Smitty’s 2020 NFL 1st Round Mock Draft

[AlwaysSunnyinIndy]

Thanks Smitty for the write-up. I don't follow much college football so it is appreciated.

Originally Posted by smitty46953

1st things first, I see a couple early trades:
1. Dolphins trading the 1.05 & 2.07 to the Lions for pick 1.03 to insure they can grab fan favorite Tua Tagvailoa
2. Lions trade the 1.05 to the Colts for the 1.13 and the 2.02

One comment about the trades: I doubt either of these will occur as proposed. While they appear to be equal "value" when looking at a Draft Value Chart, when multiple teams are interested in trading up for a QB, a premium is usually paid.

For instance, review the two trades early in the 2018 draft including the Colts-Jets trade:

Colts traded: 1.03 (value = 2200)
Jets traded: 1.06, 2.37, 2.49 and future 2nd (value = 2800+)

So the Jets had to pay almost a 30% premium to move up 3 spots in the first round where they eventually selected Sam Darnold.

Similarly, look at the Tampa Bay - Buffalo trade that same year:

Bucs traded: 1.07, 7.255 (value = 1501)
Bills traded: 1.12, 2.53 and 2.56 (value = 1910)

The Bills also paid about a 30% premium to move up 5 spots from 12 to 7 so that they could draft Josh Allen.

The premium can vary from year to year based on the number of teams looking to trade up as well as the number of teams looking to trade down. Supply and demand.

If the premium was ~30% again this year, the proposed trades would look like this:

Lions trade: 1.03 (value = 2200)
Dolphins trade: 1.05, 2.39, 2.56 and future 2nd (value = 2800+)

and

Lions trade: 1.05 (value = 1700)
Colts trade: 1.13, 2.34, and 2.44 (value = 2170)


Will the Dolphins still make the trade to move up 2 spots surrendering both their 2nd round picks this year and their 2nd next year? If Tua's medicals check out, probably so. (they have two additional 1st's this year acquired via trades anyway)

Will the Colts trade their top 3 picks this year to move up 8 spots to grab a QB? If they really like the QB, probably so.

The Lions would make out like bandits receiving five 2nd round picks to move down 10 spots. The last two drafts had a lot of really good players from picks 20 - 70 meaning it was advantageous to acquire 2nd round picks. Many analysts stated it was hard to mock those drafts because there was little difference from pick 20 to pick 70. Does the draft this year have the same quality and depth from 20 - 70?