Quenton Nelson (G-ND) Rd #1 Pick #6

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by Chaka

Can somebody explain in detail, rather than just stating it as a conclusion, why they think picking an exceptional guard prospect like Nelson at #6 is too high? Virtually every projection had him going in the 5-8 range. This isn't a situation where the Colts picked someone way before they were expected to be picked. Yet it seems to be a working assumption here that taking any guard, even one of Nelson's apparent caliber, at #6 was some sort of reach. I don't get it.

I read GoBigBlue's criticism at the outset of this thread, and Chromeburn's explanation of why an OT is usually considered more valuable than a guard, but neither have really answered my question about why it is impossible for an exceptional guard prospect like Nelson to merit being picked at #6, or why GBB's belief that an opposing team can simply avoid a guard would not also apply to an OT picked at the top of the draft.

A LT's value is in being able to neutralize the opposing team's best pass rush threat. They have to have athleticism to be able to force adept pass rushers to run the arc, and the strength to prevent them from bending the edge and creating a direct path to the QB. A guard can't and is not expected to do any of those things. They don't have the value of OTs because the athleticism and footwork requirements are nowhere near as high. Thus, many players who can't play tackle professionally can play guard. The greater supply is what makes it possible to find starters at the position with relative ease on Day 3. Greater supply always means lower value.