Denver caught their rainbow

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

My lack of valuing the premium positions comment is mainly based on Ballard's lack of investment at WR (in 6 years the only real investment he's put into the position is 2 2nd round draft picks) and his handling of the LT situation which up to this point has been a disaster. Hopefully Raimann pans out and rights the ship there. But even if he does it was still at least a big short term fuck up that Ballard could have avoided.

Ballard also traded out of the 1st round in '19, which next to '17 is probably his worst draft. Agree on Buckner and Wentz trades. You just made it sound like Ballard's hands have been tied a bit b/c he hasn't had a full allotment of picks frequently, so I wanted to point out that it was his doing.

Ballard's invested 3 2nd round picks in WR (Campbell, Pittman, Pierce), and it's starting to look like all 3 of them will be valuable contributors for the Colts moving forward, provided they re-sign Campbell, which I think they should.

After Raimann was a Top 10 OT in football for the second half of last season in his third year of playing football at any level, I doubt he's going to regress to being a bad player.

Also, interestingly, the '19 trade down that you brought up also serves to illustrate Ballard's weakness at evaluating DE talent. I wanted Montez Sweat that year, didn't think he'd be there at 26. I remember my heart leaping up when Sweat fell to 26, then being completely deflated when I saw the trade down with the Commies, who then drafted Sweat, who has been a quality starter and pass rusher for them. Ironically, that 34th pick that was acquired in the trade down was used to select Rock Ya-Sin, who was eventually traded for Yannick Ngakoue, so in the end, the Colts did end up with a pass rusher from that 26th pick.

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

You could maybe make the argument for 2020, but you're definitely counting your chickens way before they've hatched for the '22 draft class in that statement.

I'm very confident that the Colts have 2 high quality starters from the 2022 draft going forward in Bernhard Raimann and Rodney Thomas II. A good Polian draft produced 3 starters, so for Ballard's 2022 draft to be better than a good Polian draft, and therefore my statement to be right, I need two of Alec Pierce, Jelani Woods, and Nick Cross to develop into at least decent starters, which I don't view as all that unlikely.

[IndyNorm]

Ballard's invested 3 2nd round picks in WR (Campbell, Pittman, Pierce), and it's starting to look like all 3 of them will be valuable contributors for the Colts moving forward, provided they re-sign Campbell, which I think they should.

I forgot about Campbell. Still 3 2nd round picks in 6 years isn't much investment in such a critical position. I'm on the fence w/ re-signing Campbell. As long as he comes cheap we probably should, but Ballard needs to hedge and not just trust that he's going to stay healthy. I doubt he will though b/c Ballard doesn't really hedge his bets, which is a huge weakness of his.

Also, not sold on Pierce. He pretty much disappeared in the 2nd half of the season, but that could be the whole coaching dumpster fire at fault. Also, even when he was productive early in the season he wasn't getting much (if any) separation. I think he'll be ok, but it's just concerning IMO.

After Raimann was a Top 10 OT in football for the second half of last season in his third year of playing football at any level, I doubt he's going to regress to being a bad player.

I tend to agree. He should progress and not regress, but Ballard needs to bring in quality depth just in case (again something that he's bad at). At the very least a decent swing OT to hedge injuries.

Also, interestingly, the '19 trade down that you brought up also serves to illustrate Ballard's weakness at evaluating DE talent. I wanted Montez Sweat that year, didn't think he'd be there at 26. I remember my heart leaping up when Sweat fell to 26, then being completely deflated when I saw the trade down with the Commies, who then drafted Sweat, who has been a quality starter and pass rusher for them. Ironically, that 34th pick that was acquired in the trade down was used to select Rock Ya-Sin, who was eventually traded for Yannick Ngakoue, so in the end, the Colts did end up with a pass rusher from that 26th pick.

In hindsight we should have taken Sweat, but wasn't there a lot of concern w/ a heart condition that he had? If so then I don't think you can blame Ballard for passing on him there.

I'm very confident that the Colts have 2 high quality starters from the 2022 draft going forward in Bernhard Raimann and Rodney Thomas II. A good Polian draft produced 3 starters, so for Ballard's 2022 draft to be better than a good Polian draft, and therefore my statement to be right, I need two of Alec Pierce, Jelani Woods, and Nick Cross to develop into at least decent starters, which I don't view as all that unlikely.

Still you're counting your chickens before the hatch. You may be right about the overall contributors, but I don't see any all pro, high end talent types in the draft. Most Polian drafts had at least 1 if not 2 of those type of players.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

I forgot about Campbell. Still 3 2nd round picks in 6 years isn't much investment in such a critical position. I'm on the fence w/ re-signing Campbell. As long as he comes cheap we probably should, but Ballard needs to hedge and not just trust that he's going to stay healthy. I doubt he will though b/c Ballard doesn't really hedge his bets, which is a huge weakness of his.

Also, not sold on Pierce. He pretty much disappeared in the 2nd half of the season, but that could be the whole coaching dumpster fire at fault. Also, even when he was productive early in the season he wasn't getting much (if any) separation. I think he'll be ok, but it's just concerning IMO.

What I saw in the first half of the season was enough to give me hope that he'll be a good WR2 going forward, he was getting decent separation and winning contested catches then. Maybe the second half disappearance had something to do with the coaching change and/or dumpster fire level of play from the QB position? Might be something to go back and investigate, I know Campbell was consistently getting open and being missed by the QBs toward the end of the season.

How would you recommend Ballard hedge his bet on Campbell being the team's slot receiver next year?

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

I tend to agree. He should progress and not regress, but Ballard needs to bring in quality depth just in case (again something that he's bad at). At the very least a decent swing OT to hedge injuries.

A swing tackle is a great idea, and I'd love to see it, but a lot of times, guys who have success in those roles end up getting signed as starters to other teams because of the dearth of OL talent in the NFL generally.

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

In hindsight we should have taken Sweat, but wasn't there a lot of concern w/ a heart condition that he had? If so then I don't think you can blame Ballard for passing on him there.

He did have a heart condition, but 6'6" 260 DEs with some developed rush moves that run a 4.41 40 and a 7.00 3 cone just don't fall to 26. MPJ is a nice consolation prize, though.

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

Still you're counting your chickens before the hatch. You may be right about the overall contributors, but I don't see any all pro, high end talent types in the draft. Most Polian drafts had at least 1 if not 2 of those type of players.

There's some level of projection there, there has to be given they just completed their rookie season, but honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if any or all of Pierce, Woods, Raimann, and Cross made Pro Bowls or All-Pro teams. Not saying any of them are a lock by any means, just that they're talented enough to be there. I could also see Rodney Thomas II making a Pro Bowl at some point, though I'd put that one as even less likely. Of them, I'd put Raimann and Woods as the most likely to do it.

[YDFL Commish]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

There's some level of projection there, there has to be given they just completed their rookie season, but honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if any or all of Pierce, Woods, Raimann, and Cross made Pro Bowls or All-Pro teams. Not saying any of them are a lock by any means, just that they're talented enough to be there. I could also see Rodney Thomas II making a Pro Bowl at some point, though I'd put that one as even less likely. Of them, I'd put Raimann and Woods as the most likely to do it.

I don't know how you can project Cross to a Pro Bowl? He's shown nothing. Did you mean Thomas?

Not that it matters the Pro Bowl now a days, is a meaningless achievement.

[YDFL Commish]

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

So what's the point in bringing in QBs like Rivers, Wentz, and Ryan then? Using your logic then they've been a waste of cap dollars and in Wentz and Ryan's cases draft capitol as well.

Well they were a waste in every way. Two didn't show enough to build around and the other retired.

Had Wentz produced to near franchise QB status,
Irsay would've been knocking down Ballmer's door begging for more weapons.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by YDFL Commish

I don't know how you can project Cross to a Pro Bowl? He's shown nothing. Did you mean Thomas?

Not that it matters the Pro Bowl now a days, is a meaningless achievement.

There's a lot of projection there, and I'd put him as the least likely of the bunch currently, but writing off a safety entering his age 22 season with his physical gifts as a guy who won't contribute doesn't seem smart.

[IndyNorm]

What I saw in the first half of the season was enough to give me hope that he'll be a good WR2 going forward, he was getting decent separation and winning contested catches then. Maybe the second half disappearance had something to do with the coaching change and/or dumpster fire level of play from the QB position? Might be something to go back and investigate, I know Campbell was consistently getting open and being missed by the QBs toward the end of the season.

I agree. I think Pierce has a bright future, and that the coaching/QBs fiascos in the 2nd half of the season probably had a lot to do w/ him completely falling off. I didn't see him getting much separation, mostly contested catches in the first half of the season. But I did miss a couple of games for different reasons, so maybe I missed them there.

How would you recommend Ballard hedge his bet on Campbell being the team's slot receiver next year?

Spend a mid round draft pick or bring in a FA w/ a similar skill set. It doesn't have to be a big name. Just someone who can fill in when Campbell in all likelihood gets hurt again.

A swing tackle is a great idea, and I'd love to see it, but a lot of times, guys who have success in those roles end up getting signed as starters to other teams because of the dearth of OL talent in the NFL generally.

I know it's easier said than done, but Ballard needs to make this a priority. If he's unable to bring in quality FA depth then he needs to spend at least 1 day 2 pick on OT and probably another early day 3 pick on OG/OT. Even if he lands some depth in FA he should probably still spend some decent draft capital on our OL, since as last year painfully proved the unit is well overdue an influx of talent.

He did have a heart condition, but 6'6" 260 DEs with some developed rush moves that run a 4.41 40 and a 7.00 3 cone just don't fall to 26. MPJ is a nice consolation prize, though.

No doubt. In hindsight we should have picked Sweat. I was just saying that I don't think you can blame Ballard for not taking him due to the heart condition. And it's not like we were the only team to pass on him b/c he probably would have gone in the top 10 if not for the heart concerns.

There's some level of projection there, there has to be given they just completed their rookie season, but honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if any or all of Pierce, Woods, Raimann, and Cross made Pro Bowls or All-Pro teams. Not saying any of them are a lock by any means, just that they're talented enough to be there. I could also see Rodney Thomas II making a Pro Bowl at some point, though I'd put that one as even less likely. Of them, I'd put Raimann and Woods as the most likely to do it.

I think Woods has the most upside and potential to be at the pro bowl/all pro level. Obviously he needs to become more consistent and our new coaching staff will have to incorporate him more than Frank did, but I can see it happening. Also, I think Thomas could make it to a pro bowl, since he seems like a good ball hawk.

I doubt Raimann will ever be in the pro bowl. Not that that means I don't think he'll work out, but for OL getting the pro bowl nod is more about reputation and incumbency than who actually had the best year. Q making the pro bowl this year is a perfect example of that.

Also, saying Cross has pro bowl potential at this point is a huge reach. I know he's a great athlete and young, but he was benched after 2 games and pretty much didn't see the field other than ST for the remainder of the season. Not saying we should give up on him, but as it stands now he's more likely to be a traits only bust rather than a pro bowler.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

I agree. I think Pierce has a bright future, and that the coaching/QBs fiascos in the 2nd half of the season probably had a lot to do w/ him completely falling off. I didn't see him getting much separation, mostly contested catches in the first half of the season. But I did miss a couple of games for different reasons, so maybe I missed them there.

There were a couple of times I saw separation early in the year, but I'd have to go back and watch him specifically to really know beyond the flashes I remember seeing early in the season.

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

Spend a mid round draft pick or bring in a FA w/ a similar skill set. It doesn't have to be a big name. Just someone who can fill in when Campbell in all likelihood gets hurt again.

Certainly wouldn't be opposed to a mid round WR. Don't think you're going to find that in free agency.

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

I know it's easier said than done, but Ballard needs to make this a priority. If he's unable to bring in quality FA depth then he needs to spend at least 1 day 2 pick on OT and probably another early day 3 pick on OG/OT. Even if he lands some depth in FA he should probably still spend some decent draft capital on our OL, since as last year painfully proved the unit is well overdue an influx of talent.

Provided they're not giving up all of their draft capital moving up, I see this as a sound strategy. They probably need 2 IOL and 1 OT, but all backups, so some combination of free agency and the draft should accomplish this.

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

No doubt. In hindsight we should have picked Sweat. I was just saying that I don't think you can blame Ballard for not taking him due to the heart condition. And it's not like we were the only team to pass on him b/c he probably would have gone in the top 10 if not for the heart concerns.

Oh he absolutely would've gone top 10 without the heart condition. I thought he was worth the risk at the time.

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

I think Woods has the most upside and potential to be at the pro bowl/all pro level. Obviously he needs to become more consistent and our new coaching staff will have to incorporate him more than Frank did, but I can see it happening. Also, I think Thomas could make it to a pro bowl, since he seems like a good ball hawk.

Jelani Woods's college tape looks like Rob Gronkowski put on a Virginia #0 uniform and started playing. So yes, I agree that he's the most likely.

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

I doubt Raimann will ever be in the pro bowl. Not that that means I don't think he'll work out, but for OL getting the pro bowl nod is more about reputation and incumbency than who actually had the best year. Q making the pro bowl this year is a perfect example of that.

Here's the thing about Raimann: last year was his third year of playing football at any level. He was a Top 10 OT for the second half of the season. Most players that reach the NFL are at least in their 8th year of playing football in their rookie season (4 high school, 3 college, 1 NFL). I fully believe the term exponential growth could apply here. He could become one of the best OTs in the NFL.

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

Also, saying Cross has pro bowl potential at this point is a huge reach. I know he's a great athlete and young, but he was benched after 2 games and pretty much didn't see the field other than ST for the remainder of the season. Not saying we should give up on him, but as it stands now he's more likely to be a traits only bust rather than a pro bowler.

Some perspective: Nick Cross's age 21 season was his rookie season in the NFL. Antoine Bethea's age 21 season was his senior year in college. Bob Sanders's age 21 season was his junior year in college. Next year will be important, but he has time to improve, and development isn't linear.

[IndyNorm]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

Here's the thing about Raimann: last year was his third year of playing football at any level. He was a Top 10 OT for the second half of the season. Most players that reach the NFL are at least in their 8th year of playing football in their rookie season (4 high school, 3 college, 1 NFL). I fully believe the term exponential growth could apply here. He could become one of the best OTs in the NFL.



Some perspective: Nick Cross's age 21 season was his rookie season in the NFL. Antoine Bethea's age 21 season was his senior year in college. Bob Sanders's age 21 season was his junior year in college. Next year will be important, but he has time to improve, and development isn't linear.

I'm not saying Raimann isn't going to pan out. The 2nd half of the year definitely showed a ton of promise and as you pointed out with his lack of experience he should make significant strides. The point I was trying to make is that in a lot of if not most cases the best performing OLmen don't make the pro bowl/all pro teams (especially the pro bowl). For example AC had a very good career with the Colts but didn't make a single pro bowl or all pro team. If Raimann ends up having a similar career w/ the Colts we should (and most of us will) be very happy w/ that.

As for Cross, I full understand his youth and athleticism. But if I were asked to put $100 (or really any amount of money) on if he'll make a pro bowl or not I'd definitely put my money on no based on the current knowledge I have on him.

[JAFF]

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

I'm not saying Raimann isn't going to pan out. The 2nd half of the year definitely showed a ton of promise and as you pointed out with his lack of experience he should make significant strides. The point I was trying to make is that in a lot of if not most cases the best performing OLmen don't make the pro bowl/all pro teams (especially the pro bowl). For example AC had a very good career with the Colts but didn't make a single pro bowl or all pro team. If Raimann ends up having a similar career w/ the Colts we should (and most of us will) be very happy w/ that.

As for Cross, I full understand his youth and athleticism. But if I were asked to put $100 (or really any amount of money) on if he'll make a pro bowl or not I'd definitely put my money on no based on the current knowledge I have on him.

Tarik Glenn didnt get near the credit he deserved