2024 Colts Cap

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by HoosierinFL

Dam, all your contracts are massively backloaded, that seems worrying if the cap doesn’t increase accordingly. It would give a 2 year window to win and then you have to start releasing, trading or restructuring these guys.

It's a common tactic used in the NFL, typically the final year of those deals is either restructured, as I did with the Buckner deal, or cut, dependent on if the player is still playing up to the contract. Plus, the cap, with very few exceptions, tends to go up 5-10% every year, and this year went up by nearly 15%. What I did is not worrisome contract construction, because I didn't use void years or other silly cap tricks to create massively low first year cap hits.

Coincidentally, I will likely be updating this after the combine next week.

[IndyNorm]

Originally Posted by HoosierinFL

Where is Trey Sermon?

Sermon's an RFA. Would think we could re-sign at or near the 4 year vet minimum.

[HoosierinFL]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

It's a common tactic used in the NFL, typically the final year of those deals is either restructured, as I did with the Buckner deal, or cut, dependent on if the player is still playing up to the contract. Plus, the cap, with very few exceptions, tends to go up 5-10% every year, and this year went up by nearly 15%. What I did is not worrisome contract construction, because I didn't use void years or other silly cap tricks to create massively low first year cap hits.

Coincidentally, I will likely be updating this after the combine next week.

Yes it’s common but so far has not been consistent with how Ballard structures contracts.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

First, thank you Ironshaft for doing this, takes a lot of time and effort to put things like this together. Regarding your question, let's have at. If I may borrow:

Current 2024 Players by Position:

QB: Anthony Richardson, Sam Ehlinger
RB: Jonathan Taylor, Evan Hull, Tyler Goodson
WR: Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, Ashton Dulin, DJ Montgomery, Tyler Cleveland, Ethan Fernes, Zavier Scott, Terrell Bynum
TE: Mo Alie-Cox, Jelani Woods, Kylen Granson, Andrew Ogletree, Will Mallory, Eric Tomlinson, Jordan Murray
OT: Braden Smith, Bernhard Raimann, Blake Freeland, Jake Witt, Arlington Hambright, Lewis Kidd
OG: Quenton Nelson, Will Fries, Josh Sills
OC: Ryan Kelly, Wesley French

DT: DeForest Buckner, Eric Johnson, Adetomiwa Abedawore
DE: Samson Ebukam, Kwitty Paye, Dayo Odeyingbo, Titus Lee
LB: Zaire Franklin, E.J. Speed, Segun Olubi, Grant Stuard, Cameron McGrone, Isaiah Land, Austin Ajieke, Liam Anderson
Saf: Rodney Thomas, Nick Cross, Daniel Scott, Trevor Denbow, Kendell Brooks, Marcel Dabo, Michael Tutsie
CB: Julius Brents, Dallis Flowers, Jaylon Jones, Darrell Baker Jr., Chris Lammons, Ameer Speed

LS: Luke Rhodes
PK: Matt Gay
P:

First, let's assess. The roster is thin at RB, WR, OG, DT, DE, S, CB, and P. I feel that there are internal solutions at WR, DT, S, CB, and P by resigning our impending Free Agents. Let's look at that category, as it will be the first phase of the offseason:

Phase 1: Retention of 2024 Team Free Agents

Significant 2024 Colts Unrestricted Free Agents:

Starters:
WR Michael Pittman Jr
NT Grover Stewart
CB Kenny Moore
S Julian Blackmon
P Rigoberto Sanchez

Important Depth:
QB Gardner Minshew
RB Zack Moss
OG Danny Pinter
DE Tyquan Lewis
DT Taven Bryan

First, we need to address the elephant in the room. Michael Pittman Jr. is a #1 WR, and a top 15 WR in the NFL, he needs to be retained and he needs to be paid as such. I would use the franchise tag to ensure another team can't do it. While this would make his cap hit $21.665 million, I would aim to use the tag to extend him. I think the following deal would get the job done:

5 year $115 million extension with $65 million in guarantees
Year 1: $14 million salary (fully guaranteed), $5 million pro rated signing bonus, $19 million cap hit
Year 2: $16 million salary (fully guaranteed), $5 million pro rated signing bonus, $21 million cap hit
Year 3: $16 million salary, $5 million roster bonus, $5 million pro rated signing bonus, $26 million cap hit
Year 4: $16 million salary, $5 million roster bonus, $5 million pro rated signing bonus, $26 million cap hit
Year 5: $18 million salary, $5 million pro rated signing bonus, $23 million cap hit

I based this deal on the A.J. Brown deal, adding a year while taking a bit off the AAV. This allows the Colts to retain a key target for their young QB without eating nearly half of their cap space this year.

Remaining usable cap space: $34.427 million

Next, I think it's crucial to bring back Grover Stewart. He's key to the team's run defense, and his absence was felt in the 6 games he missed. I think the below is in line with the market while giving him a small raise:

3 year $33 million extension with $18 million in guarantees
Year 1: $6 million salary (fully guaranteed), $3 million pro rated signing bonus, $9 million cap hit
Year 2: $8 million salary, $3 million pro rated signing bonus, $11 million cap hit
Year 3: $7 million salary, $3 million roster bonus, $3 million pro rated signing bonus, $13 million cap hit

This is in line with last year's market, with a small increase from his previous contract that also reflects a small increase to the market due to increased cap space. Hopefully the Colts will search for and find their next NT in the first two years of the contract.

Remaining Usable Cap Space: $25.427 million

Next up, Kenny Moore II, who had a lot of ups and downs on his last contract, but is basically the only slot CB on the team. I think the following would be a fair deal:

3 year $27 million extension with $15 million in guarantees
Year 1: $4 million salary (fully guaranteed), $3 million pro rated signing bonus, $7 million cap hit
Year 2: $6 million salary, $3 million pro rated signing bonus, $9 million cap hit
Year 3: $6 million salary, $2 million roster bonus, $3 million pro rated signing bonus, $11 million cap hit

The AAV is slightly higher than the Byron Murphy deal from last year with an extra year as well. It would be ideal to find a good slot defender in the first two years of this contract.

Remaining Usable Cap Space: $18.427 million

Up next, Julian Blackmon, who I believe was a high quality starter for the defense, and his absence may have cost the Colts a playoff spot this year. Here's what I think would work:

4 year $32 million extension with $16 million in guarantees
Year 1: $4 million salary (fully guaranteed), $2 million pro rated signing bonus, $6 million cap hit
Year 2: $6 million salary ($2 million guaranteed), $2 million pro rated signing bonus, $8 million cap hit
Year 3: $6 million salary, $2 million pro rated signing bonus, $8 million cap hit
Year 4: $6 million salary, $2 million roster bonus, $2 million pro rated signing bonus, $10 million cap hit

This is a higher AAV than any safety other than Jessie Bates got in free agency last year. It also keeps a solid starter on the roster for at least the next 3 seasons.

Remaining Usable Cap Space: $12.427 million

Next is Rigo. I think he's worth near top end of the Punter market money, as follows:

4 year $12 million extension with $6 million in guarantees
Year 1: $1 million salary (fully guaranteed), $1 million pro rated signing bonus, $2 million cap hit
Year 2: $2 million salary, $1 million pro rated signing bonus, $3 million cap hit
Year 3: $2 million salary, $1 million pro rated signing bonus, $3 million cap hit
Year 4: $2 million salary, $1 million roster bonus, $1 million pro rated signing bonus, $4 million cap hit

Michael Dickson has the richest punter contract in NFL history and it has just over $3.6 million AAV. I think that makes the above a fair deal.

Remaining Usable Cap Space: $10.427 million

Finally, I think the Colts could do worse for a backup QB than Gardner Minshew, and I think he deserves to be rewarded for above average play for a backup QB. I think the following is more than fair:

2 year $10 million extension with $5 million in guarantees
Year 1: $1 million salary (fully guaranteed), $2 million pro rated signing bonus, $3 million cap hit
Year 2: $5 million salary, $2 million pro rated signing bonus, $7 million cap hit

This is effectively a 1/$5 deal with a second 1/$5 option. Leaving that much unguaranteed salary in year 2 also gives the Colts the option to extend the deal for another year or 2 while bringing the cap hit down should they choose to keep him longer. This is pretty close to top end of the backup market, and I don't think he'd find more elsewhere.

Remaining Usable Cap Space: $7.427 million

I also liked Ronnie Harrison Jr. as a LB, and would be willing to bring him back on a veteran minimum contract of $1.08 million for 1 year.

Remaining Usable Cap Space: $6.347 million

Why I chose not to retain the other listed free agents: Zack Moss is going to get high end RB2/low end RB1 money on the market, the Colts can't afford to pay him that. Danny Pinter only ever played quality minutes for the Colts at Center and had to be replaced at Guard mid-season when he was penciled in by the coaching staff as the starter at the position. When Pinter lost the backup OC job to Wesley French, he lost all value IMO. Tyquan Lewis and Taven Bryan are good rotational players that will likely want too much money to come back in the same roles. In Lewis's case, I plan to massively upgrade the DE position, while in Bryan's case, my hope would be that Adebawore could step into his role.

After retaining free agents, the roster is as follows (bold indicates an added player):

QB: Anthony Richardson, Gardner Minshew, Sam Ehlinger
RB: Jonathan Taylor, Evan Hull, Tyler Goodson
WR: Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, Ashton Dulin, DJ Montgomery, Tyler Cleveland, Ethan Fernes, Zavier Scott, Terrell Bynum
TE: Mo Alie-Cox, Jelani Woods, Kylen Granson, Andrew Ogletree, Will Mallory, Eric Tomlinson, Jordan Murray
OT: Braden Smith, Bernhard Raimann, Blake Freeland, Jake Witt, Arlington Hambright, Lewis Kidd
OG: Quenton Nelson, Will Fries, Josh Sills
OC: Ryan Kelly, Wesley French

DT: DeForest Buckner, Grover Stewart, Eric Johnson, Adetomiwa Abedawore
DE: Samson Ebukam, Kwity Paye, Dayo Odeyingbo, Titus Lee
LB: Zaire Franklin, E.J. Speed, Ronnie Harrison Jr., Segun Olubi, Grant Stuard, Cameron McGrone, Isaiah Land, Austin Ajieke, Liam Anderson
Saf: Julian Blackmon, Rodney Thomas, Nick Cross, Daniel Scott, Trevor Denbow, Kendell Brooks, Marcel Dabo, Michael Tutsie
CB: Julius Brents, Kenny Moore II, Dallis Flowers, Jaylon Jones, Darrell Baker Jr., Chris Lammons, Ameer Speed

LS: Luke Rhodes
PK: Matt Gay
P: Rigoberto Sanchez

Next, we need to create some cap space. I plan to make a splash Free Agency signing, so just under $6.4 million will not be enough. Looking at the list borrowed from above:

Phase 2: Cap Management and External Free Agency

Ten Biggest Cap Savings if Cut:

$20.250m = DT Deforest Buckner
$12.375m = OC Ryan Kelly
$10.683m = OT Braden Smith
$05.920m = TE Mo Allie-Cox
$03.500m = LB E.J. Speed
$03.360m = LB Zaire Franklin
$03.010m = WR Ashton Dulin
$02.251m = DE Kwitty Paye
$01.735m = DE Samson Ebkukam
$01.500m = DE Dayo Odeyingbo

I see one obvious cap casualty, and that is Mo Alie-Cox. I am cutting him for the cap savings.

Remaining Usable Cap Space: $12.267 million

This is still not enough space to sign the free agent I am looking to sign, so while I'm not cutting anyone else, there are 3 very obvious candidates for restructure: DeForest Buckner, Ryan Kelly, and Braden Smith. Because Buckner is an elite player, I want to keep him as a fixture in the Colts defense for the next several seasons, I don't want to deal with potentially having to tag him next year, and he probably can provide all of the cap savings I need in one restructure, I'm looking at him first.

3 year, $72 million deal with $48 million in guarantees
Year 1 (2024): $2 million salary (fully guaranteed), $10 million pro rated signing bonus, $12 million cap hit
Year 2 (2025): $15 million salary ($12 million guaranteed), $10 million pro rated signing bonus, $25 million cap hit
Year 3 (2026): $21 million salary, $4 million roster bonus, $10 million pro rated signing bonus, $35 million cap hit

This puts nearly $10 million more in Buckner's pocket this year while saving $10.75 million in cap space. Obviously, Year 3 will necessitate a restructure or cut, hopefully restructure.

Remaining Usable Cap Space: $23.017 million

With my newly acquired cap space, I am going to purchase the Colts the elite pass rusher they have been lacking since Robert Mathis left the team:

Sign DE Danielle Hunter
4 year $100 million deal with $60 million in guarantees
Year 1: $15 million salary (fully guaranteed), $6 million pro rated signing bonus, $21 million cap hit
Year 2: $15 million salary (fully guaranteed), $6 million pro rated signing bonus, $21 million cap hit
Year 3: $20 million salary, $6 million pro rated signing bonus, $26 million cap hit
Year 4: $20 million salary, $6 million roster bonus, $6 million pro rated signing bonus, $32 million cap hit

This is more or less a 2 year $54 million deal that the Colts can choose to jettison after Year 3 if he is not performing or restructure if he is. Hunter has been an elite pass rusher for years and has come back strong from a 2021 injury, posting 27 sacks over the last 2 seasons with a league leading 23 TFL in 2023. Putting Hunter and Buckner on the same defensive line takes the unit from good to elite. I feel this move also fits with Ballard's history, as DE is the position he's addressed most often and best in free agency. He's never made a splash like this, but this is intended to be a win now move that signals confidence in the current team is ready to take the step into contention.

Remaining Usable Cap Space: $2.017 million

With that, the pre-draft roster is set. Based on the above moves, I would view the Colts draft needs as follows:

Phase 3: 2024 NFL Draft

Team Needs Pre-2024 NFL Draft
1. CB (Slot)*
2. DE (Elite Pass Rusher)*
3. TE
4. RB
5. DT (depth/future starter)
6. OC (depth/future starter)
7. OG (depth)
8. QB (backup more similar to Richardson)

*NOTE: If not addressed in Free Agency, DE (Elite Pass Rusher) becomes the team's top need.

Colts picks in 2024 NFL draft:**
Round 1 Pick 15
Round 2 Pick 46
Round 3 Pick 82
Round 4 Pick 118
Round 5 Pick 150
Round 6 Pick 193
Round 7 Pick 232

**This is the most accurate information I can find as of the time of making this post. I will update as more accurate information becomes available.

Round 1 Pick 15: DE Laiatu Latu UCLA
With a Top 15 pick, I believe the focus should be on getting an elite player to add to your team. The words "Game Wrecker" come to mind when you put on Latu's film. Latu has excellent burst off the edge and a variety of pass rush moves that allow him to bend the edge on tackles. He is often doubled, but regularly defeats double teams and creates pressure on the QB. Adding a pass rusher of his caliber to what is now an already stacked DL will force opposing offenses to get the ball out quickly.
Alternate Selections: DE Jared Verse, WR Malik Nabers, TE Brock Bowers, CB Terrion Arnold

Round 2 Pick 46: CB T.J. Tampa Iowa State
The Colts front office has shown a penchant recently for liking their CBs tall, long, fast, athletic, good in zone, and physical. T.J. Tampa checks all of those boxes and will provide another option at both the slot and boundary CB positions.
Alternate Selections: DT Kris Jenkins, TE Ja'Tavion Sanders, DE Adisa Isaac, DE Jonah Elliss, WR Malachi Corley

Round 3 Pick 82: CB Khyree Jackson Oregon
Doubling up at CB on Day 2, Jackson is another CB that fits the profile of what the Colts seem to be looking for at the position. Big, physical, and fast, Jackson primarily provides more competition for the starting boundary CB position. With this selection, the Colts have Julian Brents, Jaylon Jones, T.J. Tampa, and Khyree Jackson from which to pull two starting boundary CBs.
Alternate Selections: DT Maason Smith, LB Payton Wilson, OG Christian Haynes

Round 4 Pick 118: S Cole Bishop Utah
Another big, fast DB, Bishop is not as long as the Colts typically like, but makes up for it with his speed and explosiveness. Bishop also gives Gus Bradley a Kam Chancellor type enforcer option, or could bulk up and become a LB. The versatility and special teams value are the primary reasons for the pick here.
Alternate Selections: DE Mohamed Kamara, WR Javon Baker

Round 5 Pick 150: DT Khristian Boyd Northern Iowa
Rarely does a 320 pound DT move the way Boyd can move on film. He has tape of chasedown tackles on quite a few RBs. He also holds up very well against a double team and provides some pass rush value as demonstrated in his very good Shrine Bowl week. The Colts could have him lose weight and become a developmental 3 tech, but with Adebawore already on the roster, I think the smart play is to groom Boyd to eventually take over for 30 year old Grover Stewart.

Round 6 Pick 193: RB Issac Guerendo Louisville
Jonathan Taylor's collegiate backup becomes Jonathan Taylor's NFL backup. Guerendo possesses a great blend of size, speed, and power, and has demonstrated value as both a receiver and blocker in limited playing time. Guerendo will have tremendous upside as a RB2 who can provide RB1 quality snaps on a limited basis.

Round 7 Pick 232: OG Karsen Barnhart Michigan
This selection is about one thing: positional versatility. Barnhart instantly slots in as the top backup OG, and could easily challenge Will Fries for the starting RG position, but in addition, Barnhart has experience at all 5 OL positions in college. He may not be used or listed at center or tackle, but in an emergency, he could play there, though maybe not super effectively at the NFL level. Having versatile backups is a way to more easily survive having less than 10 OL on your roster.

2024 Preseason Roster (bold indicates added player)

QB: Anthony Richardson, Gardner Minshew, Sam Ehlinger
RB: Jonathan Taylor, Issac Guerendo, Evan Hull, Tyler Goodson
WR: Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, Ashton Dulin, DJ Montgomery, Tyler Cleveland, Ethan Fernes, Zavier Scott, Terrell Bynum
TE: Jelani Woods, Kylen Granson, Andrew Ogletree, Will Mallory, Eric Tomlinson, Jordan Murray
OT: Braden Smith, Bernhard Raimann, Blake Freeland, Jake Witt, Arlington Hambright, Lewis Kidd
OG: Quenton Nelson, Will Fries, Karsen Barnhart, Josh Sills
OC: Ryan Kelly, Wesley French

DT: DeForest Buckner, Grover Stewart, Eric Johnson, Adetomiwa Abedawore
DE: Danielle Hunter, Laiatu Latu, Samson Ebukam, Kwity Paye, Dayo Odeyingbo, Titus Lee
LB: Zaire Franklin, E.J. Speed, Ronnie Harrison Jr., Segun Olubi, Grant Stuard, Cameron McGrone, Isaiah Land, Austin Ajieke, Liam Anderson
Saf: Julian Blackmon, Rodney Thomas, Nick Cross, Cole Bishop, Daniel Scott, Trevor Denbow, Kendell Brooks, Marcel Dabo, Michael Tutsie
CB: Julius Brents, Kenny Moore II, T.J. Tampa, Dallis Flowers, Jaylon Jones, Khyree Jackson, Darrell Baker Jr., Chris Lammons, Ameer Speed

LS: Luke Rhodes
PK: Matt Gay
P: Rigoberto Sanchez

UPDATE: The actual NFL cap increased to $255.4 million, while an estimate of $242.5 million was used above, resulting in an extra $12.9 million of cap space. Per Over The Cap, only $4.205 million of additional cap space is needed to sign our rookies, leaving:

Remaining Usable Cap Space: $10.713 million

Quoting this to bump it because I did the update today. Now featuring full 7 Round mock draft.

[YDFL Commish]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

Quoting this to bump it because I did the update today. Now featuring full 7 Round mock draft.

Nice job on the roster update. I won't critique the draft, other than I like the 1st round pick.

A couple of things on the roster though.

Zavier Scott is working out as a RB not a WR (even though he was a WR at Maine).

At DE, Ballard has spoken highly of Jake Martin and Isaiah Land, who both received playing time this past season, while Titus Leo was injured. Land in particular should be in the mix at DE.

[IndyNorm]

All of your individual moves and picks make sense Dam, but I will be very surprised and disappointed if we stand pat on O. AR needs more weapons in the passing game, and Ballard knows this. At least per his comments he does.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

All of your individual moves and picks make sense Dam, but I will be very surprised and disappointed if we stand pat on O. AR needs more weapons in the passing game, and Ballard knows this. At least per his comments he does.

I added a RB.

But in all seriousness, that was more of a "what I would do" offseason than a "what I expect the Colts to do" offseason. I also didn't allow myself trades for this because there's no one to negotiate against, but based on the recent press conferences, I believe the Colts want to trade back and draft Brian Thomas Jr. or Adonai Mitchell. The Eagles would be the perfect trade partner, with 22 and 53 to offer in a trade down. I could also see GB moving up with 25 and 58.

[IndyNorm]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

I added a RB.

But in all seriousness, that was more of a "what I would do" offseason than a "what I expect the Colts to do" offseason. I also didn't allow myself trades for this because there's no one to negotiate against, but based on the recent press conferences, I believe the Colts want to trade back and draft Brian Thomas Jr. or Adonai Mitchell. The Eagles would be the perfect trade partner, with 22 and 53 to offer in a trade down. I could also see GB moving up with 25 and 58.

Yeah, saw your other post on this. I think this would be a good move assuming we could still draft either Thomas or Mitchell and that Bowers or any of the other elite prospects drop to us.

[apballin]

Some times it matters sometimes it means nothing but as of right now the Colts are the slight favorites to draft Bowers

[ukcolt]

With a lot of the re-signings having taken place etc, where are we at with the Cap space now? Do we have enough money to actually sign Blackmon and Sneed without restructuring existing contracts?