Quick Thoughts - Week 3

[sherck]

575 attempts / 326 completions / 56.7% / 3,739 yards / 20 TD / 28 INT

413 attempts / 204 completions / 49.3% / 3,303 yards / 17 TD / 34 INT

The first stat line is Peyton Manning's rookie year stats.

The second stat line is Anthony Richardson's projected 17 game stat line this year at the same rate as he produced in his first three games of the season.

Everyone forgets how much Colts fans were calling Peyton Manning a bust after his first season as a starter in the NFL.....

BTW:

PM = 015 rush attempts / 062 yards / 0 TD / 05 1st Downs (Rookie year)

AR = 141 rush attempts / 770 yards / 6 TD / 45 1st Downs (Projected)

How much is the threat of his running worth?

Just a little perspective.

[rcubed]

^^^ Sure, and I am not expecting AR to be peak PM in what is essentially his rookie season. However, I do expect him to be able to hit basic throws to open receivers, not sail 10-15 yards too deep, at least more consistent than he has been.


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[ChaosTheory]

Originally Posted by sherck

PM and AR stats.

I can appreciate the statistical comparison. However, I think myself and others are going more by the eyeball test.

I was 13 during Manning's rookie year and being in Texas, there wasn't much Colts talk. I've since gone back and watched a bunch of his rookie year and it's a different kind of struggle for AR. Actually... it's the same struggle but there's an additional element.

Manning had the typical rookie issues: overestimating windows, overestimating arm strength, getting fooled by coverages, over aggression, forcing balls instead of living for another play, miscommunication with receivers, etc.

AR experiences all of that and will learn and improve it. The added element, though, is his basic accuracy and consistency with that accuracy. We've seen pinpoint bombs and laser throws, we know he can do it. But his inconsistency on easy stuff is something Manning didn't have.

At least from what I remember. Good thing to always remember... he's the youngest QB in the league.

[apballin]

Yea comparing the numbers just isn’t accurate to me, not to Peyton anyway. Put his numbers next to Cam, Lamar, or Hurts.

I definitely recall Peyton’s rookie year and fans having doubts….

His 2nd season I was a junior in high school and went downtown bought tickets off a scalper because the game was blacked out locally because it didn’t sell out.

I was fuckin pissed… it ended up being one of the best decisions I ever made. We kicked the Titans ass that day and went on to have a hell of a season getting a 1st round bye in the playoffs.

That was the last time a game has ever been blacked out locally and the Manning doubters went away after that first home game that year

[ChoppedWood]

Originally Posted by apballin

Yea comparing the numbers just isn’t accurate to me, not to Peyton anyway. Put his numbers next to Cam, Lamar, or Hurts.

So easy to put him in that athletic QB's club and say that's what he is going to be, but not entirely sure if that is going to be the case. Not quite sure where he fits yet, and I don't think the league knows either.

In the running game he is really more of a half back, sort of more Derrick Henry giant power back moreso than Lamar with his unbelievable quicks and cuts. Cam is an interesting comparison, however with Cam it seemed like he perpetually lived in that RB wanting to be a QB space save for the one MVP season.

Hurts is probably the closest comparison in that club. Though not sure Hurts has near the cannon we see out of AR. He has developed a much more refined passing game than when he first arrived but I don't perceive him to be that 65 in the air guy or the 35 yard out on a rope guy.

To me, Josh Allen is the closest comparison. And heard some interesting talk about that very thing on the drive in this morning.

They were talking about the comparisons to Allen and how bad AR has looked with his 50% completion rate and 6 Ints and there was a question if AR could mature into JA- who is now not longer looked at as the same type of running back parading as a QB, but a talented NFL QB who can use his legs to win a game if called upon. Then someone reminded them- still the youngest QB in the league and despite the low completion rate, what you did not see from even Allen this early was this crazy contrast of horrible completion rate, 35 QBR, huge # of INT's, but also leading the league in YPC! They pointed out how he is already just 6 real games in, demonstrating his ability to strike fear in opponents because he can out throw the coverage on any chosen play and his coach is giving him the green light to do it. They noted he is making these highlight reel throws- from the pocket, not on what everyone expects or perceives from the athletic QB- i.e. breaking contain and hitting WR's who have separated due to the long time to cover. They brought up the Dulin TD pass and the throw to Granson yesterday- both high caliber QB play for different reasons, they talked about his recognition and on time delivery at times looking very much like a veteran QB, which they said was ahead of almost all rookies at this stage. Then they pointed out- he WON a game where he played awful. He owned that awfulness, and he spoke to the need to improve. Overall it was a reflection on how much of an enigma his game is in comparison to any other player.

I think we will know a great deal more about where he really fits, or if he has his own club, probably games 12-14 of this season. Until then, we just have to watch this thing play out and give him space to see if he can become what he and Steichen want him to be.

[apballin]

I definitely agree with that….. as erratic as his play has been at times defenses are scared to death of this guy and still don’t know how to attack him.

And to keep the comparison conversation going Allen is fair but he didn’t have a Jonathan Taylor at RB or nowhere near the Oline that AR has been gifted. Right now I’d say it’s just his lack of starts, Allen had more playing time at the position. Heard Holder on the radio saying he’s making the right reads so they’re satisfied with that just gotta get him to settle down set his feet and make the throws

[Discflinger]

Can we just let Anthony be Anthony?

[Discflinger]

A fact that I find interesting about Anthony is that his Chinese Zodiac is Horse...coincidence?

[IndyNorm]

Peyton actually threw 26 TDs his rookie year. And his rookie year was really a tale of 3 parts: the first 4 games where he was god awful (TD/Int was 3/11), the next 2 games where there was some marginal improvement (TD/Int 3/3), and then the light really went on in game 7 against the 9ers (where the refs robbed us of a win w/ some BS Def. PI and holding calls) and from that point on he played well enough to where most Colts fans were super excited and couldn't wait for the '99 season (TD/Int 20/14).

If AR does something similar then I think we'll all be happy with that. The concerning thing on AR for me is that he's regressed from last year. I know he only played in 2 full games last season, but last year he wasn't missing on his throws anywhere near as bad as he is now or making as bad of decisions.

[YDFL Commish]

I remember watching that game against the 49'rs, and I believe the league admitted the officiating errors later that week.

I would also say that the Jets game (W) and the Ravens game (L) were big turning points in the organization realizing that they had something special.