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  #71  
Old 03-16-2020, 11:15 AM
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Mike Garafolo‏Verified account @MikeGarafolo

The NFL will proceed with its Draft on Apr 23-25 but will canceled public events in Las Vegas. The league is exploring innovative ways for how the process will be conducted.

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  #72  
Old 03-16-2020, 11:15 AM
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So this is an interesting mock draft and might challenge conventional wisdom. This is a mock where they emphasize the passing game and the components that influence it.

Analytics mock draft

So there are some concepts behind this draft that they have taken from the league analytics:

On defense
  • DT's and offensive interior linemen are devalued so you see a guy like Derrick Brown fall hard.
  • Only 34 DT's played at least 600 snaps last year. Defenses average about 1000 snaps. That means 1 guy per team is playing 60% of the snaps on the interior.
  • At 300+ lbs guys just can't stay fresh on the interior, so you are not playing every snap. so you are not providing value.
  • Rushing from the interior is very hard, you face double teams, it is easier to scheme a player out. Only a few guys like Fletcher Cox, Arron Donald, Chris Jones kind of defy that rule. Does Kinlaw fit into that group?
  • You get more value drafting an edge player because they are on the field more, so more attempts. On passing downs you might be better off just playing four edge players.
  • Derrick Brown hasn't shown the measurables for a dominant pass rushing DT, he would be more valuable a decade ago as a run stopper who is ok at pass rushing.
  • Quinnen Williams had one of the most dominant college seasons at DT ever, he was very average last year. (Given rookie DT's rarely blow up)
  • In 2018 the Bucs took Vita Vea and the Skins took Daron Payne over Derwin James. Derwin James has had a much greater impact.
  • Even edge high picked edge players are not going to change the complextion of the team. The team goes as the QB goes. Case in point is the Browns, Myles Garrett is great, but the team only does well if Mayfield does well.

On offense
  • Quarterbacks are very valuable, especially QB's that are accurate with quick decision making. Sorry Jalen Hurts, not your stengths.
  • WR's are very valuable because they directly affect the passing game.
  • WR's that can get open on their own are the most valuable of those WR's.
  • The Colts had the 2nd worst receiving group last year.
  • The OT's that are most valuable are the ones with a positive win rate in the passing game.
  • Notice offensive line is devalued somewhat. That is because you can scheme around defiencies on the offensive. Example is the pats who went from Trent Brown to Isiah Winn and it wasn't a huge problem. They have had good lines and bad lines. What their success is tied to is whether their WR's can get open. They had a bad receiving group in 2019. But in the 2018 AFC title game the Chiefs came in with the best defensive pass rush in the league, but the pats beat it by just throwing quick and short. They were able to do it because their outside players could get open under 2.5 seconds.
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  #73  
Old 03-16-2020, 12:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chromeburn View Post
So this is an interesting mock draft and might challenge conventional wisdom. This is a mock where they emphasize the passing game and the components that influence it.

Analytics mock draft
You know this board hates PFF, right?
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  #74  
Old 03-16-2020, 01:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ironshaft View Post
You know this board hates PFF, right?
Well I'm new here.
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