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  #41  
Old 10-19-2020, 07:58 PM
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Elways numbers were good in his 3rd year. almost 4000 yards and 22 TD's, just high INT's. They also had a record of 12-2 and 11-5 in his 2nd and 3rd years..
True, Elway’s number weren’t too bad, but a mediocre QBR of 70.2 if you believe it that sort of stuff. Completion rate of only 54% too. Led the league in attempts also, so put in context maybe the TD and yardage numbers aren’t all that great. Darnold’s would have been as good or better last year if extrapolated out to 16 games.

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Aikman is a poor choice. He never was a big stats QB. He had Emmitt. He only had one season where he threw for over 20 TD's. .
He’s a hall of fame QB, and the fact that he had Emmitt is kind of my point – Darnold doesn’t have an Emmitt and is left to do everything himself.

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Young sitting behind Montana is also a poor example. He also only played in 5 games his first year in Tampa. His second year in Tampa he also ran for 425 yards and 5 TD's in addition to his passing. After that he sat behind Montana and played in spot duty..
I’ll agree Young isn’t necessarily a perfect fit to my analysis, but I added him more as an example of how changing organizations can vastly improve a player’s performance.
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  #42  
Old 10-20-2020, 08:54 AM
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Darnold is 3 years into the NFL. If he's not developed by now, then he's not going to. He sucks. You can blame the jets if you want, but good players will become good players despite a bad organization. He isn't any better now than when he was a rookie.
He's 24 and has played for a team that has given him almost no help. Several hall of fame QBs didn't have their first good season as a pro until their age 25 season. I'm not saying Darnold will figure it out, but it's also not as impossible as you're making it out to be.
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  #43  
Old 10-20-2020, 09:10 AM
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Yes, this is still year 3 for Darnold. He's currently on pace for 12 TD's and 16 INT's for this year.

Multiple mocks have the Colts taking Trey Lance in the draft. I would rather use a draft pick on him than give up a high pick for Darnold.

Either way, we'll see what Ballard does soon.
I don't see Ballard and Reich staking their careers on Trey Lance. He has an NFL arm but he's too inconsistent. Looks like he'd also have the problem Baker Mayfield has where he's not good if you force him to be a pocket passer.

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This was the post that started this thread. Darnold would be a risk, but IMO, if this is what it took to get him, it's a risk worth taking.
That seems like a good risk, but it would depend on how the FO feels about him now, as well as how they felt about him coming out of college.
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  #44  
Old 10-20-2020, 01:52 PM
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I'm not fudging, I clearly stated 3rd year starting, because the experience starting is what is important. I showed their 3rd year starting. This is Darnold's 3rd year starting. It's on equal footing.

Moon did develop late. He's one of the rare cases. I certainly wouldn't give up high draft picks on the hopes that Darnold is another case where he beats the statistical odds against that happening. If we do and he ends up being a shitty QB for us for several years, then it's going to suck continuing down that path of QB hell.
Steve Young was a late bloomer also I believe.
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  #45  
Old 10-20-2020, 02:01 PM
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Yes, this is still year 3 for Darnold. He's currently on pace for 12 TD's and 16 INT's for this year.

Multiple mocks have the Colts taking Trey Lance in the draft. I would rather use a draft pick on him than give up a high pick for Darnold.

Either way, we'll see what Ballard does soon.
I’m not a huge fan of Lance. His accuracy isn’t great and that is usually a good barometer for nfl success. I think Dodd’s got caught scouting him. So that is why he is on everyone’s radar. Still Reich coached Wentz and might like the coaching from that school and that kind of QB.
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  #46  
Old 10-20-2020, 06:06 PM
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I’m not a huge fan of Lance. His accuracy isn’t great and that is usually a good barometer for nfl success. I think Dodd’s got caught scouting him. So that is why he is on everyone’s radar. Still Reich coached Wentz and might like the coaching from that school and that kind of QB.
I like the kid out of Florida, Kyle Trask.
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  #47  
Old 10-21-2020, 02:00 PM
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I like the kid out of Florida, Kyle Trask.
He started out hot but has come back to earth. His decision making is questionable. I like Jamie Newman if I had to pick an SEC QB. Would like to see where he is at the end of the year. Mac Jones has been rising also.

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  #48  
Old 10-21-2020, 03:00 PM
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I’m not a huge fan of Lance. His accuracy isn’t great and that is usually a good barometer for nfl success. I think Dodd’s got caught scouting him. So that is why he is on everyone’s radar. Still Reich coached Wentz and might like the coaching from that school and that kind of QB.
Do you have an example of a game that illustrates this? Because my biggest issues with him are his quickness to give up on passing and his general reading of defenses (he sometimes misses wide open looks). But I've generally seen an NFL arm with good ball placement in his film.
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  #49  
Old 10-21-2020, 05:48 PM
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He started out hot but has come back to earth. His decision making is questionable. I like Jamie Newman if I had to pick an SEC QB. Would like to see where he is at the end of the year. Mac Jones has been rising also.
I too. like Jaime Newman. Maybe his draft stock will drop due to skipping the season
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  #50  
Old 10-21-2020, 08:54 PM
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Do you have an example of a game that illustrates this? Because my biggest issues with him are his quickness to give up on passing and his general reading of defenses (he sometimes misses wide open looks). But I've generally seen an NFL arm with good ball placement in his film.
So Lance will be pretty dependent on his pro day and combine. But he is such an athlete that those should be in his favor.

But my concern is his accuracy and I’m going off the pff metric explained here: QB accuracy metric explained. I think it is a better evaluation tool than just attempts / completions which really doesn’t tell the whole story. Using that metric his completion is 50% which doesn’t project well to the NFL where you need to be very accurate. Burrow last year posted the highest accuracy rating they have had since they started using this, which is partly why I was so bullish on him. Then the one game he played this season he was only at 28% which wasn’t the best debut. I don’t like using one game as a measure but it’s all we have to go on.

He certainly has the arm strength and his running will be a definite asset. Defenses have a lot of trouble with QBs of his type. But I wanted 60% accuracy from him, that is usually the break point. And I just haven’t seen it yet.
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