Le'Veon Bell Wants to be a Colt

[Chromeburn]

Originally Posted by DrSpaceman

Dominic Rhodes was undrafted and in 2001 ran for 1000 yards in basically 10 games or so for the Colts.

Not so rare, even for this team

ALso on a side note........Rhodes only rushed for about 3200 yards in his NFL career. Thought it would be more.

And he was the United Football League offensive player of the year in 2011 for the Virginia Destroyers. They won the title that year, out of 4 teams.

True, I'm not saying you can't find them, but that was almost 20 years ago. That is kind of rare to me. Also, Rhodes had a lot of complementary talent around him, no one was scheming to shut him down. Marvin was the juggernaut of the offense that year. We also had Wayne (bad rookie year though), Wilkins, Pathon (Mr. I have to jump when I catch the ball because running and catching at the same time is too hard), Dilger, Pollard. That was a passing offense and that is what people were trying to shut down.

This team has TY and Ebron as matchup problem players. Doyle is a good all around TE but he doesn't scare anyone. We need another weapon on offense whether that is a dual threat RB like Bell, or a second WR. Bell makes sense because we have the money and he should be a FA. There might be other RB options through FA as well. The WR FA class looks mediocre coming up and drafting a WR will take some time to develop. We could draft a RB and there are some candidates, but the class is not as good as the last couple years. Also we likely would have to use a top 90 pick on the RB if we wanted to try to find a good dual threat. That is just the basic odds of success when drafting.

We should also think about finding TY's replacement as a number 1, he will be 30 next year.

[DrSpaceman]

Originally Posted by Chromeburn

True, I'm not saying you can't find them, but that was almost 20 years ago. That is kind of rare to me. Also, Rhodes had a lot of complementary talent around him, no one was scheming to shut him down. Marvin was the juggernaut of the offense that year. We also had Wayne (bad rookie year though), Wilkins, Pathon (Mr. I have to jump when I catch the ball because running and catching at the same time is too hard), Dilger, Pollard. That was a passing offense and that is what people were trying to shut down.

This team has TY and Ebron as matchup problem players. Doyle is a good all around TE but he doesn't scare anyone. We need another weapon on offense whether that is a dual threat RB like Bell, or a second WR. Bell makes sense because we have the money and he should be a FA. There might be other RB options through FA as well. The WR FA class looks mediocre coming up and drafting a WR will take some time to develop. We could draft a RB and there are some candidates, but the class is not as good as the last couple years. Also we likely would have to use a top 90 pick on the RB if we wanted to try to find a good dual threat. That is just the basic odds of success when drafting.

We should also think about finding TY's replacement as a number 1, he will be 30 next year.

The point is, those are just two random examples, just off the top of our heads, of undrafted rookies that made at great in the NFL as RBs. That is not all of them.

That doesn't include any number of lower round picks that also performed great at RB.

So no, you don't need a top 90 pick at RB to find a "dual threat", necessarily. You can find RBs throughout the draft.

And needs at WR are not just as a future #1 to replace TY, but to upgrade the entire unit. Its weak overall beyond him. Would much rather use draft picks and/or money on that rather than on signing bell.

[Oldcolt]

It is absolutely correct that you can find great rb's in almost any round and including in free agency. It's just that I think the chance is much greater to find an all-pro if you sign a player that already is one. For every back who became a good starting running back as a free agent there are literally hundreds, if not thousands who did not. I would like an upgrade next year and think the chances are best by signing Bell (if his demands are reasonable). This team is on such a good trajectory that it isn't a make or break decision either way, just one way we could go.

[Chromeburn]

Originally Posted by DrSpaceman

The point is, those are just two random examples, just off the top of our heads, of undrafted rookies that made at great in the NFL as RBs. That is not all of them.

That doesn't include any number of lower round picks that also performed great at RB.

So no, you don't need a top 90 pick at RB to find a "dual threat", necessarily. You can find RBs throughout the draft.

And needs at WR are not just as a future #1 to replace TY, but to upgrade the entire unit. Its weak overall beyond him. Would much rather use draft picks and/or money on that rather than on signing bell.

Using examples and outliers doesn't prove a point though. You have to look at the data overall from the draft and UDFA's to form an opinion. Of course, you don't need a 1st round pick to find a dual threat RB. The best odds of finding an elite dual-threat back is in the first round though. You can find depth and running back by committee guys later in the draft. For every Dominic Rhodes there is a ton of guys that don't do anything.

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/...draft-by-round

This guy does a good breakdown of draft odds by position and success rate. RB's have a very high bust rate. He states:

The first round gives you a 58% chance of finding a starter followed by 25% in the second, 16% in the third, 11% in the fourth, 9% in the fifth, 6% in the sixth and 0% in the 7th.
If you rank the rounds by the total RBs drafted you find that the greatest number are drafted in the 7th, followed by the 4th, 6th, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, and 5th.

If you want a stud RB, they are likely to come from the first round. If you are looking for depth, the fourth round seems to be the place to go. This year Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon have the first round grades based on statistics it seems likely that one of the two will be a bust. However, this could be like 2007 when AP and Beastmode went in the first round. For the Chiefs, since 2007 they have taken a RB every draft except 2010. Both Charles and Davis were the highest drafted both coming in the 3rd round.

This data only goes to 2015. If you look at the 2016 draft, you have only Ezekiel Elliot drafted high in the first. We can all agree that he is an elite back.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_NFL_Draft

But look at the later rounds, there are a lot of RB's drafted. Only Jordan Howard and Derrick Henry stick out to me in that list. I roughly count 22 RB's drafted in rounds 2-7 and also including UDFA's. That's a high bust rate. So you can do the top couple rounds with the best odds, or you can try a volume approach to try and find one if you want to go the draft route.

Finally, I didn't say we need to only replace TY as a number one and that is the only concern. I said we need to start thinking about it because he is getting up there. That should coincide though with trying to find a number two. Teams usually draft a WR hoping they will become a number 1 eventually. Drafting WR's is difficult as well because they also have a high bust rate.

I also said we need another offensive weapon, whether that is an elite RB, WR, whatever to attack defenses. Bell makes logical sense because of the reasons I laid out. If Bell happened to be a WR I would say the same thing. Also, there seems to be a lot more money left over to address other positions. We could sign Bell, the top FA pass rusher, and still have lots of money left over. I would rather use FA, because using draft picks on RB's is a bit harder to hit with. I would rather use the draft for young defensive players. But signing Bell doesn't mean we can't sign other players as well.

[Dewey 5]

Right now, yes please with Bell

[Luck4Reich]

"Former Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Reggie Wayne is adding fuel to the excitement of Pittsburgh Steelers running back Le'veon Bell joining the Colts. ... The newest member of the Colts Ring of Honor is apparently a big Bell fan."

[FatDT]

I think the offense will be just fine with Mack/Hines/Wilkins. Mack is not a great back but he’s fine, and the OL is great, so he will put up numbers. I think we are seeing the same principle as with the old Shanahan Broncos OLs, they manufactured 1000 yard rushers like it was easy.

Then again, when they got Terrell Davis, they won 2 SBs. Mack sometimes gets 5 yards where a better back would probably get 15+. He can definitely be improved upon. He’s fine, but I would not call him the “answer” at RB.

[DrSpaceman]

When I have time I will look this up, but in regard to having a top notch running back, how many of those teams who used a first round pick on a RB or signed a big name FA RB have won a SB in the last 10 years?


Off the top of my head, I would say only Seattle with Lynch.

That is what matters most. The teams that consistently win, year after year, who are they relying on as RBs and where are they drafting them?

The majority of teams winning SBs or conference titles are not drafting RBs at the top or putting big money in FA running backs.

Again I can quote any numbers right now, but I will when I have time.

[DrSpaceman]

Originally Posted by FatDT

I think the offense will be just fine with Mack/Hines/Wilkins. Mack is not a great back but he’s fine, and the OL is great, so he will put up numbers. I think we are seeing the same principle as with the old Shanahan Broncos OLs, they manufactured 1000 yard rushers like it was easy.

Then again, when they got Terrell Davis, they won 2 SBs. Mack sometimes gets 5 yards where a better back would probably get 15+. He can definitely be improved upon. He’s fine, but I would not call him the “answer” at RB.

And where was Terrrell Davis drafted? 6th round

Also consider in terms of years of value for a first round pick or a big salary FA RB, you get probably the least time out of a RB. They have the shortest time frame as a top player in most cases, compared to WR, pass rusher, OL, QB, LB, pretty much any other position.

[Chromeburn]

Originally Posted by DrSpaceman

And where was Terrrell Davis drafted? 6th round

Also consider in terms of years of value for a first round pick or a big salary FA RB, you get probably the least time out of a RB. They have the shortest time frame as a top player in most cases, compared to WR, pass rusher, OL, QB, LB, pretty much any other position.

You seem dead set against adding Bell. What would you do this off-season to add to the team?