Is Daniel Jones's 2025 success sustainable? A deep dive into the numbers.

[ChaosTheory]

Originally Posted by apballin

All reports from camp are saying Jones is throwing and moving around very good

If you haven't seen the clips... he looks like he was never injured. At mini-camp, I was blown away at his movement. The quick shuffle bag drills in particular. And in the first practices at training camp now... he's rolling out, scrambling, and outrunning Latu to the boundary. It really is amazing.

I've read that this secondary is making things a real challenge. Even so, Jones and the offense was apparently super sharp in Red-Zone yesterday. 11/14 and 3TDs, I believe.

I'm really looking forward to seeing our secondary and the work they'll force Jones into should benefit the offense, too.

[sherck]

Originally Posted by apballin

All reports from camp are saying Jones is throwing and moving around very good

And that will be great....for the 12 or so odd games that he plays in give or take a couple.

And then when we lose most of the rest because we are not a good enough team to win without superior QB play and either miss the playoffs or limp into the playoffs and are 1-and-done....

Sorry, I will LOVE to have to eat crow on this but DJ is just not the guy who can bring it home for us.

I know, I know. We have no better options. I understand that and given the same situations, I would probably have done exactly what Ballard did in signing him to the two year contract but I don't think he is the guy.

I hope he proves me wrong this season....but I don't think he will.

[Oldcolt]

While Jones certainly is a huge risk he isn't what worries me the most. If he doesn't get injured we should be fine, not sure about that with other positions, specifically WR and pass rush (not a position but you get my. drift). JT becomes much less effective when he is the focal point rather than one of many. We need help and help at those two positions isn't easy to find on short notice.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by sherck

And that will be great....for the 12 or so odd games that he plays in give or take a couple.

And then when we lose most of the rest because we are not a good enough team to win without superior QB play and either miss the playoffs or limp into the playoffs and are 1-and-done....

Sorry, I will LOVE to have to eat crow on this but DJ is just not the guy who can bring it home for us.

I know, I know. We have no better options. I understand that and given the same situations, I would probably have done exactly what Ballard did in signing him to the two year contract but I don't think he is the guy.

I hope he proves me wrong this season....but I don't think he will.

Statistically most of what you're saying here is true. The one part I don't agree with is

Originally Posted by sherck

And then when we lose most of the rest because we are not a good enough team to win without superior QB play and either miss the playoffs or limp into the playoffs and are 1-and-done....

The problem I have with this is that Steichen has produced a Top 10 scoring offense in 2 of his 3 years here, and did it with QBs that no one would describe as "superior". As long as Steichen has a QB that will give his offense a semblance of consistency and sustainability (see: not 2024 Anthony Richardson), I would say the offense would perform well enough in those situations that, given an average opponent in the 5 games in the scenario you laid out, the Colts would have a good chance of winning 2-3. Ideally in that sceanrio, that would be enough to at least make the postseason and hope Jones is back.

I fully agree with you that none of this is ideal, but I don't think the downfall of this team would be a losing streak caused by a Daniel Jones high ankle sprain (or insert whatever injury here that takes ~5 weeks recovery).