Realistic Expectations for Brissett

[VeveJones007]

2017 Stats:
16 GP (15 starts), 3,098 yards, 58.8% comp %, 13 TDs, 7 INTs, 52 sacks

Obviously, a lot has changed with the 2019 roster.

• The coaching is significantly improved with a coach who is known to emphasize a player's strengths.
• The OL is night and day better than it was (Luck was sacked only 18 times last year).
• There are better, more dynamic playmakers at receiver, TE, and RB.
• The defense is markedly better and should create more turnovers and keep the offense in better situations.

I think the biggest two questions influencing Brissett in 2019 will be 1) his ability to process reads and 2) short-to-medium accuracy. Based on comments from Sirianni, we know that Brissett has taken steps to improve in both areas.

What does that mean for our expectations for Brissett in 2019? There's certainly a range of probable outcomes, but I think a reasonable comp would be Dak Prescott's 2018 stat line:
3,885 yards, 67.7% comp %, 22 TDs, 8 INTs

[ChoppedWood]

Originally Posted by VeveJones007

2017 Stats:
16 GP (15 starts), 3,098 yards, 58.8% comp %, 13 TDs, 7 INTs, 52 sacks

Obviously, a lot has changed with the 2019 roster.

• The coaching is significantly improved with a coach who is known to emphasize a player's strengths.
• The OL is night and day better than it was (Luck was sacked only 18 times last year).
• There are better, more dynamic playmakers at receiver, TE, and RB.
• The defense is markedly better and should create more turnovers and keep the offense in better situations.

I think the biggest two questions influencing Brissett in 2019 will be 1) his ability to process reads and 2) short-to-medium accuracy. Based on comments from Sirianni, we know that Brissett has taken steps to improve in both areas.

What does that mean for our expectations for Brissett in 2019? There's certainly a range of probably outcomes, but I think a reasonable comp would be Dak Prescott's 2018 stat line:
3,885 yards, 67.7% comp %, 22 TDs, 8 INTs

Healthy, I think he's over 4,000, this lineup is stacked, he's had all the reps, and Reich is the brains behind it...

I'm not sold on his %, that to me is the marked difference between he and Andrew. I will peg him right around 60%.

TD's I think we're going to see it light up like the 4th in that area, I think he's 32+.

He scares me a bit more with the INT's, I would not be shocked if he ends up 15-18 range in INT's. Good news is, I think he's got a D that can rescue him in a lot of cases.

[rcubed]

Originally Posted by ChoppedWood

I'm not sold on his %, that to me is the marked difference between he and Andrew. I will peg him right around 60%.

lucks career comp % is 60.8

[ChoppedWood]

Originally Posted by rcubed

lucks career comp % is 60.8

I know, and he ramped it up to I think 67% last year, which is a great increase on a percentile basis, in large part due to the scheme that Reich employees- the ball is not traveling near as far as it's built much like the Pats for separation and YAC. I just don't think Jacoby is going to deliver it as on time as Luck did last year.

Sucks because I could really have seen Luck, with these weapons, 2nd year in the program, I could have seen him toying with 70% this year.

[VeveJones007]

Originally Posted by ChoppedWood

Healthy, I think he's over 4,000, this lineup is stacked, he's had all the reps, and Reich is the brains behind it...

I'm not sold on his %, that to me is the marked difference between he and Andrew. I will peg him right around 60%.

TD's I think we're going to see it light up like the 4th in that area, I think he's 32+.

He scares me a bit more with the INT's, I would not be shocked if he ends up 15-18 range in INT's. Good news is, I think he's got a D that can rescue him in a lot of cases.

I don’t think any of that is likely if he’s around 60% comp rate. That’s Bortles territory. He needs to be around 65% if he’s going to have any success.

[ChoppedWood]

Originally Posted by VeveJones007

I don’t think any of that is likely if he’s around 60% comp rate. That’s Bortles territory. He needs to be around 65% if he’s going to have any success.

You also brought sacks into the equation and I think that is just a critical piece of the puzzle, and it's going to have a corollary relationship (duh) with Jacoby.

Now granted, his Oline in 17' was dogshit, worse I think it was the shit scraped up before it becomes dog shit. That said, he just held the ball too long and even in the Cleveland game which is the only snaps he's had- he showed some signs of doing it again.

So, if we can assume:
1- Oline is NEAR what they were last year (18 sacks is so absurd)
2- He has taken the coaching to heart and understands he doesn't have to score on every poss so he throws the ball away...
If those two happen, let's say <25 sacks, then I think his INT rate will be 12-13, and if so, his completion rate may be down a bit just due to some throw-aways vs forces...if so he will be getting tons of positive press and we're going to be rolling.

It's early, but it's also scary that really there's been no game action for the real Oline- which bothers me. FUCK I could really benefit by seeing a Big-Q balls to your face smash right now!

[VeveJones007]

Originally Posted by ChoppedWood

You also brought sacks into the equation and I think that is just a critical piece of the puzzle, and it's going to have a corollary relationship (duh) with Jacoby.

Now granted, his Oline in 17' was dogshit, worse I think it was the shit scraped up before it becomes dog shit. That said, he just held the ball too long and even in the Cleveland game which is the only snaps he's had- he showed some signs of doing it again.

So, if we can assume:
1- Oline is NEAR what they were last year (18 sacks is so absurd)
2- He has taken the coaching to heart and understands he doesn't have to score on every poss so he throws the ball away...
If those two happen, let's say <25 sacks, then I think his INT rate will be 12-13, and if so, his completion rate may be down a bit just due to some throw-aways vs forces...if so he will be getting tons of positive press and we're going to be rolling.

It's early, but it's also scary that really there's been no game action for the real Oline- which bothers me. FUCK I could really benefit by seeing a Big-Q balls to your face smash right now!

Actually, I take back my 65% rate to some extent. While it's a bit of an outlier, he could pull a Cam Newton and put up 3,837/35 TDs/10 INTs on 60% comp rate. I like his odds a lot better if he's around 65%, but it isn't unprecedented.

[JAFF]

He can't be a turnover machine.

The entire team has got to pitch in. He can't carry the entire load. The other stars have got to step up and carry the load for a while

Having a dink and dunk O plan is not terrible, it helped Brady when didn't know shit. The Eagles won with it.

Lean on the D. Take risks with the D. Unleash the HOUNDS!!!!! If they make a mistake, have it happen and warp speed

[AlwaysSunnyinIndy]

Originally Posted by VeveJones007

Obviously, a lot has changed with the 2019 roster.

• The coaching is significantly improved with a coach who is known to emphasize a player's strengths.
• The OL is night and day better than it was (Luck was sacked only 18 times last year).
• There are better, more dynamic playmakers at receiver, TE, and RB.
• The defense is markedly better and should create more turnovers and keep the offense in better situations.

One other thing to remember about the 2017 season - JB had no training camp with the team.

He was traded to the Colts and then 8 days later was QB'ing in a regular season game (he relieved the infamous Scott Tolzien who had gone 9 for 18 for 128 yards with two Pick-6's over the first 3 quarters). I doubt Jacoby knew all of his teammates names, let alone the playbook.

I won't speculate on stats but I think Jacoby will be a bit inconsistent this season. There will be games that he puts up some awesome numbers (probably against AFC South opponents) - but he will have some clunkers as well.

Hopefully he has developed some chemistry / timing with his receiving corps during camp and preseason activities. And as stated, leans on his teammates because this 2019 team is a lot more talented than the 2017 team.

[Lov2fish]

I think he shocks Colt nation. Reich and Ballard have known for a few weeks, or had an inclination of the impending doom. I guarantee he has changed up some plays to fit Colby's strengths. He can run and is elusive, just got to remember to get down and not take unnecessary hits. Throw the ball away when nothing is there. I hope he gets the ball out quicker. Look receivers off and not lock onto a certain player in the play. Recognize defensive schemes and blitz packages and where the pressure is most likely coming from. If he has picked these things up and they worked on his mechanics I think you see 4100-4200 yards, 33-35 TD's and about 15 picks.

If he hasn't? I guess the Chad Kelly era will start in earnest by game 4.