Who do you want at 15?

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by YDFL Commish

Good point. So let's do the math.

Likely to be picked in the top 14:

4 QB's
3 WR's
3 EDGE
2 OT's
1 TE
1 CB

Where do you get 3 EDGE? If Atlanta stays at 8 and drafts an EDGE, Chicago will likely have Odunze or Nabers fall into their lap and pick whichever WR falls to them, likely Odunze. The Jets are drafting a weapon or a OT, the Broncos may go QB and the Raiders could, too, and they likely go OT if not QB, maybe CB. Saints will also likely go OT.

I think what you'll have in the top 14 is:
5 QBs
3 WRs
1 EDGE
1 TE
3-4 OT
0-1 CB

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by nate505

So, just curious, who is the one guy that could fall to #15 that you would be irate for a trade down (barring some sort of unrealistic trade, like a 3 first rounders this and next year).

Like this mock draft has Brock Bowers falling to the Colts. While I don't think it will play out this way, it seems at least in the realm of possibility:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/...bs-go-round-1/

If Ballard trades out of the 15 with Bowers on the board for like a 23 and a 41, I'll be upset. I get the "more bites of the apple" philosophy, but sometimes it's better to have one bigger bite.

That said, if it's a guy like Terrion Arnold (who I like and want them to draft), I'll be less upset. Probably Bowers and one of the top 3 WRs (who won't likely be there) are it for me, and Dallas Turner (I don't even want an Edge rusher really, but I won't hate it especially if it's him).

If Bowers is on the board at 15, I think he's the pick. That said, I wouldn't be mad at a trade out there. At 23, you probably still get Latu or A. Mitchell at least, maybe have to settle for Johnny Newton, who is by no means a terrible consolation prize, and you get another top 50 player out of the deal. That said, there are ways to address all the important needs in this draft no matter who is selected in the first round. IMO, the Colts should come away with a starting caliber WR and CB from this draft (and I only say WR because this class is so good). Other than that, they need to build depth for the future. I think one of the first 2 picks will be spent on a WR and one of the first 3 will be spent on a CB. Beyond that, I think BPA is the best bet.

[IndyNorm]

Originally Posted by nate505

So, just curious, who is the one guy that could fall to #15 that you would be irate for a trade down (barring some sort of unrealistic trade, like a 3 first rounders this and next year).

Like this mock draft has Brock Bowers falling to the Colts. While I don't think it will play out this way, it seems at least in the realm of possibility:

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/...bs-go-round-1/

If Ballard trades out of the 15 with Bowers on the board for like a 23 and a 41, I'll be upset. I get the "more bites of the apple" philosophy, but sometimes it's better to have one bigger bite.

That said, if it's a guy like Terrion Arnold (who I like and want them to draft), I'll be less upset. Probably Bowers and one of the top 3 WRs (who won't likely be there) are it for me, and Dallas Turner (I don't even want an Edge rusher really, but I won't hate it especially if it's him).

If either Bowers or BTJ is evaluable and we trade down and miss either or both of them then I'll be pissed off. Actually the more that I think about it the more I'd like to see us trade up to ensure we get one of those 2, or better yet make a big move into the top 10 to get one of the 3 elite WRs. I know chances are slim to none of us trading up, but we have enough solid contributors. What we need more of is elite level difference makers.

[ChaosTheory]

Originally Posted by YDFL Commish

Good point. So let's do the math.

Likely to be picked in the top 14:

4 QB's
3 WR's
3 EDGE
2 OT's
1 TE
1 CB

Originally Posted by Dam8610

Where do you get 3 EDGE? If Atlanta stays at 8 and drafts an EDGE, Chicago will likely have Odunze or Nabers fall into their lap and pick whichever WR falls to them, likely Odunze. The Jets are drafting a weapon or a OT, the Broncos may go QB and the Raiders could, too, and they likely go OT if not QB, maybe CB. Saints will also likely go OT.

I think what you'll have in the top 14 is:
5 QBs
3 WRs
1 EDGE
1 TE
3-4 OT
0-1 CB

I tend to anticipate Dam's prediction more likely. For example, for what it's worth, here's a mock draft collab with the Bootleg guys (I like them) and a couple of PFF guys.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCf2yd8ZZ74&t=3019s

Their mock includes some hypothetical trades (e.g. LAC trades down twice from 5 to 11 and then 11 to 18). All that said, this is what their top 14 looked like:

1. CHI QB Williams
2. WAS QB Maye
3. NE QB Daniels
4. ARZ WR Harrison
5. MIN QB McCarthy
6. NYG WR Nabers
7. TEN OL Alt
8. ATL DL Newton
9. CHI WR Odunze
10. NYJ OL Fautanu
11. CIN OL Fuaga
12. DEN QB Nix
13. LVR QB Penix
14. NO OL Fashanu

So 6 QBs, 4 OL, 3 WR, and Newton. They have Quinyon Mitchell falling into our laps. Besides Mitchell, guys like Bowers, Thomas, Latu, Verse, Turner, etc. still available.

It's just a mock, but I've seen several other articles that indicate this kind of distribution which would leave the Colts a bunch of good options (including trading).

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by ChaosTheory

I tend to anticipate Dam's prediction more likely. For example, for what it's worth, here's a mock draft collab with the Bootleg guys (I like them) and a couple of PFF guys.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hCf2yd8ZZ74&t=3019s

Their mock includes some hypothetical trades (e.g. LAC trades down twice from 5 to 11 and then 11 to 18). All that said, this is what their top 14 looked like:

1. CHI QB Williams
2. WAS QB Maye
3. NE QB Daniels
4. ARZ WR Harrison
5. MIN QB McCarthy
6. NYG WR Nabers
7. TEN OL Alt
8. ATL DL Newton
9. CHI WR Odunze
10. NYJ OL Fautanu
11. CIN OL Fuaga
12. DEN QB Nix
13. LVR QB Penix
14. NO OL Fashanu

So 6 QBs, 4 OL, 3 WR, and Newton. They have Quinyon Mitchell falling into our laps. Besides Mitchell, guys like Bowers, Thomas, Latu, Verse, Turner, etc. still available.

It's just a mock, but I've seen several other articles that indicate this kind of distribution which would leave the Colts a bunch of good options (including trading).

What I didn't like about their Colts pick in that mock was Brock Bowers was right there and they both just went, "Oh, Quinyon's there, take Quinyon". I get he's a pretty chalk pick for the Colts at 15, but not when Brock Bowers is staring you in the face. If Bowers is there, I'd expect the first 3 rounds to go something like:

15) TE Brock Bowers
46) WR Ricky Pearsall
82) CB Cam Hart

Which is a damn good first 3 rounds for the Colts.

[Racehorse]

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

If either Bowers or BTJ is evaluable and we trade down and miss either or both of them then I'll be pissed off. Actually the more that I think about it the more I'd like to see us trade up to ensure we get one of those 2, or better yet make a big move into the top 10 to get one of the 3 elite WRs. I know chances are slim to none of us trading up, but we have enough solid contributors. What we need more of is elite level difference makers.

I have heard that the bottom of this draft will be weaker than usual due to NIL deals for college players who would have been late round picks, so trading up and losing a sixth or seventh would not hurt much. However, I think it will take more than that to move up enough to get a good player.

[ukcolt]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

If Bowers is on the board at 15, I think he's the pick. That said, I wouldn't be mad at a trade out there. At 23, you probably still get Latu or A. Mitchell at least, maybe have to settle for Johnny Newton, who is by no means a terrible consolation prize, and you get another top 50 player out of the deal. That said, there are ways to address all the important needs in this draft no matter who is selected in the first round. IMO, the Colts should come away with a starting caliber WR and CB from this draft (and I only say WR because this class is so good). Other than that, they need to build depth for the future. I think one of the first 2 picks will be spent on a WR and one of the first 3 will be spent on a CB. Beyond that, I think BPA is the best bet.

Being an Illini fan i love Johnny Newton, but we don't need any more interior DL depth in my opinion.

We already have Stewart, Buckner, Davis, Adebawore, Bryan, Johnson and then Odeyingbo and Lewis who move inside at times as well.

The starters are two of the better players at the position in the NFL, we then signed Davis to a decent sized contract to backup Stewart, which was our weakness last year (Newton is not the guy who would be replacing Stewart). The Colts clearly like Bryan as a rotational substitute for Buckner. Johnson, Adebawore and Bryan are likely fighting for 1 maybe only 2 spots.

At DE we have a solid, but not spectacular group that comprises; Paye, Ebukam, Odeyingbo, Lewis, Avery, Land, Leo, adding a 1st rounder here wouldn't be out of the question.

I think the Colts generally had 9 or 10 defensive linemen on their roster throughout last season. Lets say its 10, that in my eyes would be in order of priority, Buckner, Stewart, Ebukam, Paye, Davis, Odeyingbo, Lewis, Bryan, Avery and then the final guy would be between Land and Adebawore.

[YDFL Commish]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

Where do you get 3 EDGE? If Atlanta stays at 8 and drafts an EDGE, Chicago will likely have Odunze or Nabers fall into their lap and pick whichever WR falls to them, likely Odunze. The Jets are drafting a weapon or a OT, the Broncos may go QB and the Raiders could, too, and they likely go OT if not QB, maybe CB. Saints will also likely go OT.

I think what you'll have in the top 14 is:
5 QBs
3 WRs
1 EDGE
1 TE
3-4 OT
0-1 CB

Between Verse, Turner, Robinson and Latu, I expect 3 of them to be gone. NFL teams over draft EDGE almost as much as the over draft QB.

[njcoltfan]

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

To play a little devil's advocate, AR needs weapons in the passing game, which IMO will make it tough to pass on Bowers and/or BTJ if either is there at 15.

Also, based on the stats it looks like Verse disappeared for stretches during this past season. I didn't watch much of FSU this year, so could be that the stats are misleading. Of course Ballard has never really considered college production in his draft evaluation, so there's that too.

AR has weapons, MPJ, Downs, Pierce and JT. What this team doesn't have is a legitimate pass rusher, and Ballard knows it. This years draft is deep in WR and CB, so IMHO, if Ballard can draft a pass rushing, get to QB stud he should.

[apballin]

Originally Posted by njcoltfan

AR has weapons, MPJ, Downs, Pierce and JT. What this team doesn't have is a legitimate pass rusher, and Ballard knows it. This years draft is deep in WR and CB, so IMHO, if Ballard can draft a pass rushing, get to QB stud he should.

The offense has no outside speed, heavily invested in defense. They’ve gotta make things easier for Richardson, get him an elite weapon that’s ready to play right away