The "official"whose gonna bail Omaha out of jail before kickoff game day thread!!

[rm1369]

Originally Posted by Maniac

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Being aggressive at times is fine. At that point in the game, you put your team up by 7 and force them to score a TD AND a 2 point conversion if they want to beat you. If their analytics tells them otherwise, then their analytics is fucking dumb too.

I get disagreeing but the idea it is “fucking dumb” is a little out there. Even the IndyStar analysis that supported kicking seems to show a fairly small advantage by kicking (although they misrepresent their own numbers). First, kicking the field goal would actually lower their win chance by 1.5%. Converting would increase it by 4.5%. So a swing of 6% between kicking and going for it and converting. Going for it and not converting lowered their win % by 9.3%. That’s a net 7.8% difference between kicking and going for it and not converting (not the 10% the article says). The league average conversion rate on 4th and 1 is 56.3%. This hardly the obvious stupid call you are trying to make it out to be.

And none of that takes into account the 3rd string LT and the largely stagnant 2nd half offense. That is a major factor in my support for going for it. .