision. Grossman once said he doesn't throw the outlet bc he couldn't see him, and he was 6'1. Wilson is notorious for not throwing the outlet passes bc he can't see it. Tua just admitted his vision is restricted and it affects his game, he is 6ft and some change. So it will be a factor teams consider.


CJ Stroud
Good: Probably the best accuracy of the group. Great long ball. Good size and a strong arm that can make all the throws. Pocket passer with the athleticism to scramble, but stays in the pocket almost to a fault. Known as a tremendous leader in the locker room.

Bad: Is surrounded by 1st round receivers and linemen. Has a clean pocket almost every game, that will not be the case in the NFL. Is not as creative in off-script plays, has shown some potential but you would like to see more. He has a reputation for not doing well under pressure, and in the NFL you are always under pressure. The few games when he was under pressure things did not go very well. Has an awful completion percentage when under pressure. In his playoff game he showed a lot of his critics that he could do those things.


Will Levis
Good: Big, highly athletic QB with a cannon for an arm and the ability to run. Has shown great touch on throws over defenders. Can easily make all the throws on a pro field. Plays in a pro-style offense and is tabbed as the most pro-ready QB. Did not have much talent around him this year and was played hurt most of the year. The offense did not seem to play to his strengths.

Bad: His mechanics could use some work and rumors his progressions are slow. Had a bad stat year, much better in 2021. Had to play hero ball a lot, is that because of a lack of talent around him? His touch is inconsistent, some times has too much juice on his throws. He needs to work on his passing more.


Anthony Richardson
Good: The biggest traits QB in the draft. Highest ceiling, the most athleticism, very strong arm. Shows wow moments of improv when plays break down. Exciting and creative passer who can throw to any point on the field. His accuracy should be better because his receivers dropped a LOT of passes that were catchable. Enormous potential.

Bad: Limited college sample size. Very Raw player still. Did not have a great cast around him so hard to know exactly how good he is. Will likely have to sit the first year. Is a team willing to wait and develop him?

[Chromeburn]

Anthony Richardson

With the influx of so many successful toolsy QBs in recent years, teams are having to re-evaluate how they look at quarterbacks. With the success of Mahomes, Allen, Hurt, and Jackson; teams are looking for the next big lottery ticket and Richardson is a huge lottery ticket.

Richardson is a one-year starter for Florida and only 20 years old. 53% completion with 17 TDS and 9 ints. Comparisons have been made to Cam Newton, although Richardson is a better athlete, he is not Cam Newton. Newton was much more advanced than Richardson was when he came out. I will say he throws with better touch than Cam did coming out. Cam came out a bit later though, he had two years at Florida, a year at junior college, then he went to Auburn and blew up. He had almost two more years to develop than Richardson.

So with mediocre stats why is Richardson being talked about? Most will think it is his combine performance and athleticism, which is some of it. He scores a perfect 10 on the RAS, he set all the records for QB performance at the combine. His arm strength will likely be top five in the NFL and like a pro golfer with a natural swing he had a natural throwing motion despite his lower half being out of sync with his arm. So he has the size and tools to play the QB position, but what about the mental part?

First I will say Richardson ran pro-style offense. This isn't some gimmicky RPO offense with inflated stats like say Malick Willis ran. These are pro concepts. The problem is Florida did not have a QB coach and they had a former oline coach calling the plays. Not what I would call the ideal setup for a raw QB needing help developing. I’ll start with…

Games
Richardson vs UK
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_RO6xkaR2U

This game received some hype as a game exposing Richardson. I noticed that Kentucky is running a lot of inverted zones and they seemed to confuse Richardson. AR will see a lot of zone and disguised zone coverages in the future. Zone rushing, zone backfields. Because of his running ability teams probably will not have defenders run man and turn their back on such a dangerous QB in the open field.

Back to the game, UK was switching between cover-2 and inverted zones or inverted zone robber, AR seemed confused by them. Below you can see that there was some miscommunication as the receiver wants to run deep and AR is throwing short, also he expected the corner to drop deep but instead he is going to cover the flat in the inverted zone. This INT made AR question what he was seeing the rest of the day and be very hesitant.



Richardson vs Tenn
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iOi4foYTeNk
Richardson had some struggles in this game at first. Tennessee threw some inverted zones at him and he panicked and started running when he first saw him. However, he then settled down and the next time he saw that inverted zone he made the correct read and threw a completion. He was able to isolate his guy within the confusing zone.



This tells me that he gets what he is looking at on the sideline and is able to make adjustments in game. He was growing and wasn’t making the same mistake over and over. This is a very good sign.

Richardson vs FSU
I would post my thoughts on this but I think this post sums it up nicely.

https://twitter.com/fb_filmanalysis/...L8ardaxv32vrGQ

Accuracy
Richardson throws a lot of highballs. Which usually indicates that there is an issue with his feet. His arm and feet seem out of synch and his arm is so strong it seems to work against his feet. He often takes too many steps and is not efficient with his feet. Richardson did get better as the year went on. Early on his throws were one speed and he was throwing fastballs to everyone everywhere. But by the second half of the season he was throwing with more touch and layering balls into different areas of the field. Throwing to points where only the receiver could get them.

Another thing I noticed. Florida receivers drop a lot of balls, and I mean throws they should have caught. They also seem to end up in the same area quite a bit. This is either poor scheme or they are not running the right routes. I mean WTF are they doing here, two quick outs in the same throwing lane.



Their best receiver was a transfer from Arizona St. Three drops stuck out to me this game: 0:50, 1:32, and 2:00. Keep this in mind; if Richardson had just two more completions per game, he would have ended the year with a 61% completion rate.
However, you should not forget that he was also really inaccurate at times. Yes, his receivers dropped a lot of balls, but he also had some really bad throws as well. He will need to fix this at the next level, in both throwing from the pocket and on the run.



Awareness
These are all the intangibles that make up a QB. Pass rush feel, using your eyes, maneuvering within the pocket, etc.
Richardson uses his eyes very well, and was able to look off defenders or lead them with his eyes to help his receivers get open. Remember, he does and will face a lot of zone defenses. This is a big skill to have.

AR has a pretty good feel for the pass rush and is able to navigate within the pocket fairly well. Although sometimes I think he takes too many steps and sometimes he will push himself back into danger when he should just settle into where he is. This can develop over time, so I would say this is a developing skill. He is comfortable going through progressions and I have seen him get up to four if he has the time to do so. I think this will get better with more experience.

I would say as a pocket passer his biggest hurdle will be settling his feet down and making sure his throwing motion is correct. That should be priority number one in his development.

Sum Up
So why is Richardson being considered top ten? He has athleticism you only see at the position every 5-10 years. He has a top-tier arm that allows him to push the ball anywhere on the football field, he can make every throw, he has demonstrated the ability to adapt and learn from game situations, read coverage, use his eyes to lead defenders, throw with anticipation, layer the ball to all three levels, Good (not great) pocket presence, and make improv plays.
Richardson's biggest issues are a lack of experience, mechanics not aligning between his feet and arm creating inaccuracy, and a lack of consistency. Consistency is his biggest enemy right now and will be in the foreseeable future. For every wow throw, there is another that is equally as bad. He shows flashes and then he has just as many lows. Honestly, its what you expect from a raw first-year starter.

Final Conclusion
AR is a lottery ticket. Yeah, he could bust, but would you rather shoot for the moon or keep it kinda safe? Playing in the AFC the next decade is going to be tough, you have Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Jackson, Watson, and Lawrence. You either need a scary defense or a damn good QB to compete with that lot. This is where interviews and personality come in. Does he have the work ethic to reach his potential? Josh Allen did, but Jamarcus Russell did not. If he does reach his potential, whooo boy you hit the lottery. Steichen has said he wants a QB that is going to work and is obsessed with football. He will be going off the interviews they do with him. What he determines, we will find out in a few weeks.

Why pick him? Before Jalen Hurts, I would have seen Richardson as a guy who would be a wasted pick. I did not think Hurts would become anything, he just couldn’t get his passing together. But Steichen made him into a good QB. With the success of Allen and now Hurts, project QBs are not as big a longshot as they once were. I also think we have a great coach to help with that QB. So that said, why not try for the guy with the highest upside? Go big or go home.

*I'd like to include more graphics but there is a limit of four per post

[Chromeburn]

Will Levis

Levis is a difficult evaluation. Not many QBs can say their situation might get better as they go to the pro's. I think that is the case with both Levis and AR.
Levis had a better 2021 than 2022. He had a young team around him this season, freshmen receivers and very young linemen. He also was dealing with three injuries including a turf toe which hurt his scrambling and perhaps his throwing mechanics. People have suggested his age is a detriment compared to a 21 Stroud and a 21 AR, but the age isn’t something I’m worried about, he is 23 when he will be drafted its still ok.

Lets take a look at Levis because there is a good chance he could be the QB chosen soon. Levis started at Penn St and he was more the gimmicky running QB there, he did not win the starting job. He finished his degree and decided to go to Kentucky for grad school and to start. People ask why he didn’t start at Penn St because the starter isn’t great, and I don’t know. But I will say it isn’t always about who is the best QB, sometimes its about other things, internal politics, boosters. There can be other reasons. Levis graduates from Penn St in two years with a degree in finance and near 4.0. He decides to transfer to UK for grad school and playing time.

Before going to UK, Levis took the opportunity to go up to Canada and work with the biometrics team up there. He worked on his throwing motion and specifically using his hips when throwing. I think it made a noticeable difference because he now has a whip like motion from his hips when throwing and it definitely affected the speed of his release and power.

Levis gets to Kentucky and Liam Coen is the OC there, the WR coach from the Rams. He has a pro-style system that comes from the McVey coaching tree. He has pro prospects protecting him on the line and several receivers who will be drafted. Levis completed 66.0 percent of his passes that season for 2,827 yards, 24 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in 13 games; he rushed for 376 rushing yards and a team-high nine touchdowns. He played a key role in Kentucky’s fourth 10-win season in program history. They win 10 games go to a pro game, are one of the best offenses in the SEC, Levis is a first round pick and the first QB taken if he goes pro. Instead he decides to come back for another year even though he could be one of the top QB’s drafted in 2022.

Coen goes back to the Rams for 2022, but at UK the Wildcats hire Rich Scangarello from the 49’ers. The terminology mainly stays the same but the offense is a different pro-style offense with different base packages. More emphasis on TE’s and and RB’s. Levis has to learn his third offense in three years, while still maintaining a 4.0 in grad school. Uk also has a rebuilt oline and freshmen receivers. Things don’t go well. Levis is constantly under pressure, he gets hurt with a turf toe, shoulder and finger injuries. He can’t practice very well, he has trouble planting his foot and being explosive. He also has some mechanics issues called pigeon toeing where he doesn’t point his foot at the target. Fans will remember this from the Wentz days. Although some of this could be due to his turf toe. The season ends up being a disappointment, Levis graduates and enters the draft at 23 years old.

Levis opted out of his bowl game (and UK didn’t even score in it) and went to work with one of the best QB coaches around. People criticized him for not improving much. But at the combine Levis did look noticeably improved especially throwing to his left which he struggled with during the year. I think he can improve his mechanics with work.

What he does well

Levis got a 93% reportedly on the S2, he is smart with a relentless work ethic reflected in his grades and learning three different pro-style systems. He has a big powerful arm with a quick release. A top athlete he has the physical tools to be compared to Josh Allen. He would normally be the strongest armed QB but Richardson is in the draft and might be slightly stronger. Still he can make every throw on the field and will be able to throw the entire route tree. He also has such a quick release, it allows him to hold the ball a split second more to study the defense because the window for his throw stays open longer due to that arm strength. While so many college offenses rely on tempo and short play calls from sideline poster boards, Levis’ play calls in the huddle were 15-20 words, and he went to the line with three checks on every play. He can also run when necessary and had a high number of runs called for him with the Coen system, but is not as elusive as say a Richardson or Jackson. He reminds me a bit of Luck in his running. He is not afraid of taking a hit and is a tough runner. He could learn to slide a bit more. His running attempts dropped this season because of his injuries.

There are a couple analytics why people like him



This is the % of passes deemed uncatchable when a QB is under pressure vs when a QB is kept clean. Top right is where you want to be. This is the premiere Levis stat and what sold a lot of teams. QBs are always under pressure and this shows how they perform when under that pressure.



According to his former OC Coen:

“Man, you could see the talent,” Coen said. “He killed it because he outworked everybody. He was named captain after eight days of practice, and he wasn’t even the starting quarterback yet. Blood, sweat, tears, he’s going to compete, study film. The kid works his tail off, and he’s an extremely intelligent person

“He works at everything he does,” Coen told The Athletic. “When you get him in the building in a competitive and supportive atmosphere and let him go, I think his best football is ahead of him.”

What he doesn’t do well

Levis had a penchant for turnovers last season, some said he was trying to compensate for the bad team around him and he was trying to do too much. He also has poor feel in the pocket. He seems the anti-Bryce Young at times. He took a lot of hits the past two seasons and I think this is partly where some of the Wentz comps come from. Although he did get blindsided a lot because his line just could not hold up. But his feel in the pocket doesn’t seem very good. Levis will have to speed up his read and release in the pros. Also when he takes off to run, too often he closes down the option to throw and doesn’t continue to look for receivers when on the move.

His Fit

There has been some debate on what team Levis would be a best fit. I personally think Steichen can build around anyone. He molds around his personnel. I would see a similar system that he utilized with Herbert. Play action with deep passes. Levis does a great job with dig routes and a short game, and some Colts podcasters have said he is a better fit with a New England or Vegas system. But I think you want to take advantage of his big arm and ability to run. Herbert had one of the best rookie seasons ever under Steichen. Something Levis mentioned in his Manning camp video, he talked about how Peyton did a great job with the play action and was such a master at it, he even watched an old video of Peyton teaching it when he was young. Which tells me he is a student of the game and other QBs.

More quotes from Coen:.

“If you can have a really good run game, limit the amount of straight dropbacks other than naturally third-down, gotta-have-it, red zone (situations),” Coen said. “There are going to be some straight dropback that you’re going to have to compete in an NFL game. But if you can limit the amount of straight dropback that he has, that’s for any young quarterback. You don’t want them standing in the pocket just seeing a million different things and having a bunch of guys breathing down your neck. That’s not an ideal place for a young quarterback, especially a young quarterback who doesn’t have a ton of true quarterback, pocket experience.
“But if you get him in an offense where you run the football, get him on the perimeter with bootlegs and nakeds and movement, then max-protect play-pass, he can make every throw. I’m not saying what they should do. That’s what I would do — try to limit the amount of dropbacks, (do some) quick-game, RPOs, get him on the run a little bit with lead blockers like they do with Josh Allen and Daniel Jones. Because he likes to get hit. He likes to run and play the game. He was just limited last year with an injury.
“The guy’s superpower is play-action, pushing the ball downfield, making every throw on the field. That’s his superpower. That’s what he’s great at.”

I think a deep passing play action game would work well with him. His ability to run and quick release would allow him to buy more time reading the defense in the backfield.

Final Conclusion

Levis is still a work in progress. A athletic QB who had a down injury plagued year. He has a high ceiling if he can address his mechanics issues. I think he has a sky high ceiling, its just been not as talked about because Richardson’s ceiling is higher. But there is a lot to like there. Experience with two pro-style systems. Calling from the huddle, making reads and adjusting. He is smart and maintained a 4.0 through school. But one of the things I like the most is his dedication to the game and his work ethic. That was always the thing that separated Peyton from everyone, it was his work ethic. I think Levis has a similar drive, and with so many guys seemingly playing video games or have other interests, its nice to know that this guy will be a dedicated pro from day one.

[Chromeburn]

I won't be able to breakdown Hooker in time. I don't think he is an option anyway. Hooker is 26, has a good accurate arm and can run. But he played in a weird 1 read offense and he rarely had to go to his second read. It makes it hard to evaluate him. Also at 26 you think a guy is a more finished product than one just starting to reach his potential. Kurt Warner does a decent breakdown of him and his offense but even he doesn't know what to make of him.

https://youtu.be/s75Zg19RCQE

[BCN#1]

Originally Posted by Chromeburn

Hendon Hooker

I´ll say it again... Who does not like having a reasonably priced Hooker on the team?

[BCN#1]

Not getting a real warm fuzzy with any of them from this writie up but if it comes down to a choice between Richardson or Levis; Imma thinkin I would go with Richardson in this crap shoot.

[Lov2fish]

I have scoured the internet for as much video on these guys I could get. I have watched all of the so called experts break them down. The more I watch and find the more I would be happy to trade back to 8-10 and grab a CB and take McKee with our first pick in the 2nd. He has all the tools to be a good QB in the NFL. I compare him a lot to Carr with a better touch on the ball. Hooker would also be on my radar. His injury is the drawback. I know todays athletes heal quickly, physically, but how does he recover mentally. Young guy, NFL and recovering from injury, don't know. I know for me on a personal level as a two sport player in school, injuries were in my head longer than the healing process, and this was 35-40 years ago so a lot has changed.

[Dam8610]

The bad on Stroud are the common criticisms of him, but I honestly don't see any of it, outside of the first round receivers. He rarely had clean pockets (how is Paris Johnson, who constantly allowed pressure, considered a first round pick?), he constantly had to roll out and make plays while avoiding pressure (which I don't think counts as "under pressure", but deals with the pressure nonetheless), and completion percentage under pressure, I would like to know if that takes rollouts or escaping the pocket into account, because he's just as accurate on the run rolling left or right as he is in the pocket.

[ukcolt]

Stroud is the safest bet to be the best of this group in 3 years time.

Young will be the best of the bunch for the first 2 years, and will then wear down and prove not to be as effective.

Levis will struggle the first two years and barely see the field, but will then possibly shine and become an above average QB.

Richardson will play his rookie season and play like a rookie, with boom and bust plays all over the place. In 3 years time, could be one of the best players in the league, or potentially have been released entirely.

Hooker, will sit the first part of the season, and then show flashes at the end of the year and develop nicely in years 2 and 3 and be an above average starter.

The likes of Max Duggan, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Tanner McKee and Jaren Hall, will all end up as regular starting QB's at some point. This in my opinion is a pretty good draft class, with no sure fire stud. Aidan O'Connell will have the longest career, but mainly as a backup.

[albany ed]

They're all a crap shoot.

1. Young is too short and possibly fragile
2. Stroud in the film I've seen stares down receivers
3. Levis has questionable mechanics
4. Richardson not enough data to ascertain his skills

Any of these could be elite or a total bust. I wouldn't trade up for any of them. But then again, I'm just a fan.

A fan that will support the QB the team selects. I'm pretty sure they know more than me.