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Originally Posted by DrSpaceman
The point is, those are just two random examples, just off the top of our heads, of undrafted rookies that made at great in the NFL as RBs. That is not all of them.
That doesn't include any number of lower round picks that also performed great at RB.
So no, you don't need a top 90 pick at RB to find a "dual threat", necessarily. You can find RBs throughout the draft.
And needs at WR are not just as a future #1 to replace TY, but to upgrade the entire unit. Its weak overall beyond him. Would much rather use draft picks and/or money on that rather than on signing bell.
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Using examples and outliers doesn't prove a point though. You have to look at the data overall from the draft and UDFA's to form an opinion. Of course, you don't need a 1st round pick to find a dual threat RB. The best
odds of finding an elite dual-threat back is in the first round though. You can find depth and running back by committee guys later in the draft. For every Dominic Rhodes there is a ton of guys that don't do anything.
https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/...draft-by-round
This guy does a good breakdown of draft odds by position and success rate. RB's have a very high bust rate. He states:
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The first round gives you a 58% chance of finding a starter followed by 25% in the second, 16% in the third, 11% in the fourth, 9% in the fifth, 6% in the sixth and 0% in the 7th.
If you rank the rounds by the total RBs drafted you find that the greatest number are drafted in the 7th, followed by the 4th, 6th, 2nd, 3rd, 1st, and 5th.
If you want a stud RB, they are likely to come from the first round. If you are looking for depth, the fourth round seems to be the place to go. This year Todd Gurley and Melvin Gordon have the first round grades based on statistics it seems likely that one of the two will be a bust. However, this could be like 2007 when AP and Beastmode went in the first round. For the Chiefs, since 2007 they have taken a RB every draft except 2010. Both Charles and Davis were the highest drafted both coming in the 3rd round.
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This data only goes to 2015. If you look at the 2016 draft, you have only Ezekiel Elliot drafted high in the first. We can all agree that he is an elite back.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_NFL_Draft
But look at the later rounds, there are a lot of RB's drafted. Only Jordan Howard and Derrick Henry stick out to me in that list. I roughly count 22 RB's drafted in rounds 2-7 and also including UDFA's. That's a high bust rate. So you can do the top couple rounds with the best odds, or you can try a volume approach to try and find one if you want to go the draft route.
Finally, I didn't say we need to only replace TY as a number one and that is the only concern. I said we need to start
thinking about it because he is getting up there. That should coincide though with trying to find a number two. Teams usually draft a WR hoping they will become a number 1 eventually. Drafting WR's is difficult as well because they also have a high bust rate.
I also said we need another offensive weapon, whether that is an elite RB, WR, whatever to attack defenses. Bell makes logical sense because of the reasons I laid out. If Bell happened to be a WR I would say the same thing. Also, there seems to be a lot more money left over to address other positions. We could sign Bell, the top FA pass rusher, and still have lots of money left over. I would rather use FA, because using draft picks on RB's is a bit harder to hit with. I would rather use the draft for young defensive players. But signing Bell doesn't mean we can't sign other players as well.