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Old 01-14-2019, 10:49 AM
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sherck sherck is offline
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Default Cap Space Hell 2019 Atlanta Falcons Edition

I am starting to go through a position group review for the team looking at our players under contract for 2019, our 2019 free agents and then other team’s free agents we might be interested in signing (thus the Colts tie in).


While doing that for the DT position group, I have run across a team whom is what happens when you don’t manage your salary cap very well, The Atlanta Falcons.


$189.000m = Projected 2019 NFL Salary Cap
$004.667m = Falcons 2018 Roll-Over
===========
$193.667m = 2019 Atlanta Falcons Cap Space


$171.417m = All Current Contract Obligations (49 players)
$001.312m = Dead Money
$001.200m = Spots 50 & 51 on roster (since they only have 49 signed currently)
$001.200m = Spots 52 & 53 on eventual roster (Off-Season only counts top 51 contracts)
$003.500m = Delta between draft class and bottom paid guys already filling top 53 spots
$001.800m = 10-man Practice Squad
$003.000m = 2019 In-Season “Churn” Space
===========
$183.429m = Total Current Obligations

$010.238m = Free Cap Space

Okay, Sherck, what is the deal? They have positive cap space so how are they in cap hell?

2019 Falcon Free Agents:

DT Grady Jarrett, starting 3-tech, UFA, arguable top 5 DT in league
DT Terrell McClain, starting 1-tech, UFA, average NFL starting caliber player
RB Tevin Colman, starting RB, UFA, above average NFL starting caliber player
OG Ben Garland, starting OG, UFA, above average NFL starting caliber player

OT Ty Sambrailo, OT3, UFA, Le’Raven Clark type player; on border of being NFL above average
SS Jordan Richards, Safety3, UFA, early starter supplanted by younger player but still played a lot
TE Logan Paulsen, TE2, UFA, average NFL starter
QB Matt Schaub, QB2, UFA, whatever

Oh, they have 4 starters (1 superstar) and 4 quality depth guys to consider signing some combination of them with only $10m in free cap space. Oops.

So, who could they cut to open up some more cap space?

Top Players to Cut to Free up the Most Cap Space:

$12.810m = DE Vic Beasley, Starting DE (playing on 5th year option of rookie contract)
$08.133m = WR Julio Jones, Starting WR stud (will be 30 years old for 2019)
$07.900m = CB Robert Alford, Starting CB (will be 30 years old for 2019)
$05.950m = OC Alex Mack, Starting OC stud (will be 33 years old for 2019)
$04.600m = WR Mohamed Sanu, Starting WR (will be 30 years old for 2019)
$04.500m = DE Brooks Reed, DE3, (will be 32 years old for 2019)
$03.950m = OT Ryan Schraeder, Starting OT (will be 31 years old for 2019)

So, 2 of their starting front four (DT and DT) are free agents, a starting DE is the guy that will free up the most cap space if cut (as a 5th year player) and your 32 year old DE3 will free up the 6th most space in order to retain Grady Jackson.

Oh, are they cutting either of their starting Wide Receivers?

Robbing Peter to pay Paul.

THIS is what salary cap hell looks like. They CANNOT let a talent like Grady Jarrett get away; he is young, way talented and an impact player. However, to pay him in the $17m per year range like Aaron Donald or Kawann Short, they need to cut starting players who will make holes at other positions.

Depending on how they navigate this mess, one or more of the following players might be let onto the market of whom I would be interested in the Colts taking a look at:

DT Grady Jarrett
RB Telvin Coleman
SS Jordan Richards
WR Julio Jones
WR Mohamed Sanu
DE Vic Beasley

That is an aging roster whom they are paying a lot of players on the wrong side of 30 years old $10+m per season in order to play. This is what cap hell looks like.

They are not the worse in the league by far but they have a number of players whom could look good with the horseshoe on the side of their helmet for 2019.

Walk Worthy,
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Last edited by sherck; 01-14-2019 at 01:23 PM.
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Old 01-14-2019, 11:10 AM
Dam8610 Dam8610 is offline
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They probably have some restructuring they can do to make room for their important guys. That's what Polian always did to save the Colts from cap hell.
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Old 01-14-2019, 11:11 AM
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My first thought (less that 48 hours into the offseason) was that we should have a look at Beasley...
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Old 01-14-2019, 11:44 AM
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FYI it's Grady Jarrett. Grady Jackson actually did play DT for the Falcons 10ish years ago though.

Sanu would not be a bad WR2, he probably can't be re-signed.

Coleman at RB is interesting. Is he an upgrade over Mack? I don't know much about him as a pro, I liked him as a draft prospect.

No chance they'll let Julio Jones go. Almost as certain about not letting Jarrett go. Obviously either of those would be no-brainers but I don't think we'll get the chance.

I'm not necessarily convinced Jarrett is a top 5 DT. Maybe top 10ish. Off the top of my head I'd put Aaron Donald, Fletcher Cox, Geno Atkins, healthy Jurrell Casey, Kawann Short, Deforrest Buckner, Chris Jones, Akiem Hicks, and Cam Heyward at or above his level. Maybe others. Good player though and definitely an upgrade. And as of December they were far apart w/the Falcons on contract.

I would not mind Mack at all as backup for our center and guard spots. Just a question of if he'd accept that role on a potential contender after being a high-end starting center his whole career. My guess is he'll stay where he is.
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Old 01-14-2019, 01:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FatDT View Post
FYI it's Grady Jarrett. Grady Jackson actually did play DT for the Falcons 10ish years ago though.

Sanu would not be a bad WR2, he probably can't be re-signed.

Coleman at RB is interesting. Is he an upgrade over Mack? I don't know much about him as a pro, I liked him as a draft prospect.

No chance they'll let Julio Jones go. Almost as certain about not letting Jarrett go. Obviously either of those would be no-brainers but I don't think we'll get the chance.

I'm not necessarily convinced Jarrett is a top 5 DT. Maybe top 10ish. Off the top of my head I'd put Aaron Donald, Fletcher Cox, Geno Atkins, healthy Jurrell Casey, Kawann Short, Deforrest Buckner, Chris Jones, Akiem Hicks, and Cam Heyward at or above his level. Maybe others. Good player though and definitely an upgrade. And as of December they were far apart w/the Falcons on contract.

I would not mind Mack at all as backup for our center and guard spots. Just a question of if he'd accept that role on a potential contender after being a high-end starting center his whole career. My guess is he'll stay where he is.
Thanks! Fixed Jackson to Jarrett in my posts; my wires get so crossed.

I did not do this to indicate that they could not paper over their cap issues for a year or three. Restructuring can do that.

However, I think one or two players will break lose from ATL that we could be interested in. Sanu and Coleman are the two I am most looking at.

Anyway, fun cap exercise.

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Old 01-14-2019, 02:00 PM
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Man, if they are dumb enough to release Julio...

One can dream, I guess.
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Old 01-14-2019, 02:25 PM
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Quote:
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Man, if they are dumb enough to release Julio...

One can dream, I guess.
They won't. he is part of the identity of that team. I'm wondering would they try to franchise tag Jarret if they can't sign him?
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Old 01-14-2019, 02:27 PM
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They won't. he is part of the identity of that team. I'm wondering would they try to franchise tag Jarret if they can't sign him?
Wouldn't franchising him put them over the cap? They'd have the offseason to get under, but it would take them over the cap.
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Old 01-14-2019, 02:46 PM
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Quote:
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Wouldn't franchising him put them over the cap? They'd have the offseason to get under, but it would take them over the cap.
Yeah it would take them over. It would likely be a temporary solution. They would have to rescind it before the season or cut a lot of people in order to keep it. But it would give them time to figure it out.
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Old 01-14-2019, 07:35 PM
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Matt Schaub is still in the league?
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