L'Jarius Sneed

[Colts And Orioles]

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Cody Benjamin offers his rat's ass of an opinion on the L'Jarius Snead trade.




3 Reasons Why the Chiefs Got So Little From the Titans for Their Super Bowl Champion Cornerback

(By Cody Benjamin)

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/l...on-cornerback/



1) ) The Chiefs weren't set to pay Sneed long-term.

2) ) Sneed is older (27), and his star replacement is already in place.

3) ) CB is a volatile position, and it may be losing some value.

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[ChaosTheory]

Originally Posted by Colts And Orioles

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Earlier in the thread, I supposed how the 2023 Colts would have fared with a healthy Anthony Richardson at quarterback ...... your post just gave me the thought of how those 2023 Colts would have fared with a healthy Andrew Luck taking the snaps behind the center.

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Well, if it makes you feel any better, I've gone down the same counterfactual thinking road about Andrew Luck on the '23 Colts. In fact, I've also done it with the '19, '20, and '21 teams and they all make me want to cry.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by rm1369

I don’t at all see the connection you are trying to draw between Polian / Ballard and the Chiefs. Especially the trading of Tyreke Hill. That is a move I see neither Polian or Ballard making. Both of them would have paid and kept Hill. For one it was home grown talent and that alone is reason they wouldn’t have traded him. And secondly it was a huge risk for a well established team. Neither one of them are known for their risk taking. The Chiefs roster has changed significantly more than the Colts rosters with Manning did. They have been more aggressive and more adaptive. Which is exactly my complaint with Ballard’s style and the same complaint I had about Polian. I believe a more aggressive roster approach with Manning would have likely ended with less regular season success but more post season success. I’m sure you vehemently disagree.Regardless, I don’t see substantial success using their ultra conservative approach across the league. I see teams that are more adaptive and who take some calculated risks (like the Chiefs) coming out on top.

So let’s be clear, I’m not talking free agent frenzy. I’m saying identifying the major obvious weakness and taking real steps to address at least one of them - beyond planning to fix it in the draft over the next couple seasons. Stretching to get one key piece in Hunter or Sneed is not a frenzy. Another approach is bringing in multiple mid level (not bargain basement) free agents to get at least mid level play while the young guys develop in spots. Neither of those methods are abandoning the principles of building through the draft. And it doesn’t necessarily lead to cap hell.

The value of drafting talent and the need for it to be the primary source of talent is undisputed. And overall I agree Ballard is an above average drafter. The Colts could certainly do worse at that. However I also believe they can do better overall with someone who has a different, less rigid philosophy. My preference is for Ballard to learn and change. So far there is no evidence of that though. I advocate for a controlled aggressive approach from the GM so it makes sense I’d want the same for the owner. Ballard should be running out of rope soon if he’s not capable of adapting.

I was stating that Ballard and Polian run teams similarly, and that the method they use is generally the most successful one across the league. The Chiefs are one of the teams that run their franchise in a similar fashion, at least in my opinion.

I brought up the Tyreek Hill trade because it is the type of difficult decision that well run franchises sometimes have to make, and I truly believe that most Colts fans would demand Ballard's head on a pike if he made a move like that, even if it was the right move to make.

I agree with the idea of taking smart, calculated risks, but the ones that you and I think make sense may not be the ones the front office thinks make sense. I probably wouldn't have traded the 13th pick in 2020 for Buckner, but that was a good move. I wanted Hunter, and it was reported that the Colts had the better offer, but players get to choose where they go in free agency.

Also, you keep saying Ballard is an "above average" drafter, that's like calling Peyton Manning an "above average" QB. Ballard is a better drafter than Polian, who is among the best drafters of all-time and whose drafting put him in the Hall of Fame. You don't get rid of that over small irritations.

[IndyNorm]

Catching up on this one. Here's my .02 on several of the things being discussed:

Ballard - No question that Ballard is a MUCH better GM that Grigson, but damn near anybody would be b/c Grigson was completely incompetent.

I think we need to pump the breaks pretty hard on this Ballard is a better GM than Polian talk. When Ballard's teams start reaching Super Bowls (or have any playoff success at all) then I think we can maybe start having that conversation. As far as just drafting goes - I mostly agree w/ Chaos that you can have the conversation, but I do not agree that it's an absolute fact that Ballard is a better drafter. On top of just the amount of all-pros and HOFers that Polian drafted, you have to consider that most of his HRs were at premium positions. Whereas Ballard's haven't been. Something else that you have to consider is that during Polian's tenure the salary cap was more restrictive w/ no rookie salary limits in place, which made it much harder to keep your own and likely led to really good players like Mike Peterson, David Thornton, Steve McKinney being allowed to walk. Something else about Polian is that he tended to be more proactive is drafting replacements 1-2 years ahead of time (Diem and DeMulling in '01 are really good examples of this) while Ballard tends to wait until the vet leaves and tries to replace them w/ a rookie.

Overall though I do think Ballard is a good GM. He definitely drafts well. I do think his reluctance in FA and the fact that he gets scared shitless anytime another team is involved in pursuing a player is concerning. Let's say in a couple of years we're 1-2 players away and could fill that need(s) via FA. Based on his history I doubt Ballard will actually go for it and end up trying to fill the need(s) via the draft as always, which could lead to us missing our window.

Sneed - I'm pretty disappointed that he ended up at Tenn and not here, especially considering that they got him for peanuts w/ draft compensation. He did get signed to a big contract, but it wasn't outrageous. $19M AAV is tied for 7th most at CB and $55M guaranteed is 5th most at CB, which IMO isn't unreasonable considering his production and how much the cap went up this year.

Offseason so far - I would give us a C/C+ so far. It's great that we re-signed most of our own and added some depth at NT. But as of now arguably our weakest area (secondary) is actually weaker w/ the likelihood of losing Blackmon. We really need to replace him w/ a vet and IMO sign a vet at CB as well. Relying on mostly projects, 2nd year guys, and rookies in our secondary is a recipe for disaster IMO. We also need to add weapons in the passing game on O, but I suspect those will come in the draft.

[ukcolt]

I think quoting Diem and DeMulling as drafting replacements is stretching things a little. Diem possibly, he was a 4th round pick who you think will be good depth and maybe become a potential starter, but DeMulling was a 7th rounder flyer, who no-one really knew would become a replacement starter. Could just as easily have been a cut candidate.

[IndyNorm]

Originally Posted by ukcolt

I think quoting Diem and DeMulling as drafting replacements is stretching things a little. Diem possibly, he was a 4th round pick who you think will be good depth and maybe become a potential starter, but DeMulling was a 7th rounder flyer, who no-one really knew would become a replacement starter. Could just as easily have been a cut candidate.

Definitely disagree on Diem. I think Polian definitely drafted him w/ the thought of replacing Meadows, which he did end up doing. I also think DeMulling was more than a flyer as Polian was pretty good at drafting IOL in the later rounds or bringing them in as UDFAs. On top of DeMulling there was Jake Scott, Lilja, obviously Saturday, etc.

Either way there was a clear pattern under Polian of drafting replacement players at least 1 year ahead of time, which allowed them to develop and be evaluated. Another example is David Thornton being drafted in '02 and replacing Peterson in '03. I can list several of these (including ones that didn't work out), but the point being is that IMO this is a better strategy than relying on rookies to come in and produce right away which is what Ballard tends to do.

[Dam8610]

Starters by draft:

1998
Peyton Manning
Jerome Pathon? (I wouldn't count him, others might)
Steve McKinney

1999
Edgerrin James
Mike Peterson
Hunter Smith

2000
Rob Morris
Marcus Washington
David Macklin

2001
Reggie Wayne
Ryan Diem
Rick DeMulling

2002
Dwight Freeney
David Thornton

2003
Dallas Clark
Robert Mathis
Cato June

2004
Bob Sanders
Jason David

2005
Marlin Jackson
Kelvin Hayden
Tyjuan Hagler

2006
Joseph Addai
Tim Jennings (though he wasn't really a quality starter as a Colt)
Freddy Keiaho
Charlie Johnson
Antoine Bethea

2007
None

2008
Jacob Tamme
Pierre Garcon

2009
Jerraud Powers
Austin Collie
Pat McAfee

VS

2017
Marlon Mack
Grover Stewart
Anthony Walker Jr.

2018
Quenton Nelson
Shaquille Leonard
Braden Smith
Zaire Franklin

2019
Bobby Okereke
Khari Willis
E.J. Speed

2020*
Michael Pittman Jr.
Jonathan Taylor
Julian Blackmon
Isaiah Rodgers
*Traded 13th overall pick for DeForest Buckner

2021
Kwity Paye
Dayo Odeyingbo
Will Fries

2022**
Alec Pierce
Jelani Woods
Bernhard Raimann
Nick Cross
Rodney Thomas

2023**
Anthony Richardson
Julius Brents
Josh Downs
Blake Freeland
Jaylon Jones

**These drafts are too early to tell, players who have received significant playing time and/or performed well were included.

[IndyNorm]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

Starters by draft:

1998
Peyton Manning
Jerome Pathon? (I wouldn't count him, others might)
Steve McKinney

1999
Edgerrin James
Mike Peterson
Hunter Smith

2000
Rob Morris
Marcus Washington
David Macklin

2001
Reggie Wayne
Idrees Bashir
Ryan Diem
Rick DeMulling

2002
Dwight Freeney
David Thornton

2003
Dallas Clark
Mike Doss
Robert Mathis
Cato June

2004
Bob Sanders
Jason David
Jake Scott

2005
Marlin Jackson
Kelvin Hayden
Tyjuan Hagler

2006
Joseph Addai
Tim Jennings (though he wasn't really a quality starter as a Colt)
Freddy Keiaho
Charlie Johnson
Antoine Bethea

2007
Clint Session

2008
Jacob Tamme
Pierre Garcon

2009
Jerraud Powers
Austin Collie
Pat McAfee

VS

2017
Marlon Mack
Grover Stewart
Anthony Walker Jr.

2018
Quenton Nelson
Shaquille Leonard
Braden Smith
Zaire Franklin

2019
Bobby Okereke
Khari Willis
E.J. Speed

2020*
Michael Pittman Jr.
Jonathan Taylor
Julian Blackmon
Isaiah Rodgers
*Traded 13th overall pick for DeForest Buckner

2021
Kwity Paye
Dayo Odeyingbo
Will Fries

2022**
Alec Pierce
Jelani Woods
Bernhard Raimann
Nick Cross
Rodney Thomas

2023**
Anthony Richardson
Julius Brents
Josh Downs
Blake Freeland
Jaylon Jones

**These drafts are too early to tell, players who have received significant playing time and/or performed well were included.

Added some guys you missed from the Polian drafts, and if we're counting Isiah Rodgers then we should probably count some relatively productive part time starters who Polian drafted like Brad Scioli, Larry Tripplett, etc..

Also, despite you notating that it's too early to tell I think you're still trying to count your chickens before they hatch from the past 2 drafts (especially w/ including Cross on that list). Of course I hope you're right on all of them.

Admittedly Polian's drafts definitely declined when he started handing the reigns over to Chris after '06, but the fact that Polian has several HOFers and all pros at premium positions (even if you exclude Peyton) I would still give him the edge over Ballard. Which isn't a knock on Ballard at all. As I stated earlier he does draft well.

[YDFL Commish]

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

Admittedly Polian's drafts definitely declined when he started handing the reigns over to Chris after '06, but the fact that Polian has several HOFers and all pros at premium positions (even if you exclude Peyton) I would still give him the edge over Ballard. Which isn't a knock on Ballard at all. As I stated earlier he does draft well.

I'll throw this in. To draft starters on teams that are perpetually 12 to 14 win teams is a lot different than drafting starters for 4 to 9 win teams.

[IndyNorm]

Originally Posted by YDFL Commish

I'll throw this in. To draft starters on teams that are perpetually 12 to 14 win teams is a lot different than drafting starters for 4 to 9 win teams.

That's an excellent point!