Carson Wentz's contract isn't a factor in Colts QB decision

[JAFF]

https://www.indystar.com/story/sport...on/6817937001/


IANAPOLIS — The speculation around Carson Wentz’s future is rising again.

The first time the topic got hot was right at the end of the regular season, when Colts head coach Frank Reich and general manager Chris Ballard declined to commit to Wentz as the team’s starter in 2022. The burner started turning red again on Super Bowl Sunday, when ESPN’s Chris Mortensen reported that Wentz’s future in Indianapolis “looks bleak.”

A team source indicated to IndyStar that no firm decisions have been made on Wentz or any other Colts player.

But the report, the lack of certainty from the team’s chief decision-makers and the way the passing game became a dead weight Indianapolis couldn’t overcome have made Wentz’s future a hot topic on every podcast, talk radio and TV show that covers the NFL.


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A surprising line of thinking has emerged in some places.

The idea the Colts wouldn’t be able move on from Wentz because of his contract.

Wentz is due to count a little more than $28 million against the salary cap in 2022, a figure the Colts would be able to escape completely if Wentz is traded — unless Indianapolis made a deal with the acquiring team to offset some of that hit — and a figure that would cost the Colts $15 million in dead money if the team released its starter by March 18.


There’s not a whole lot of evidence to support the idea that Wentz’s contract would somehow keep Indianapolis from making a move at quarterback.

First of all, Colts owner Jim Irsay has repeatedly said he’ll do whatever it takes to avoid a repeat of 2021’s collapse in 2022, and absorbing a $15 million hit would fall under the umbrella of “whatever it takes.”


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That’s exactly how Irsay and the Colts should view this situation.

If Indianapolis decides to move on from Wentz and can’t find a trade partner — a distinct possibility, given the number of teams that need quarterbacks this offseason and the lack of obvious options available — that $15 million dead hit shouldn’t make the Colts blink at all.


Story continues below the gallery.


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For starters, the $15 million dead hit also comes with $13 million in salary cap savings, savings that would push the team’s available cap space to something close to $50 million in money, plenty of room to add a quarterback and make other upgrades to the roster.

Beyond that, the Colts haven’t blinked at the costs of making a necessary quarterback move in the past. When Indianapolis decided to sign Philip Rivers after a similar collapse in the passing game in 2019, Jacoby Brissett was still on the roster and on the team’s salary cap rolls to the tune of more than $21 million.

In other words, more than the dead hit Indianapolis would have to incur to release Wentz.

The Colts signed Rivers anyway and carried more than $50 million of cap space at the quarterback position.

But the urgency of the situation and the historical precedent Indianapolis has already set are not the only two reasons that Irsay and the Colts are making the right move to ignore Wentz’s contract in their decision-making process this offseason.


From a philosophical standpoint, the Colts are making the right move.

Holding onto a player simply because of the assets involved in acquiring the player is the football equivalent of the economic concept of sunk cost fallacy. If the Colts believe they can get better by moving on from Wentz, a price they’ve already proven they can handle should have no bearing on the decision. The same goes for the draft picks Indianapolis gave up to get him.

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The only way Wentz’s contract might matter is in a trade with a new team, a team that might not want to pay the twice-deposed starter $28 million in 2022, even though it wouldn’t cost his new team — or the Colts, for that matter — any money to release Wentz after the 2022 season. If that’s a concern, there would be ways for Wentz’s new team to get some relief.

The Colts could decide to pay part of the costs, the way the Broncos did to trade Von Miller to the Rams this season. Wentz could also agree to a restructured contract, a move Nick Foles made when the Jaguars traded him to the Bears in 2020.

And that Foles trade might be the precedent that renders all of this speculation moot anyway.

When the Jaguars decided to move past Foles, he was one year into a big free agent contract. Moving him meant Jacksonville would have to take an $18.75 million dead hit, and Foles had lost his job to Gardner Minshew. Based on the way some people are talking about the Wentz situation, Foles shouldn’t have been tradeable, either.

The Jaguars found a way to move on.

The Colts can, too. A sunk cost shouldn’t get in the way.

[Racehorse]

I am torn. I don't see a real upgrade being available, and I despise the idea of tanking. I feel like we are stuck and this loser is actually our best option, and not a very good one. That said, I like the idea of trading him, and saving the $28M, and looking to upgrade other areas and sign a competent veteran as a stop-gap.

[Oldcolt]

Originally Posted by Racehorse

I am torn. I don't see a real upgrade being available, and I despise the idea of tanking. I feel like we are stuck and this loser is actually our best option, and not a very good one. That said, I like the idea of trading him, and saving the $28M, and looking to upgrade other areas and sign a competent veteran as a stop-gap.

I like your thinking but think that quality free agents are going to be a tough sell for a club without a QB

[JAFF]

Originally Posted by Racehorse

I am torn. I don't see a real upgrade being available, and I despise the idea of tanking. I feel like we are stuck and this loser is actually our best option, and not a very good one. That said, I like the idea of trading him, and saving the $28M, and looking to upgrade other areas and sign a competent veteran as a stop-gap.

$28 million in monopoly money. Its beer nuts if they can get the right guy. Its the money Jim finds in his couch cushions when the Rolling Stones head home after a long week end

[Racehorse]

Originally Posted by Oldcolt

I like your thinking but think that quality free agents are going to be a tough sell for a club without a QB

Same problem if we keep Wentz.

[Racehorse]

Originally Posted by JAFF

$28 million in monopoly money. Its beer nuts if they can get the right guy. Its the money Jim finds in his couch cushions when the Rolling Stones head home after a long week end

Yes, but this is not MLB or NBA money.

[JAFF]

Originally Posted by Racehorse

Yes, but this is not MLB or NBA money.

Come on, they will redo other contracts and find a way. The Rams just won a super bowl with no draft picks and a bulging salary cap.

[Racehorse]

Originally Posted by JAFF

Come on, they will redo other contracts and find a way. The Rams just won a super bowl with no draft picks and a bulging salary cap.

Cutting/trading Wentz is what they will do.

[nate505]

I'm not torn. Even if they go with a washed up retread, maybe that guy can figure out how to play with a running game and can make simple plays that punish teams for stacking the box. And if that guy ends up sucking, at least they'll have a high draft pick next season for a QB.

[Racehorse]

Originally Posted by nate505

I'm not torn. Even if they go with a washed up retread, maybe that guy can figure out how to play with a running game and can make simple plays that punish teams for stacking the box. And if that guy ends up sucking, at least they'll have a high draft pick next season for a QB.

That is where I am at on this. However, if they trot Wentz back out there, I am hoping he figures out how to make the easy play. He missed a lot of opportunities to do so because he was always trying to hit the long pass play instead. If that is fixable, he could do well here. His tendencies show that he cannot do so, so I am ready to see who the next QB is going to be.