Colts draft CB Justin Walley - Round 3, Pick 80

[IndyNorm]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

I wanted Winston Jr., because the Colts covered the Watts role when they signed Bynum. Hopefully Winston Jr.'s injury issues don't improve, because he could be a Derwin James level talent if he can stay healthy.

Yeah, that would have made sense as well pending the medicals on Winston Jr. The reason why I was saying Watts is b/c of safety depth and possibly having both Bynum and Watts on the field in obvious passing downs. In more hindsight I would have really liked to have seen us trade down and draft either Ty Robinson or Deone Walker.

People were saying we drafted him too high. But there seemed to be a lot of interest in him. Teams had him going within the next ten picks. Shows you have to take what those draft services say with a grain of salt.

Curious where you saw or heard that. Obviously Ballard thought he was going to go soon or he would have traded down. If he is a good player and is a good replacement for Moore then he'll obviously be worth the 3rd rounder.

I'm interested to see how Wally ends up comparing to Robert Longerbeam out of Rutgers, who BAL got at the end of the 6th, as their size, production in college, speed, and that they're both likely moving into the slot make them seem almost interchangeable.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

Yeah, that would have made sense as well pending the medicals on Winston Jr. The reason why I was saying Watts is b/c of safety depth and possibly having both Bynum and Watts on the field in obvious passing downs. In more hindsight I would have really liked to have seen us trade down and draft either Ty Robinson or Deone Walker.

I did a full redraft based on where players went in the actual draft and the picks the Colts ended up with. This would've been my class:

1.14 TE Tyler Warren - The most obvious pick of the draft IMO after Cam Ward, Warren should give the Colts an elite receiver and average blocker at the TE position as a rookie, plus the versatility he offers should lead to some interesting packages Steichen draws up for the offense. Don't be surprised to see Warren take a shotgun snap in a split backfield flanked by AR and JT/Giddens at some point in 2025.

2.45 DT Darius Alexander - I don't have the option to here, but if I did, I'd probably trade down first given where he went in the actual draft. There are two other players I considered here: Omarr Norman-Lott and Shemar Turner. Obviously, I feel DT is a larger need than Ballard does. That's because while the Colts have two Pro Bowl starters in DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart, they're both 31, and behind them? Adetomiwa Adebawore, who hasn't translated elite traits into on field production to date, and career backup Neville Gallimore. By drafting Darius Alexander, the Colts would've given themselves a Milton Williams like player who could start out rotating in for 40-60% of snaps this year, then gradually increase his role as Buckner ages. So why Alexander instead of Turner or Norman-Lott? Ultimately it comes down to traits and projectability. Alexander is longer, bigger, and similar athletically to Turner, and while Norman-Lott had the best per snap pass rush production by far of any DT in this class, he has a similar issue that Adebawore had coming into the league in that he is currently pure liability against the run. Alexander was the best combination of size, length, athleticism, and production to potentially be an eventual Buckner replacement after Derrick Harmon in this draft, which makes him the obvious choice to me here.

3.80 S Kevin Winston Jr. - This is where the replacement value game starts. There are 3 players I considered here: Winston Jr., Josaiah Stewart, and Charles Grant. Those 3 players were incredibly close in value for me, too close to call in fact, so how do I make the decision? Look down the board. Do I think there's an edge rusher I can get later that's close in value to Stewart? Yes. Do I think there's a tackle I can get later that's close in value to Grant? Yes. Do I think there's a safety I can get later that's close in value to Winston Jr.? No, he's where the value falls off a cliff on the safety board. After him, you're sacrificing measurables, production, or both. I like Billy Bowman Jr. and Lathan Ransom, but both went before pick 127. As for Winston Jr., had he not been injured, he likely would've been a Top 25 talent in this year's class. The best word that can be used to describe a healthy Kevin Winston Jr. is eraser. He'll erase an opponent's TE or slot receiver in coverage, he's instinctual enough to read and erase a screen game, and he erases potentially big gain runs, holding them to small gains or even TFLs. I don't want to see a healthy Winston Jr. on the Titans.

4.127 EDGE Bradyn Swinson - The reason I didn't take Stewart earlier, Bradyn Swinson has an excellent combination of traits and production that make him an intriguing rotational EDGE rusher, and potential replacement for Kwity Paye should he leave in free agency.

5.151 RB D.J. Giddens - The Colts nailed this pick as far as I'm concerned. Giddens will be a contributor on all 3 downs as a RB immediately, and could eventually develop into a top end RB1. His running style is reminiscent of Jonathan Taylor's, and since my comp for Taylor was Arian Foster with rockets strapped to his cleats, the comps of Giddens I've seen to Arian Foster also make sense. When he catches the ball, Giddens is very reminiscent of Edgerrin James as a receiver, he even has a TD catch on a wheel route up the right sideline that looks like Edge's left sideline wheel route catch against the Commanders in 2000(?), and if he can get more consistent catching the ball, he'll be a legitimate weapon in the passing game. He's not great in pass pro, but his average with clear effort pass pro will likely open camp as the best RB pass pro skillset on the team, so expect to see a lot of him on 3rd down this year and beyond.

6.189 DT Warren Brinson - Getting more athleticism and pass rush at the DT position from a guy who probably should've gone all round or two earlier makes sense here. Also, deep DT rotation would be great.

6.190 OT Cameron Williams - The reason I didn't take Charles Grant at 80, Williams also could've gone a round or three earlier than he did. Athletic with great measurables for the position, don't be surprised if Stoutland turns this kid into a Pro Bowler.

7.232 LB Hunter Wohler - I skipped the pretense and listed him at the position he'll likely play for the Colts. If he seems undersized as a LB, look up Darius Leonard and Jamien Sherwood. Wohler is more athletic than both with shorter arms. This could end up as one of the steals of the draft.

BONUS: UDFAs
OT Logan Brown - Why not? Premiere athleticism, length, and experience. This profile doesn't go undrafted often.
OG Joe Huber - See above.
LB Jamon Dumas-Johnson - There’s something here to unlock, potential Zaire upgrade.
CB Tommi Hill - Early teams demon who could develop into a starting boundary CB.
DT Elijah Simmons - Athletic tree stump that should help to take away the opposing run game on the 30-40% of snaps Grover doesn't play.
EDGE Tyler Batty - Athletic power EDGE with decent production.
RB Donovan Edwards - Missed out on TreVeyon Henderson? Need a RB that can do everything you'd want out of a RB other than run the ball at an above average-elite level? Edwards is your man.

[Racehorse]

From everything I have watched and read, Walley is going to be a very good player in this league.

[HoosierinFL]

>> Don't be surprised to see Warren take a shotgun snap in a split backfield flanked by AR and JT/Giddens at some point in 2025.

I'm not too sure about this...has he played QB since high school? (not sure of Penn State ever used him at QB?)

I think Jason Bean is more likely to be used in such a role, if he makes the final roster.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by HoosierinFL

>> Don't be surprised to see Warren take a shotgun snap in a split backfield flanked by AR and JT/Giddens at some point in 2025.

I'm not too sure about this...has he played QB since high school? (not sure of Penn State ever used him at QB?)

I think Jason Bean is more likely to be used in such a role, if he makes the final roster.

He lined up at QB multiple times last year, got a few rushing TDs and even a passing TD I think. He even lined up at C and caught a TD pass on a play against USC.

[YDFL Commish]

Even though this is encouraging, remember that Nick Cross Started the first 2 games of his rookie season and got benched after 1 series of his 2nd game.

I'm not saying this will be the case for Walley, but for him to beat out both Jones and Brents would be quite an accomplishment.

[Mr. Session]

Originally Posted by YDFL Commish

Even though this is encouraging, remember that Nick Cross Started the first 2 games of his rookie season and got benched after 1 series of his 2nd game.

I'm not saying this will be the case for Walley, but for him to beat out both Jones and Brents would be quite an accomplishment.

This is similar to my take away. I’m not really sure what to think about this, these guys haven’t even suited up.

Brents is always hurt, so I get not giving him the nod there, but Jones? I don’t immediately understand how the rookie is instantly given the nod over Jones. What does he look like in pads?

Im not in the building but that feels more political than Meritocratic. Maybe it works out!

[IndyNorm]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

I did a full redraft based on where players went in the actual draft and the picks the Colts ended up with. This would've been my class:

1.14 TE Tyler Warren - The most obvious pick of the draft IMO after Cam Ward, Warren should give the Colts an elite receiver and average blocker at the TE position as a rookie, plus the versatility he offers should lead to some interesting packages Steichen draws up for the offense. Don't be surprised to see Warren take a shotgun snap in a split backfield flanked by AR and JT/Giddens at some point in 2025.

2.45 DT Darius Alexander - I don't have the option to here, but if I did, I'd probably trade down first given where he went in the actual draft. There are two other players I considered here: Omarr Norman-Lott and Shemar Turner. Obviously, I feel DT is a larger need than Ballard does. That's because while the Colts have two Pro Bowl starters in DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart, they're both 31, and behind them? Adetomiwa Adebawore, who hasn't translated elite traits into on field production to date, and career backup Neville Gallimore. By drafting Darius Alexander, the Colts would've given themselves a Milton Williams like player who could start out rotating in for 40-60% of snaps this year, then gradually increase his role as Buckner ages. So why Alexander instead of Turner or Norman-Lott? Ultimately it comes down to traits and projectability. Alexander is longer, bigger, and similar athletically to Turner, and while Norman-Lott had the best per snap pass rush production by far of any DT in this class, he has a similar issue that Adebawore had coming into the league in that he is currently pure liability against the run. Alexander was the best combination of size, length, athleticism, and production to potentially be an eventual Buckner replacement after Derrick Harmon in this draft, which makes him the obvious choice to me here.

3.80 S Kevin Winston Jr. - This is where the replacement value game starts. There are 3 players I considered here: Winston Jr., Josaiah Stewart, and Charles Grant. Those 3 players were incredibly close in value for me, too close to call in fact, so how do I make the decision? Look down the board. Do I think there's an edge rusher I can get later that's close in value to Stewart? Yes. Do I think there's a tackle I can get later that's close in value to Grant? Yes. Do I think there's a safety I can get later that's close in value to Winston Jr.? No, he's where the value falls off a cliff on the safety board. After him, you're sacrificing measurables, production, or both. I like Billy Bowman Jr. and Lathan Ransom, but both went before pick 127. As for Winston Jr., had he not been injured, he likely would've been a Top 25 talent in this year's class. The best word that can be used to describe a healthy Kevin Winston Jr. is eraser. He'll erase an opponent's TE or slot receiver in coverage, he's instinctual enough to read and erase a screen game, and he erases potentially big gain runs, holding them to small gains or even TFLs. I don't want to see a healthy Winston Jr. on the Titans.

4.127 EDGE Bradyn Swinson - The reason I didn't take Stewart earlier, Bradyn Swinson has an excellent combination of traits and production that make him an intriguing rotational EDGE rusher, and potential replacement for Kwity Paye should he leave in free agency.

5.151 RB D.J. Giddens - The Colts nailed this pick as far as I'm concerned. Giddens will be a contributor on all 3 downs as a RB immediately, and could eventually develop into a top end RB1. His running style is reminiscent of Jonathan Taylor's, and since my comp for Taylor was Arian Foster with rockets strapped to his cleats, the comps of Giddens I've seen to Arian Foster also make sense. When he catches the ball, Giddens is very reminiscent of Edgerrin James as a receiver, he even has a TD catch on a wheel route up the right sideline that looks like Edge's left sideline wheel route catch against the Commanders in 2000(?), and if he can get more consistent catching the ball, he'll be a legitimate weapon in the passing game. He's not great in pass pro, but his average with clear effort pass pro will likely open camp as the best RB pass pro skillset on the team, so expect to see a lot of him on 3rd down this year and beyond.

6.189 DT Warren Brinson - Getting more athleticism and pass rush at the DT position from a guy who probably should've gone all round or two earlier makes sense here. Also, deep DT rotation would be great.

6.190 OT Cameron Williams - The reason I didn't take Charles Grant at 80, Williams also could've gone a round or three earlier than he did. Athletic with great measurables for the position, don't be surprised if Stoutland turns this kid into a Pro Bowler.

7.232 LB Hunter Wohler - I skipped the pretense and listed him at the position he'll likely play for the Colts. If he seems undersized as a LB, look up Darius Leonard and Jamien Sherwood. Wohler is more athletic than both with shorter arms. This could end up as one of the steals of the draft.

BONUS: UDFAs
OT Logan Brown - Why not? Premiere athleticism, length, and experience. This profile doesn't go undrafted often.
OG Joe Huber - See above.
LB Jamon Dumas-Johnson - There’s something here to unlock, potential Zaire upgrade.
CB Tommi Hill - Early teams demon who could develop into a starting boundary CB.
DT Elijah Simmons - Athletic tree stump that should help to take away the opposing run game on the 30-40% of snaps Grover doesn't play.
EDGE Tyler Batty - Athletic power EDGE with decent production.
RB Donovan Edwards - Missed out on TreVeyon Henderson? Need a RB that can do everything you'd want out of a RB other than run the ball at an above average-elite level? Edwards is your man.

Can't disagree much with any of this.

During the 2nd round I was thinking Alexander would have made sense, but I think his relative lack of production against mid major talent was definitely a red flag (and I'm sure a big reason why he fell to the 3rd round). Plus I do like the Touimloau pick, especially if he can slide inside and rush the passer like Dayo did.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

Can't disagree much with any of this.

During the 2nd round I was thinking Alexander would have made sense, but I think his relative lack of production against mid major talent was definitely a red flag (and I'm sure a big reason why he fell to the 3rd round). Plus I do like the Touimloau pick, especially if he can slide inside and rush the passer like Dayo did.

I don't like Tuimoloau's low win rate, but Kollman seems to think that's a result of him being a team player as a pass rusher. We'll see if that's true in time, and if that's the case, I'll like the pick more. I still think the team needs a Buckner replacement sooner than later.

[IndyNorm]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

I still think the team needs a Buckner replacement sooner than later.

No disagreement there, which is why I brought up trading down in the 3rd and drafting Ty Robinson.