Draft 2021

[Racehorse]

Originally Posted by Spike

I agree! The Irsay's have donated 4 million to charity, doesn't sound like a money problem to me. I have said this before, I wouldn't trade Irsay for any other owner in the league. He has the money, Ballard is just being smarter than most of the other GM's. He isn't overpaying for mediocre to average talent. I was one who was on the sign Carl Lawson bandwagon, but he was the only one I kinda wish Ballard would have signed. But for his production, not sure he was worth 15 million per year for 3 years. He is good, but not dominant. Ballard is one smart SOB.

Ballard has said over and over that he prefers to draft good young guys, and pay the ones that produce. It is a smart way to do business, because you need a good mix of rookie contracts to counter paying the studs that you drafted when their contracts expire.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by Spike

Uh, no. Lawrence is the number 1 QB, period. My only question about him is that he is kinda like Luck. Football may not be is primary focus in life based on his latest statements. But you can't tell me that he is lower than any of these other 4 QB's talent wise. He is a generational talent and I watched a lot of Clemson games, I can't say that about any of the other 4 QB's. Every GM in the league would take Lawrence 1st and that is just not debatable, and they are a hell of a lot smarter than me and you. The only way I see him busting is because he goes to the Jackoffs and they fucking ruin him. Outside of the Texans, they are the worst run franchise in the league. But that's ok, love to see it.

What in the film did you see that led you to those conclusions? I gave a very specific and detailed reasoning as to why I feel the way I do. I can accept that you have a different opinion, part of the reason I posted that was not being able to go back and specifically cite where I ranked Russell Wilson ahead of RGIII, also seen as crazy at the time. But it's going to take a lot more than "uh, no" to convince me that the flaws I saw on his film aren't real. As for what GMs would do, I acknowledged in my post that Lawrence has the highest ceiling in the group, and NFL GMs are very prone to convincing themselves to look past flaws and floor to try to get the best ceiling. I'd rather have the best range of outcomes, especially with a Top 10 pick, than just the best ceiling.

[Chromeburn]

Originally Posted by JAFF

Why? The TV money covers the cap. Isnt there a cap floor that all teams must cover? If the Colts cant do that, I might believe they have money problems.

You guys just cant out guess Chris Ballard.

Please. Because he operates a ridiculous amount under the cap. Don’t give me the propaganda lines. He keeps fucking around and not addressing team holes. You can’t fill every position with the draft. Then I hear bullshit excuses like “well we weren’t a contender this year anyway.” Well wtf are you doing then half fielding a team. If you addressed the holes maybe we would be a contender.

And don’t give me the “we sign our own.” How many free agents have we signed over four years? A lot. We have plenty of money to sign 1 top FA pass rusher and sign all our upcoming contacts. I just read an article the other day on every pass rusher drafted since 2010, Turay, Banagu, and Lewis were all in the bust section. That’s exactly who we’re are heading into next season with. Even if we draft a pass rusher high, a rookie isn’t going to fix this group.

[Chromeburn]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

I know Horn has good bloodlines, and I know he's an excellent cover CB. I also know Ballard values physicality and tackling ability from the CB position, and I don't know that Horn has that. I'm not even saying I would dislike having him on the team, just that I don't see Ballard pulling the trigger on him specifically. I also think it's a largely irrelevant discussion because Horn is incredibly likely to go Top 15.

Regarding Ojulari, given his HWS, alma mater, and production, I think a Justin Houston comp is much more apt than the Yannick Ngakoue one they put on him at the Athletic. That said, the Colts should have pursued Ngakoue, and IMO it would be a mistake to pass on Ojulari unless Slater or Jenkins is there. Regarding Phillips, I see a highly refined technically sound DE with athleticism that, in combination, will allow him to be a productive starter provided the medical team clears the Colts to draft him. IMO Phillips has a TJ Watt ceiling with a Denico Autry floor. That's a player I want on my team.

First round CB with no trade down is pretty much a nightmare scenario, and the same could be said for any position other than OT and EDGE at 21. That said, I think the recent resigning of T.J. Carrie combined with the earlier resigning of Xavier Rhodes indicates that CB is not a position they'll target early in the draft.

Thing with Olujari, he will be a 9-tech. If they want to bring him in on 3rd and long, or maybe release him in the 4th quarter to close out a game - ok that’s fine with me. I think he might be the most productive of the bunch. But I don’t know if that is the best investment for a first rounder.

Phillips is intriguing, the athletiscm and potential is there, but he had 4 concussions at UCLA and they told him to quit football. He also broke his wrist on a moped accident. But the arm length, speed , explosion, all good. However, if Ballard passes on Montez Sweat, who Irsay commented on at the combine (something he never does). Are they going to draft Philips in the 1st?

I don’t know about the TJ Watt comparison, I haven’t seen one yet that fits. Even the Miami coach couldn’t come up with a comparison for him.

It’s good we signed Carrie bc he outplayed Sin last year. Xavier is on a one year deal, Sin is in a probe it year. I think you might be underestimating the teams need for a number one corner. Not to say pass rush is in better shape, it isn’t. I just like the chance to fill the corner position with that number one better than the pass rush position this year.

Pass rush guys I could see them drafting 2nd or later is Joe Tryon, Elerson Smith, Payton Turner.

[Butter]

Originally Posted by Chromeburn

I’m starting to wonder if we have money problems.

With some huge upcoming contracts that are going to have a lot of upfront money, the Colts may have a bit of a cash-on-hand issue. Nelson and Nelson are going to get paid.

[JAFF]

Originally Posted by Chromeburn

Please. Because he operates a ridiculous amount under the cap. Don’t give me the propaganda lines. He keeps fucking around and not addressing team holes. You can’t fill every position with the draft. Then I hear bullshit excuses like “well we weren’t a contender this year anyway.” Well wtf are you doing then half fielding a team. If you addressed the holes maybe we would be a contender.

And don’t give me the “we sign our own.” How many free agents have we signed over four years? A lot. We have plenty of money to sign a top FA pass rusher and sign all our upcoming contacts. I just read an article the other day on every pass rusher drafted since 2010, Turay, Banago, and Lewis were all in the bust section. That’s exactly who we’re are heading into next season with. Even if we draft a pass rusher high, a rookie isn’t going to fix this group.

And giving Bud Dupree $33 000 000 at signing makes the Titans look smart? Barrett is 31 yrs old, why throw money there?

How many sure fire pass rushing studs get to free agency? There is no savior in this group.

[Chromeburn]

Originally Posted by Butter

With some huge upcoming contracts that are going to have a lot of upfront money, the Colts may have a bit of a cash-on-hand issue. Nelson and Nelson are going to get paid.

We have plenty of money to resign those guys AND sign a pass rusher. This is a false narrative.

Tampa Bay had 15 million entering this off season and they signed

WR Chris Godwin (franchise tag)
TE Rob Gronkowski (1 year, $8M)
DT Ndamukong Suh (1 year, $8M)
OLB Shaquil Barrett (4 years, $68M)
LB Lavonte David (2 years, $25M)
K Ryan Succop (3 years, $12M)
RB Leonard Fournette (1 year, $4M)


We had 69 million entering the offseason.

[Spike]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

What in the film did you see that led you to those conclusions? I gave a very specific and detailed reasoning as to why I feel the way I do. I can accept that you have a different opinion, part of the reason I posted that was not being able to go back and specifically cite where I ranked Russell Wilson ahead of RGIII, also seen as crazy at the time. But it's going to take a lot more than "uh, no" to convince me that the flaws I saw on his film aren't real. As for what GMs would do, I acknowledged in my post that Lawrence has the highest ceiling in the group, and NFL GMs are very prone to convincing themselves to look past flaws and floor to try to get the best ceiling. I'd rather have the best range of outcomes, especially with a Top 10 pick, than just the best ceiling.

This quote of yours goes against what I saw.

Like I said, I watched a lot of Clemson games, not just this year. I disagree with pretty much all of the above quote. Instead of just writing all of this out, just take out your negatives for Lawrence and replace them with positives. He is the best prospect since Luck. We will see who is right or wrong, at least we won't get fired for getting it wrong.

For me:

1. Lawrence
2. Wilson
3. Fields
4. Lance
5. Jones (Although if Jones goes to the 49ers or Pats, I think he will do well). If he went to the Jags or Jets, not so much. I really think Jones has to have a great situation around him to flourish, like he had at Alabama.

[Chromeburn]

Originally Posted by JAFF

And giving Bud Dupree $33 000 000 at signing makes the Titans look smart? Barrett is 31 yrs old, why throw money there?

How many sure fire pass rushing studs get to free agency? There is no savior in this group.

What about Carl Lawson? What about Ngakoue? What about Okwara? What about JJ watt? What about the pass rushers last year or the year before?

At least the Titans are trying to fix the problem. Oh and they won the division last year. Barret seemed to have a pretty good impact on the Bucs.

What’s your answer Jaff? Ben Banagu? How are they going to fix it? Because it’s been a problem for years now

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by Chromeburn

Thing with Olujari, he will be a 9-tech. If they want to bring him in on 3rd and long, or maybe release him in the 4th quarter to close out a game - ok that’s fine with me. I think he might be the most productive of the bunch. But I don’t know if that is the best investment for a first rounder.

Phillips is intriguing, the athletiscm and potential is there, but he had 4 concussions at UCLA and they told him to quit football. He also broke his wrist on a moped accident. But the arm length, speed , explosion, all good. However, if Ballard passes on Montez Sweat, who Irsay commented on at the combine (something he never does). Are they going to draft Philips in the 1st?

I don’t know about the TJ Watt comparison, I haven’t seen one yet that fits. Even the Miami coach couldn’t come up with a comparison for him.

It’s good we signed Carrie bc he outplayed Sin last year. Xavier is on a one year deal, Sin is in a probe it year. I think you might be underestimating the teams need for a number one corner. Not to say pass rush is in better shape, it isn’t. I just like the chance to fill the corner position with that number one better than the pass rush position this year.

Pass rush guys I could see them drafting 2nd or later is Joe Tryon, Elerson Smith, Payton Turner.

Neither Houston nor Ngakoue has to play 9 tech to be successful, nor would Ojulari. Fortunately for us, Ron Meeks isn't still here, otherwise they might try. I'll admit Ojulari is more of a long term play than a short term quick fix to the pass rush problem. I think drafting Ojulari would almost certainly be accompanied by resigning Houston, which would allow the Colts to bring him along slowly and allow Ojulari to learn from two pass rushers he likely has a great deal of respect for that also share his size and speed profile in Houston and Robert Mathis.

Regarding Phillips, I know you respect Brett Kollman's opinion, so do I. Kollman released a video calling Phillips "a terrifying combination of the Watt brothers" last month. While I'm not as high on him as Brett is, if you watch that video, or really any tape of Phillips in 2020, you'll see a technically sound DE with length and athleticism that uses all those traits to effectively generate pressure and disrupt the opposing offense. That was exactly what I saw out of TJ Watt in 2016 when I wanted the Colts to either trade down and pick him or see him slide to their pick in Round 2 of the 2017 draft. Regarding Phillips's injury history, it's a valid concern, there's no two ways about that, and ultimately drafting Phillips would be contingent on getting clearance from the medical staff that they believe his injury history won't have a significant impact on his long term viability as an NFL player. But my understanding is Phillips's injury history is somewhat fluky in nature, he's just had very bad luck, like the moped accident you mentioned, but I wouldn't question his passion for the game based on UCLA's stupid rule that 3 concussions (and it was 3, not 4) is an automatic forced medical retirement from football at UCLA. In fact, I would argue his coming back from that and transferring elsewhere to finish his collegiate career proves a great passion for football, as he had the perfect out to get away from the game if he wanted to in UCLA's rule. Instead, he sought out a transfer, found a team he was able to make an impact with, and went out and had a pretty solid, productive season that was also injury free. It has to go through the medical team, but Phillips could be another guy like Watt and Sweat that we'll be wishing Ballard had pulled the trigger on several years later if he doesn't. As for a comp for Phillips, I already gave my reasoning on TJ Watt, but Phillips and Chase Young were neck and neck for top DE in the country when they came out of high school. That's mostly tongue in cheek, of course.

I fully understand this team has a long term need for a #1 shutdown corner type, but I also recognize that need as more long term the way the roster stands at present. CB is also a position that Ballard has had a lot of success at finding a lot of value on Day 3 and in UDFA, where DE/EDGE has been less successful in those regards. I'm not saying it's impossible the Colts would draft a CB at 21 or 54, but to me, doing that leaves you with a major glaring hole at LT or EDGE going into 2021 that you can try to fill with a developmental guy, but that may not work. If a CB is not drafted at 21 or 54, the Colts go into 2021 with Xavier Rhodes, Kenny Moore, Rock Ya-Sin, TJ Carrie, Isaiah Rodgers (who looked good down the stretch), and Marvell Tell III. That's a solid depth chart already, and while it would likely be intelligent to supplement it with a Day 2 pick in 2022 since Rhodes and Carrie aren't getting any younger, it's a fine group to get through the 2021 season with IMO.

I think there are a lot of players with a lot of potential to develop into quality pass rushers on Day 2 and beyond. A small list, in no particular order, that I think could find success as a pure edge or in the Denico Autry role for the Colts and could be available on Day 2:

Gregory Rousseau
Jayson Oweh
Ronnie Perkins
Payton Turner
Joseph Ossai
Joe Tryon
Cameron Sample
Dayo Odeyingbo
Rashad Weaver
Tarron Jackson
Osa Odighizuwa
Milton Williams
Jaylen Twyman
Elerson Smith
Quincy Roche
William Bradley-King

Knowing Ballard's tendency to greatly value Senior Bowl performance, keep your eye on Elerson Smith, Tarron Jackson, and Cameron Sample from that group, as all 3 had excellent practice weeks at the Senior Bowl, most of all Elerson Smith, who seemed to beat everyone there in the same way Quinn Meinerz did, he just didn't get as much attention for it.

Originally Posted by Spike

This quote of yours goes against what I saw.

Like I said, I watched a lot of Clemson games, not just this year. I disagree with pretty much all of the above quote. Instead of just writing all of this out, just take out your negatives for Lawrence and replace them with positives. He is the best prospect since Luck. We will see who is right or wrong, at least we won't get fired for getting it wrong.

For me:

1. Lawrence
2. Wilson
3. Fields
4. Lance
5. Jones (Although if Jones goes to the 49ers or Pats, I think he will do well). If he went to the Jags or Jets, not so much. I really think Jones has to have a great situation around him to flourish, like he had at Alabama.

I'm not saying you're wrong because of this, but your ranking is the most consensus ranking of the QB position (6 is Mond, typically, by the way). That suggests to me that you're doing less watching of the film and more listening to the pundits who all seem to have this tendency to want to align with one another rather than have their own opinions. There should be a larger variance in prospect rankings than what exists in the general draft "expert" community, because not everyone is going to value the same traits at each position. I know that the traits I value at the QB position are the result of seeing what went right with my good evaluations over the years and what went wrong with my bad ones, and they tend to differ vastly from a lot of the scouting community. An easy example of this is that I value athleticism from the QB position much less than the average NFL scout or draft pundit, and I value anticipation throws much more. That's because, as I explained before, athleticism can land a QB on IR and/or cut his career short, and good pocket mobility is often a sufficient substitute at the QB position for athleticism, and one that will keep your QB around longer. Anticipation throws, meanwhile, are a good barometer of how much preparation work a QB is putting in, how well that QB understands the concepts of his offense and how quickly he can pick them up, and how well that QB can read a defense in real time, as well as pick up subtle nuances on certain players that will give him situational advantages in games. I'd say out of the scouting community that exists right now, the people who I most closely align with on evaluating QBs are Kyle Shanahan and Chris Simms. That's why I fully believe Mac Jones will be the pick at 3 and that the talk happening there isn't a smokescreen in the slightest.

Also, your comment on Mac Jones there doesn't make much sense to me. Of course situation is important for Mac Jones, situation is important for every player. Patrick Mahomes wouldn't be Patrick Mahomes had the Dolphins drafted him. Nate Solder would've likely been the colossal bust I thought he was destined to be had Dante Scarnecchia not gotten hold of him. Joey Galloway and Joe Horn were highly talented receivers who were never quite as good as Marvin Harrison in part because neither Galloway nor Horn ever had elite QB play, whereas Marvin had the greatest QB to ever play throwing him the ball for all but one season of his career. I could name hundreds and thousands more examples like this, but I think the point is made.