[Racehorse]

Originally Posted by Chromeburn

Finding a QB is largely luck. There is an 8% chance a QB drafted in the first round will become a Pro-Bowler. As much as guys like to talk about talent evaluation. Finding a QB is, to a large extent, luck, environment, and surrounding talent. That is why I continued to support Ballard; I liked his build strategy for teams, I knew this would be a well-built team with luck, they should have gone to the playoffs with Minshew. I think he is overall a good drafting GM, all have misses, and that is one of the most important traits a GM needs. You don't almost make the playoffs with bad to mediocre QB play and not have a good supporting cast. Yeah eventually you have to move on when a GM can't find a QB, but I have definitely seen bad GM's who stayed on simply because they got lucky finding a QB.

I saw a graphic today that said Manning was the last overall first pick who led the team that drafted him to a SB win. Given that nearly every first overall pick since him was a QB, your point about luck is valid.