Quick thoughts on Titans-Colts

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by GoBigBlue88

I believe in Reich wholeheartedly, which is really all that matters. I already believed in Luck.

Honestly, I don't believe in the defense. I believe in the OL, but if Kelly is out, I think that's very much up in the air again.

I'm buying this team beating MIA (although I think MIA is better than most here realize), but it's just HOU's year with the division as they survive every game by the skin of their teeth, it seems, and I think the wildcard race could well come down to @TEN in Week 17.

I think the Colts beat them in Houston. They're a flawed, beatable team that barely escaped Indy with a victory after the Colts made a ton of stupid mistakes. They did not play this Colts team, though. All the Colts need other than that is another loss, and they could capture the division.

[Chaka]

Originally Posted by sherck

My two cents,

OG Mark Glowinski = MUST SIGN. 27 years old and has shown that he belongs in our system. Well worth the cost of a medium to medium-high starting OG 4 year contract. The top nine OGs in the league all make over $10m a year and another 20 make between $5m - $9.99m a year. Glowinski is NOT a top ten OG so I would say go middle ground on that next group and see if Ballard can sign him to a contract around $7.5m a year.

PK Adam Vinatieri = MUST SIGN if he comes back. As long as he is effective, he should be signed. However, the warning point is "as long as he is effective..." Here are his FG success percentages since 2014:

2014 = 96.8% (highest of his career)
2015 = 92.6%
2016 = 87.1%
2017 = 85.3%
2018 = 82.4% (partial season)

Now, he is on pace to only have 27 FG attempts for the season which would be his lowest number for a season since 2008 when he only attempted 25 FGs (not counting his injury shortened 2009 season) so each FG is a magnified portion of his percentage but...that trend is something to watch.

Anyway, I would still sign him to his 2018 contract plus so around $3.750m for the season. Chump change.

CB Pierre Desir = MUST SIGN. He has been the only Colt CB over the season who, game in and game out, is doing his job. He is not an NFL CB1 (or possibly even the CB2 you really want) but he is the kind of guy you need LOTS of to make up a quality secondary while hopefully having one or two studs to play the opposing team's WR1 and WR2 and then the Desir's of the world can cover everyone else. 28 years old next season and I would think that $4m to $5m a year would get him on a 3 year contract.

SS Clayton Geathers = POSSIBLE SIGN. The Bob Sanders effect; effective when on the field but misses a WHOLE lot of time so he is not on the field as much as you would like. Depends on the asking price; the top six safeties in the league are making over $10m a year with 21 making between $5m - $9.99m a year. Due to health, I don't know that I would offer over about $6m - $7m a year to Clayton.

OL Denzelle Good = POSSIBLE SIGN. Very promising his first couple of years in the league; the last couple of years have been injury plagued. While I love the concept of going into 2019 with our Fav Five plus Haeg, Clark and Good already on the roster before free agency or the draft, if we are going to lose one of those eight it would be Good whom I would choose. I would probably only offer him a high end depth contract somewhere in the $2m - $3m a year range.

Too old to sign before 2nd / 3rd phase free agency:

OG Matt Slauson, 33 years old
DL Margus Hunt, 32 years old
NT Al Woods, 32 years old
FS Mike Mitchell, 32 years old
OT J'Marcus Webb, 31 years old
WR Dontrelle Inman, 30 years old

All these guys have contributed to the Colts this season, all are showing that they can play at pretty good levels of play but all will be over 30 years old for 2019 and I would be shocked if Ballard throws money at any of them before free agency hits its 2nd or 3rd phases. I would not mind any of them being on the Colts next season but it will be for low money if not signed for more somewhere else.

Let Walk:

LB Najee Goode
WR Ryan Grant
TE Ryan Hewitt

All other free agents are either Restricted Free Agents or Exclusive Rights Free Agents and will be back with the Colts if the team wants to pay them the chump change that those designations give them.

So, Glowinski, Vinatier and Desir are my MUST SIGN guys along with decisions on how much Geathers and Good are worth to the team.

Walk Worthy,

Thanks as always for the analysis. I agree mostly with who you want to keep, but I think the prices you quote are too high.

Glowinski - probably 2 yrs / $3 million per

Vinatieri - probably about the same as this year.

Desir - my guess is 1-2 year conract, maybe $2.5 per

Geathers - long injury history. My guess is short term contract (1-2 years) at $4-$5 million per

Good - May surprise if a team decides they really like him Free agent tackles get paid.

[nate505]

Originally Posted by Oldcolt

So how many of you Freaks are starting to believe? I'm beginning to have hope that this team may be good. Good enough to do damage if they make the playoffs. I'm getting emotionally invested in winning, just not seeing progress. Am I premature? Probably but I'm beginning to think that this team can beat anyone. The offensive line play yesterday was beyond incredible. It was as good a pass protection game as I have ever seen in over 40 years of watching football. I'm enjoying this year in ways I didn't think possible a month ago. It has been worth holding on thru all the shit we have gone thru the past years just to really get to enjoy the turn around beginning to happen. Happy Monday Freaks!!!

I don't quite have faith they'll do damage in the playoffs...but on the other hand just getting to the playoffs means they're playing with house money this season. Other than a Massacre in the Meadowlands sort of game I'll be beyond thrilled with the season at that point.

[VeveJones007]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

I think the Colts beat them in Houston. They're a flawed, beatable team that barely escaped Indy with a victory after the Colts made a ton of stupid mistakes. They did not play this Colts team, though. All the Colts need other than that is another loss, and they could capture the division.

Colts win the first matchup easily if the OL plays better in the first half. Still, I’m not assuming any wins. The Colts played great against the Titans, but they easily could have lost last week at home to the Jags.

[sherck]

Originally Posted by Chaka

Thanks as always for the analysis. I agree mostly with who you want to keep, but I think the prices you quote are too high.

Glowinski - probably 2 yrs / $3 million per

Vinatieri - probably about the same as this year.

Desir - my guess is 1-2 year conract, maybe $2.5 per

Geathers - long injury history. My guess is short term contract (1-2 years) at $4-$5 million per

Good - May surprise if a team decides they really like him Free agent tackles get paid.

We will see.

Glowinski is playing like a starter in our system and is still young (03 May 1992). He will be 27 for the 2019 season and in the prime of his career.

There are currently 32 OGs in the league that have signed 3/4/5 year veteran contracts (not rookie contracts). If they are signing contracts of that lenght, I am going to be making the assumption that they are projected as starters because NFL teams rarely sign depth players to longish term contracts. I am not going to review every team's roster to confirm that so it is an assumption.

Of those 32 contracts, the AVERAGE is getting paid $5.56m a year with 18 above that amount and 14 below that amount.

To the Colts, Glowinski's play is well above average. Yeah, I worry about him being a "one year wonder" since his time previous to this season as been lackluster (according to PFF grades) but he has shined in this system for this team this season.

Ballard has often said that we will "grow our own" and re-sign our own. To me, that means that if he believe Glowinski is the kind of guy he wants on our team and he has performed, he will get paid.

You think we will be able to pay him like a depth guy. I think if he continues to play like he has, that Ballard will pay him like a starter.

We will see in the off-season who gets closer.

Walk Worthy,

[FatDT]

No chance Glowinski doesn't get paid as a FA. He's a starting guard on one of the most-hyped OLs in the NFL. If he and the OL continue to play well, either the Colts will pay him or another OL-needy team will. I'm not saying he'll be paid like a top 5 guard, but it'll be closer to $7-8M/year, no chance for $3M.

[omahacolt]

Originally Posted by FatDT

No chance Glowinski doesn't get paid as a FA. He's a starting guard on one of the most-hyped OLs in the NFL. If he and the OL continue to play well, either the Colts will pay him or another OL-needy team will. I'm not saying he'll be paid like a top 5 guard, but it'll be closer to $7-8M/year, no chance for $3M.

Works for me. Worth it if he stays healthy. Dude has been playing great

[FatDT]

Originally Posted by omahacolt

Works for me. Worth it if he stays healthy. Dude has been playing great

Yeah it would be dumb to develop him then let him go. Good guards aren't easy to find. I'm pretty sure we have the cap space.

[VeveJones007]

Originally Posted by FatDT

No chance Glowinski doesn't get paid as a FA. He's a starting guard on one of the most-hyped OLs in the NFL. If he and the OL continue to play well, either the Colts will pay him or another OL-needy team will. I'm not saying he'll be paid like a top 5 guard, but it'll be closer to $7-8M/year, no chance for $3M.

I'm fine with that, as long as it's structured in a way that the Colts can get out of it after 1-2 years with limited cap hit. 2019 and 2020 cap space is not an issue whatsoever.

[GoBigBlue88]

1,000,000 percent about re-signing Glowinski, even at inflated price tag. Colts have the cap space, and draft assets need to be poured into defense + WRs.