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  #41  
Old 02-11-2021, 06:00 PM
JAFF JAFF is offline
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Originally Posted by TheMugwump View Post
Just going to throw my own worthless opinion in here.

I acknowledge the importance of having a franchise QB to the success of the team, but I got so sick and tired of Peyton having to cover for an average to below average O-line (sorry, but truth), a crappy run defense, and for the most part, a below average secondary that I'm happy to see the team go the other route for several years and build an incredibly strong, and hopefully deep, team in all the other areas while they tinker, and hope, and use their strong scouting team to find a good to great QB to maybe do only slightly better than game manage.

Probably not the way to a Super Bowl win, but you never know. Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, and Joe Flacco have all won in the last few decades, so it's not impossible. And yeah, they all had incredible defenses, but that's my point. There is another route.

And Peyton was an all-timer, one of the five best, if not the best, ever. And he won one ring in Indy. What are the odds that we get anyone even close to as good as he was? And if we do, at what cost to the rest of the roster?

So, yeah, I'm on the Sam Darnold, or Carson Wentz, or Ryan Fitzpatrick, or even, if necessary, Jameis Winston bandwagon. Use that first rounder to grab the best OT or DE available. Shore up the back end of the defense with some more solid draft picks (the track record shows we can depend on at least two or three new starters from this draft). Roll with the average guy who they might be able to coach up.

I think even with QB being the "most important position in sports", there are other routes to the top.
While Manning was a Colt there were other players who took up cap space:

Marvin Harrison (HOF)
Edge (HOF)
Freeney
Mathis
Sanders
Reggie Wayne (possible HOF)
Jeff Saturday
Tarik Glenn
Anton Bethea

Thats just off the top of my head. No Manning, are they going to have the same success with Ryan Fitzpatrick?
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  #42  
Old 02-11-2021, 06:39 PM
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Originally Posted by rm1369 View Post
I think guys often overlook the amount of turnover on NFL rosters. Here is a part of a post I made on a discussion on roster building a year or two ago:



This can be an argument for why a rookie QB doesn’t make sense as well I suppose. But to me it just highlights how fleeting the build an “entire roster” idea some are suggesting is. It simply can not stay together in the modern NFL. The only consistent way to win big is with a top level QB. To find one you usually have to either be bad, willing to pay (draft picks), or ridiculously lucky. We know Ballard doesn’t plan on the first one. I’m hoping they aren’t going with the last option. Would be a shame to waste a lot of the talent he has accumulated.
There is merit in that. There is also merit in looking at the reason for roster turnover, and I freely admit that this is speculation, I am looking up no data.

Of the, roughly, 19 roster spots that can be expected to change hands in a four year period, given that your data is consistent with all teams and for other sets of years, how many of those are lost to free agency? My guess it that it's higher on the good teams, like NE, Pitts, and GB than on middle and lower tier teams, because it's probably fair to say that those teams have deeper rosters, and a wider array of above average players. But let's say that the loss of two players a year, purely through FA is a good average. Over four years, that's eight starters. The other eleven? Retirement. Better players coming in through the draft and FA (not every player, even on the top teams, is Pro Bowl quality, and a good GM is constantly looking for upgrades). And there are also younger players who improve enough to move from backup to starter. So, while "Build an entire roster" as a philosophy might seem pointless in a system where there is so much turnover, it is a great goal if you realize that more than half of those lost are probably replaced by a better, or at least comparable player.

At least when a team has a good GM.

And when the baseline before turnover is high, then the replacements who come in and take those jobs must be higher quality.

This is all conjecture, rn1369, and my wife and kids will tell you that most of the time I have no idea what I'm talking about. But it seems to me that if you start with high quality and only replace with equal or better parts (except when you are priced out and lose a quality guy to FA), then the whole roster philosophy holds water.
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  #43  
Old 02-11-2021, 06:42 PM
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Originally Posted by JAFF View Post
While Manning was a Colt there were other players who took up cap space:

Marvin Harrison (HOF)
Edge (HOF)
Freeney
Mathis
Sanders
Reggie Wayne (possible HOF)
Jeff Saturday
Tarik Glenn
Anton Bethea

Thats just off the top of my head. No Manning, are they going to have the same success with Ryan Fitzpatrick?
You're right. They wouldn't. Only someone as great as Manning was could lift the team to what it accomplished. Which supports the argument to build a better team, because you don't find Peyton Manning's lying around every day.
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  #44  
Old 02-18-2021, 05:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Colts And Orioles View Post
o


In my rat's ass of an opinion, Chris Ballard has backed up what he asserted several years ago when he first took the job as GM of the Colts ...... he has built a complete team, as opposed to just a team that was extremely dependent on a great QB (such as Peyton Manning and/or Andrew Luck) that would be shit out of luck should that player go down with an injury (for the most extreme example of this, see the Colts' 2011 Manningless/Luckless season in which they went 2-14. For slightly less acute examples of this, see the 2015 Colts with Matt Hasselbeck and the 2017 Colts with Jacoby Brissett.)

I liked the signing of Philip Rivers, and I consider the 2020 season to have been a successful one for the Colts (both for Rivers as an individual, and for the Colts as a team.) I think that they showed that they were very capable of beating the elites of the league when they defeated the Packers in the regular season, and when they just barely lost to the Bills in the post-season. A slightly-past-his-prime Philip Rivers was still good more often than not, and I think that it was abundantly clear that a 39-year-old Rivers was still significantly better than a prime Jacoby Brissett.


All of that said, with the retirement of Philip Rivers, Ballard now faces one of the biggest decisions of his tenure as the team's GM ...... how to put a starting quarterback on the field for the 2021 season who will be at least as good (preferably a little better) as was a 39 year-old Philip Rivers in 2020. I don't envy his dilemma. I would have been OK with acquiring Matthew Stafford. I am not OK with Sam Darnold. I am on the fence about Carson Wentz. My opinion plus 13 dollars will get you a one-way ticket from Brewster, NY to Grand Central Station. My opinion plus 35 dollars will get you a Dwight Freeney jersey on eBay. Stay tuned for the decision that will be made by our GM, who so far has proven to be every bit the franchise builder that he asserted he would be when he first came on board in January of 2017.

o
o


Well, we didn't get Stafford, but we did get my second choice (out of those 3 quarterbacks.)

Wentz' sub-par TD-to-INT ratios in 2016 and 2020 bookended the 3 excellent seasons of TD-to-INT ratios in between.



2016: llllllllllllll)),,) 16 TD's llllll 14 INT's

2020: llllllllllllllllllll) 16 TD's llllll 15 INT's


2017-2019: ),.,. 81 TD's l,,,, 21 INT's

o
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Bert Jones, Johnny Unitas, Earl Morrall ))))))))).lll) Jim Harbaugh, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck

Last edited by Colts And Orioles; 02-18-2021 at 11:03 PM.
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