https://www.indystar.com/story/sports/nfl/colts/2023/03/29/colts-are-they-in-a-rebuil

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https://www.indystar.com/story/sport...d/70058395007/

PHOENIX — For far too long, the Colts have been chasing something that was further out of their reach than they realized: contention.

When Andrew Luck’s shocking retirement rocked the franchise two weeks before the start of the 2019 season, Indianapolis was coming off an incredible run to the playoffs; the kind that makes a team believe it can contend when it has the right guy at the quarterback spot.

When an aging Philip Rivers took Indianapolis back to the playoffs a year later, it reinforced the belief that the Colts were only a bit of above-average quarterback play away from being a contender in the AFC.


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The thinking led to short-term gambles at the quarterback position, rather than the young, long-term, draft-and-develop approach team owner Jim Irsay says he’s wanted since Rivers retired.

“Here’s what we didn’t do a very good job of: We didn’t manage expectations very well. At all,” Colts general manager Chris Ballard said in January, at the end of a disastrous season. “This is on me. Go get a vet quarterback, well, here’s the expectation: We’re going to the Super Bowl. ‘They’ve got a good roster, they’re going to the Super Bowl.’ Well, there were holes in that.”


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A crushing collapse in 2022 broke the cycle.

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An ugly, tumultuous season cost former head coach Frank Reich his job and handed the Colts the No. 4 NFL Draft pick, the kind of capital that gives the franchise a shot at drafting a potential quarterback of the future.


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Irsay wants to use this draft to land the rookie quarterback he covets, the kind of player the team can build around for the next decade.

No more quick fixes.


Or quick failures, stumbles leading to whiplash changes in the franchise’s plans.


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“I’ve always said it, and I don’t change the way I feel, is that it’s not about winning just one, but two Lombardis going forward this decade, and it’s really about no shortcuts,” Irsay said. “I’ve said before, and I believe it: One of the key things in franchise-building is patience.”

Rookie quarterbacks almost always require patience.

Even the best have trouble directing full-scale turnarounds in their first season. The last time it happened, Dak Prescott found magic in Dallas in 2016; before that, it was Luck and Robert Griffin in 2012.

Indianapolis probably shouldn’t be expecting a Luck-style turnaround in 2023, and the moves the Colts have made indicate that Ballard is willing to play the long game.

But it’s hard to tell if the franchise is fully on board with the possibility that Indianapolis might have to tread water in the win-loss column for a year or two before realizing the fruits of its draft labor this offseason.


Ballard and Irsay don’t go for broke

By nature, Ballard and Irsay, are not go-for-broke executives.

Not in the way that term is used by most of the NFL these days; the cap-circumventing, push costs off into the future in order to chase big-money payrolls style that teams like Tampa Bay, the Los Angeles Rams and even New England have ridden to Super Bowls in the past decade.

Ballard’s made big acquisitions — most notably DeForest Buckner and the string of veterans at quarterback — but most of his free-agent signings mirror the value signings he’s made so far this offseason. The Colts kept their forays to a minimum, signing a potential franchise kicker in Matt Gay and prioritizing depth on the defensive line while so far staying away from big-money acquisitions at other positions of need — wide receiver, guard, cornerback — even though Indianapolis has roughly $20 million in cap space.

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The Colts also traded away star cornerback Stephon Gilmore for $9.92 million in cap savings, the kind of deal that a go-for-broke team would be on the other side of.

But it’s important to understand that Irsay agrees with Ballard’s approach.

Champions it.

Irsay’s focus is on building a team that contends on an annual basis for the better part of a decade, rather than going all-in for one Super Bowl and then tearing down. In his annual interview with reporters at the owners’ meetings this week, Irsay referenced the Rams, who are purging themselves of some of the big-money decisions that led to their Lombardi Trophy two seasons ago.

“We have to find a way to get two more Lombardis,” Irsay said. “One more is great, but I say two more for a reason, because it’s not a team that just won because you sold out everything. It’s to have a chance, and to have a legacy team, a team that can be excellent for a long period of time.”


A legacy team in today’s NFL needs a franchise quarterback.

And the best way to do that, in Irsay’s belief, is through the draft, citing the quarterbacks drafted in Kansas City, Buffalo, Cincinnati and Philadelphia, among others. A team that drafts a franchise quarterback typically gets at least four years of significant cap savings, paying its young passer far less than he’s worth on the open market.

“I look at this as a great opportunity, because if you have a rookie quarterback, you’re going to have a chance for those years to really have extra dollars to make your team better,” Irsay said.

A lot of teams getting ready to draft rookie quarterbacks clear the deck in advance, keeping investments at a minimum until they see what they have in their first-round pick.

From the outside looking in, that’s the way the Colts have operated this offseason.

Mostly.


Colts aren’t tearing down roster

But there are other signs that the Colts aren’t pursuing a total rebuild.

A complete teardown never materialized this offseason.

Indianapolis traded Gilmore away, but Ballard said this week that the Colts rebuffed trade inquiries on center Ryan Kelly and cornerback Kenny Moore II, two players who would have created more than $15 million in extra salary-cap space.

More importantly, Ballard and Irsay have repeatedly defended the Indianapolis roster this offseason, suggesting that the team is far more talented than its 4-12-1 record in 2022 indicated.

Ballard keeps saying the Colts have better players than people realize.

Irsay agrees.

“I see a talented team with plenty of young players with strong years left, some that have Hall of Fame potential,” Irsay said, then singled out running back Jonathan Taylor, linebacker Shaquille Leonard and left guard Quenton Nelson.


The Colts owner also hasn’t given up his goals of winning the AFC South, a title Indianapolis hasn’t won since Luck was at the helm in 2014.

The way he sees it, an improved offense gives the Colts a chance in a division a young Jaguars team won with a 9-8 record last season.

“I look at Jacksonville, we knew they’d play well with their quarterback, and he’s a great player, and they ended up winning the division,” Irsay said of Trevor Lawrence. “And we know Tennessee’s always a tough group with (coach Mike) Vrabel there, and they’re trying to tweak a few things to get their program right. And Houston’s in the rebuild, so I see opportunity in the division.”

A division that has been dominated by Tennessee in recent seasons, rankling Irsay, might be turning toward Jacksonville and its rising star quarterback, Trevor Lawrence.

Or, in Irsay’s view, it might be there for the taking.


“It’s not like we’re in Kansas City’s division, or Philly’s division,” Irsay said. “It’s a competitive division, obviously, but there’s opportunity there. For instance, when we were in the Peyton era, winning all those division titles back to back, you had such a dominant team, but I don’t see that right now, and it gives us opportunity.”

That can be dangerous.

To Ballard’s point at the end of the season, trying to win the AFC South led the Colts to this point.

“That was always the goal when Chris and (former coach) Frank (Reich) and I got together, was win the division, win the division, win the division,” Irsay said. “Never won a division championship, and I think that kind of speaks volumes on where we are today, because of our inability to do that.”

Why the Colts could compete in 2023

In an ideal scenario, Indianapolis could compete this season.


Finally able to put the chaos and injuries of the 2022 season behind them, the Colts could realize the formula they’ve been trying to complete with veterans the past two seasons, wrapping an excellent running game, offensive line and defense around a rookie quarterback or veteran backup Gardner Minshew, winning games with efficient, encouraging play at the game’s most important position.

New Colts head coach Shane Steichen is certainly pursuing that goal.

When he took over as the offensive coordinator in Philadelphia two years ago, the Eagles weren’t expected to do much with a new coach in Nick Sirianni and a developmental quarterback in Jalen Hurts; but Philadelphia caught fire and made the playoffs late, leading to a Super Bowl run in 2022.

Steichen knows it can come together faster than anybody expects.

“Every year, you’re trying to win, regardless,” Steichen said. “You’re trying to put your team in position to win. There’s so much parity in this league. We want to win. That’s the goal, every year in this league, is to win, and win as soon as we can.”

But it sounds like Irsay also realizes that the ideal scenario might not materialize. Kansas City, Cincinnati and Buffalo had to wait at least a season to reap the benefits of drafting and developing Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Josh Allen.

The best quarterback in Indianapolis history went through the same waiting period.

“You have to have patience,” Irsay said. “Peyton was here, we were 3-13. No different with (Troy) Aikman’s (1-win) rookie year.”

What Irsay wants to see is a reason to believe.

Promise at the game’s most important position, even if the win-loss results don’t come right away.

Hope that his dream of creating a legacy power can be realized.

“That’s what we have to create now, is a big well of hope, and a certainty that we’re going in the right direction,” Irsay said. “Time is going to reveal excellency.”

False hopes led the Colts to this point.

Indianapolis is hoping it finds reason for the real thing this offseason.