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#21
01-20-2024, 11:35 AM
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Current 2024 Players by Position: QB: Anthony Richardson, Sam Ehlinger RB: Jonathan Taylor, Evan Hull, Tyler Goodson WR: Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, Ashton Dulin, DJ Montgomery, Tyler Cleveland, Ethan Fernes, Zavier Scott, Terrell Bynum TE: Mo Alie-Cox, Jelani Woods, Kylen Granson, Andrew Ogletree, Will Mallory, Eric Tomlinson, Jordan Murray OT: Braden Smith, Bernhard Raimann, Blake Freeland, Jake Witt, Arlington Hambright, Lewis Kidd OG: Quenton Nelson, Will Fries, Josh Sills OC: Ryan Kelly, Wesley French DT: DeForest Buckner, Eric Johnson, Adetomiwa Abedawore DE: Samson Ebukam, Kwitty Paye, Dayo Odeyingbo, Titus Lee LB: Zaire Franklin, E.J. Speed, Segun Olubi, Grant Stuard, Cameron McGrone, Isaiah Land, Austin Ajieke, Liam Anderson Saf: Rodney Thomas, Nick Cross, Daniel Scott, Trevor Denbow, Kendell Brooks, Marcel Dabo, Michael Tutsie CB: Julius Brents, Dallis Flowers, Jaylon Jones, Darrell Baker Jr., Chris Lammons, Ameer Speed LS: Luke Rhodes PK: Matt Gay P: First, let's assess. The roster is thin at RB, WR, OG, DT, DE, S, CB, and P. I feel that there are internal solutions at WR, DT, S, CB, and P by resigning our impending Free Agents. Let's look at that category, as it will be the first phase of the offseason: Phase 1: Retention of 2024 Team Free Agents Significant 2024 Colts Unrestricted Free Agents: Starters: WR Michael Pittman Jr NT Grover Stewart CB Kenny Moore S Julian Blackmon P Rigoberto Sanchez Important Depth: QB Gardner Minshew RB Zack Moss OG Danny Pinter DE Tyquan Lewis DT Taven Bryan First, we need to address the elephant in the room. Michael Pittman Jr. is a #1 WR, and a top 15 WR in the NFL, he needs to be retained and he needs to be paid as such. I would use the franchise tag to ensure another team can't do it. While this would make his cap hit $21.665 million, I would aim to use the tag to extend him. I think the following deal would get the job done: 5 year $115 million extension with $65 million in guarantees Year 1: $14 million salary (fully guaranteed), $5 million pro rated signing bonus, $19 million cap hit Year 2: $16 million salary (fully guaranteed), $5 million pro rated signing bonus, $21 million cap hit Year 3: $16 million salary, $5 million roster bonus, $5 million pro rated signing bonus, $26 million cap hit Year 4: $16 million salary, $5 million roster bonus, $5 million pro rated signing bonus, $26 million cap hit Year 5: $18 million salary, $5 million pro rated signing bonus, $23 million cap hit I based this deal on the A.J. Brown deal, adding a year while taking a bit off the AAV. This allows the Colts to retain a key target for their young QB without eating nearly half of their cap space this year. Remaining usable cap space: $34.427 million Next, I think it's crucial to bring back Grover Stewart. He's key to the team's run defense, and his absence was felt in the 6 games he missed. I think the below is in line with the market while giving him a small raise: 3 year $33 million extension with $18 million in guarantees Year 1: $6 million salary (fully guaranteed), $3 million pro rated signing bonus, $9 million cap hit Year 2: $8 million salary, $3 million pro rated signing bonus, $11 million cap hit Year 3: $7 million salary, $3 million roster bonus, $3 million pro rated signing bonus, $13 million cap hit This is in line with last year's market, with a small increase from his previous contract that also reflects a small increase to the market due to increased cap space. Hopefully the Colts will search for and find their next NT in the first two years of the contract. Remaining Usable Cap Space: $25.427 million Next up, Kenny Moore II, who had a lot of ups and downs on his last contract, but is basically the only slot CB on the team. I think the following would be a fair deal: 3 year $27 million extension with $15 million in guarantees Year 1: $4 million salary (fully guaranteed), $3 million pro rated signing bonus, $7 million cap hit Year 2: $6 million salary, $3 million pro rated signing bonus, $9 million cap hit Year 3: $6 million salary, $2 million roster bonus, $3 million pro rated signing bonus, $11 million cap hit The AAV is slightly higher than the Byron Murphy deal from last year with an extra year as well. It would be ideal to find a good slot defender in the first two years of this contract. Remaining Usable Cap Space: $18.427 million Up next, Julian Blackmon, who I believe was a high quality starter for the defense, and his absence may have cost the Colts a playoff spot this year. Here's what I think would work: 4 year $32 million extension with $16 million in guarantees Year 1: $4 million salary (fully guaranteed), $2 million pro rated signing bonus, $6 million cap hit Year 2: $6 million salary ($2 million guaranteed), $2 million pro rated signing bonus, $8 million cap hit Year 3: $6 million salary, $2 million pro rated signing bonus, $8 million cap hit Year 4: $6 million salary, $2 million roster bonus, $2 million pro rated signing bonus, $10 million cap hit This is a higher AAV than any safety other than Jessie Bates got in free agency last year. It also keeps a solid starter on the roster for at least the next 3 seasons. Remaining Usable Cap Space: $12.427 million Next is Rigo. I think he's worth near top end of the Punter market money, as follows: 4 year $12 million extension with $6 million in guarantees Year 1: $1 million salary (fully guaranteed), $1 million pro rated signing bonus, $2 million cap hit Year 2: $2 million salary, $1 million pro rated signing bonus, $3 million cap hit Year 3: $2 million salary, $1 million pro rated signing bonus, $3 million cap hit Year 4: $2 million salary, $1 million roster bonus, $1 million pro rated signing bonus, $4 million cap hit Michael Dickson has the richest punter contract in NFL history and it has just over $3.6 million AAV. I think that makes the above a fair deal. Remaining Usable Cap Space: $10.427 million Finally, I think the Colts could do worse for a backup QB than Gardner Minshew, and I think he deserves to be rewarded for above average play for a backup QB. I think the following is more than fair: 2 year $10 million extension with $5 million in guarantees Year 1: $1 million salary (fully guaranteed), $2 million pro rated signing bonus, $3 million cap hit Year 2: $5 million salary, $2 million pro rated signing bonus, $7 million cap hit This is effectively a 1/$5 deal with a second 1/$5 option. Leaving that much unguaranteed salary in year 2 also gives the Colts the option to extend the deal for another year or 2 while bringing the cap hit down should they choose to keep him longer. This is pretty close to top end of the backup market, and I don't think he'd find more elsewhere. Remaining Usable Cap Space: $7.427 million I also liked Ronnie Harrison Jr. as a LB, and would be willing to bring him back on a veteran minimum contract of $1.08 million for 1 year. Remaining Usable Cap Space: $6.347 million Why I chose not to retain the other listed free agents: Zack Moss is going to get high end RB2/low end RB1 money on the market, the Colts can't afford to pay him that. Danny Pinter only ever played quality minutes for the Colts at Center and had to be replaced at Guard mid-season when he was penciled in by the coaching staff as the starter at the position. When Pinter lost the backup OC job to Wesley French, he lost all value IMO. Tyquan Lewis and Taven Bryan are good rotational players that will likely want too much money to come back in the same roles. In Lewis's case, I plan to massively upgrade the DE position, while in Bryan's case, my hope would be that Adebawore could step into his role. After retaining free agents, the roster is as follows (bold indicates an added player): QB: Anthony Richardson, Gardner Minshew, Sam Ehlinger RB: Jonathan Taylor, Evan Hull, Tyler Goodson WR: Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, Ashton Dulin, DJ Montgomery, Tyler Cleveland, Ethan Fernes, Zavier Scott, Terrell Bynum TE: Mo Alie-Cox, Jelani Woods, Kylen Granson, Andrew Ogletree, Will Mallory, Eric Tomlinson, Jordan Murray OT: Braden Smith, Bernhard Raimann, Blake Freeland, Jake Witt, Arlington Hambright, Lewis Kidd OG: Quenton Nelson, Will Fries, Josh Sills OC: Ryan Kelly, Wesley French DT: DeForest Buckner, Grover Stewart, Eric Johnson, Adetomiwa Abedawore DE: Samson Ebukam, Kwity Paye, Dayo Odeyingbo, Titus Lee LB: Zaire Franklin, E.J. Speed, Ronnie Harrison Jr., Segun Olubi, Grant Stuard, Cameron McGrone, Isaiah Land, Austin Ajieke, Liam Anderson Saf: Julian Blackmon, Rodney Thomas, Nick Cross, Daniel Scott, Trevor Denbow, Kendell Brooks, Marcel Dabo, Michael Tutsie CB: Julius Brents, Kenny Moore II, Dallis Flowers, Jaylon Jones, Darrell Baker Jr., Chris Lammons, Ameer Speed LS: Luke Rhodes PK: Matt Gay P: Rigoberto Sanchez Next, we need to create some cap space. I plan to make a splash Free Agency signing, so just under $6.4 million will not be enough. Looking at the list borrowed from above: Phase 2: Cap Management and External Free Agency Ten Biggest Cap Savings if Cut: $20.250m = DT Deforest Buckner $12.375m = OC Ryan Kelly $10.683m = OT Braden Smith $05.920m = TE Mo Allie-Cox $03.500m = LB E.J. Speed $03.360m = LB Zaire Franklin $03.010m = WR Ashton Dulin $02.251m = DE Kwitty Paye $01.735m = DE Samson Ebkukam $01.500m = DE Dayo Odeyingbo I see one obvious cap casualty, and that is Mo Alie-Cox. I am cutting him for the cap savings. Remaining Usable Cap Space: $12.267 million This is still not enough space to sign the free agent I am looking to sign, so while I'm not cutting anyone else, there are 3 very obvious candidates for restructure: DeForest Buckner, Ryan Kelly, and Braden Smith. Because Buckner is an elite player, I want to keep him as a fixture in the Colts defense for the next several seasons, I don't want to deal with potentially having to tag him next year, and he probably can provide all of the cap savings I need in one restructure, I'm looking at him first. 3 year, $72 million deal with $48 million in guarantees Year 1 (2024): $2 million salary (fully guaranteed), $10 million pro rated signing bonus, $12 million cap hit Year 2 (2025): $15 million salary ($12 million guaranteed), $10 million pro rated signing bonus, $25 million cap hit Year 3 (2026): $21 million salary, $4 million roster bonus, $10 million pro rated signing bonus, $35 million cap hit This puts nearly $10 million more in Buckner's pocket this year while saving $10.75 million in cap space. Obviously, Year 3 will necessitate a restructure or cut, hopefully restructure. Remaining Usable Cap Space: $23.017 million With my newly acquired cap space, I am going to purchase the Colts the elite pass rusher they have been lacking since Robert Mathis left the team: Sign DE Danielle Hunter 4 year $100 million deal with $60 million in guarantees Year 1: $15 million salary (fully guaranteed), $6 million pro rated signing bonus, $21 million cap hit Year 2: $15 million salary (fully guaranteed), $6 million pro rated signing bonus, $21 million cap hit Year 3: $20 million salary, $6 million pro rated signing bonus, $26 million cap hit Year 4: $20 million salary, $6 million roster bonus, $6 million pro rated signing bonus, $32 million cap hit This is more or less a 2 year $54 million deal that the Colts can choose to jettison after Year 3 if he is not performing or restructure if he is. Hunter has been an elite pass rusher for years and has come back strong from a 2021 injury, posting 27 sacks over the last 2 seasons with a league leading 23 TFL in 2023. Putting Hunter and Buckner on the same defensive line takes the unit from good to elite. I feel this move also fits with Ballard's history, as DE is the position he's addressed most often and best in free agency. He's never made a splash like this, but this is intended to be a win now move that signals confidence in the current team is ready to take the step into contention. Remaining Usable Cap Space: $2.017 million With that, the pre-draft roster is set. Based on the above moves, I would view the Colts draft needs as follows: Phase 3: 2024 NFL Draft Team Needs Pre-2024 NFL Draft 1. CB (Slot)* 2. DE (Elite Pass Rusher)* 3. TE 4. RB 5. DT (depth/future starter) 6. OC (depth/future starter) 7. OG (depth) 8. QB (backup more similar to Richardson) *NOTE: If not addressed in Free Agency, DE (Elite Pass Rusher) becomes the team's top need. Colts picks in 2024 NFL draft:** Round 1 Pick 15 Round 2 Pick 46 Round 3 Pick 82 Round 4 Pick 118 Round 5 Pick 150 Round 6 Pick 193 Round 7 Pick 232 **This is the most accurate information I can find as of the time of making this post. I will update as more accurate information becomes available. Round 1 Pick 15: DE Laiatu Latu UCLA With a Top 15 pick, I believe the focus should be on getting an elite player to add to your team. The words "Game Wrecker" come to mind when you put on Latu's film. Latu has excellent burst off the edge and a variety of pass rush moves that allow him to bend the edge on tackles. He is often doubled, but regularly defeats double teams and creates pressure on the QB. Adding a pass rusher of his caliber to what is now an already stacked DL will force opposing offenses to get the ball out quickly. Alternate Selections: DE Jared Verse, WR Malik Nabers, TE Brock Bowers, CB Terrion Arnold Round 2 Pick 46: CB T.J. Tampa Iowa State The Colts front office has shown a penchant recently for liking their CBs tall, long, fast, athletic, good in zone, and physical. T.J. Tampa checks all of those boxes and will provide another option at both the slot and boundary CB positions. Alternate Selections: DT Kris Jenkins, TE Ja'Tavion Sanders, DE Adisa Isaac, DE Jonah Elliss, WR Malachi Corley Round 3 Pick 82: CB Khyree Jackson Oregon Doubling up at CB on Day 2, Jackson is another CB that fits the profile of what the Colts seem to be looking for at the position. Big, physical, and fast, Jackson primarily provides more competition for the starting boundary CB position. With this selection, the Colts have Julian Brents, Jaylon Jones, T.J. Tampa, and Khyree Jackson from which to pull two starting boundary CBs. Alternate Selections: DT Maason Smith, LB Payton Wilson, OG Christian Haynes Round 4 Pick 118: S Cole Bishop Utah Another big, fast DB, Bishop is not as long as the Colts typically like, but makes up for it with his speed and explosiveness. Bishop also gives Gus Bradley a Kam Chancellor type enforcer option, or could bulk up and become a LB. The versatility and special teams value are the primary reasons for the pick here. Alternate Selections: DE Mohamed Kamara, WR Javon Baker Round 5 Pick 150: DT Khristian Boyd Northern Iowa Rarely does a 320 pound DT move the way Boyd can move on film. He has tape of chasedown tackles on quite a few RBs. He also holds up very well against a double team and provides some pass rush value as demonstrated in his very good Shrine Bowl week. The Colts could have him lose weight and become a developmental 3 tech, but with Adebawore already on the roster, I think the smart play is to groom Boyd to eventually take over for 30 year old Grover Stewart. Round 6 Pick 193: RB Issac Guerendo Louisville Jonathan Taylor's collegiate backup becomes Jonathan Taylor's NFL backup. Guerendo possesses a great blend of size, speed, and power, and has demonstrated value as both a receiver and blocker in limited playing time. Guerendo will have tremendous upside as a RB2 who can provide RB1 quality snaps on a limited basis. Round 7 Pick 232: OG Karsen Barnhart Michigan This selection is about one thing: positional versatility. Barnhart instantly slots in as the top backup OG, and could easily challenge Will Fries for the starting RG position, but in addition, Barnhart has experience at all 5 OL positions in college. He may not be used or listed at center or tackle, but in an emergency, he could play there, though maybe not super effectively at the NFL level. Having versatile backups is a way to more easily survive having less than 10 OL on your roster. 2024 Preseason Roster (bold indicates added player) QB: Anthony Richardson, Gardner Minshew, Sam Ehlinger RB: Jonathan Taylor, Issac Guerendo, Evan Hull, Tyler Goodson WR: Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, Ashton Dulin, DJ Montgomery, Tyler Cleveland, Ethan Fernes, Zavier Scott, Terrell Bynum TE: Jelani Woods, Kylen Granson, Andrew Ogletree, Will Mallory, Eric Tomlinson, Jordan Murray OT: Braden Smith, Bernhard Raimann, Blake Freeland, Jake Witt, Arlington Hambright, Lewis Kidd OG: Quenton Nelson, Will Fries, Karsen Barnhart, Josh Sills OC: Ryan Kelly, Wesley French DT: DeForest Buckner, Grover Stewart, Eric Johnson, Adetomiwa Abedawore DE: Danielle Hunter, Laiatu Latu, Samson Ebukam, Kwity Paye, Dayo Odeyingbo, Titus Lee LB: Zaire Franklin, E.J. Speed, Ronnie Harrison Jr., Segun Olubi, Grant Stuard, Cameron McGrone, Isaiah Land, Austin Ajieke, Liam Anderson Saf: Julian Blackmon, Rodney Thomas, Nick Cross, Cole Bishop, Daniel Scott, Trevor Denbow, Kendell Brooks, Marcel Dabo, Michael Tutsie CB: Julius Brents, Kenny Moore II, T.J. Tampa, Dallis Flowers, Jaylon Jones, Khyree Jackson, Darrell Baker Jr., Chris Lammons, Ameer Speed LS: Luke Rhodes PK: Matt Gay P: Rigoberto Sanchez UPDATE: The actual NFL cap increased to $255.4 million, while an estimate of $242.5 million was used above, resulting in an extra $12.9 million of cap space. Per Over The Cap, only $4.205 million of additional cap space is needed to sign our rookies, leaving: Remaining Usable Cap Space: $10.713 million
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Last edited by Dam8610; 03-04-2024 at 09:25 PM. 
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#22
01-20-2024, 12:58 PM
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I like your approach Dam, however there is no way in hell we can roll with those same guys at CB next year. So if you’re signing Hunter you gotta go CB with that first pick.
I want Pittman back for sure just don’t know if Shane would feel like he’s worth 100 million when you could use that money on chase young or Josh Allen
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#23
01-20-2024, 01:13 PM
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Racehorse (01-20-2024) | ||
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#24
01-20-2024, 02:11 PM
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Pre-season, no. Only the top 51 cap hits count. The NFL does this so that teams have more flexibility to potentially bring in journeyman free agents during the 90-man phase of the season in order to find the best players. Obviously, that only counts during pre-season and once you do the cut down to the 53 man roster, all the rest of the expenses kick in (spots 52 and 53 and practice squad projections).
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#25
01-21-2024, 11:58 AM
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I like just about everything you posted Dam. Couple of comments to add to the discussion:
- Hunter might not be available as I would think Minny will do all they can to re-sign him. They don't have a ton of cap space, but they do have some at ~$26M. Per OTC Hunter will count ~$15M in dead cap space when his contract voids in March, which is included in the Vikes' current cap number. I'm not 100% sure, but I believe that goes away if he signs an extension before his contract voids (I'm sure Ironshaft can clarify). So this gives them extra incentive to get a deal done before FA begins. On a side note Kirk Cousins is a similar situation only he's ~$28.5M in dead cap space. - Latu has a scary medical history. Not saying that this should exclude us from drafting him; just something that could factor into the decision. I'm sure it'll be a big talking point in the lead up to the draft. - If we can sign Lewis to a similar deal to his '23 contract ($2.6M cap hit) then I'd like to see him re-signed. If he can get more elsewhere then agree that it's best to let him go. - As far as I can tell Ironshaft didn't include the draft class in his base cap number, so under your plan you'd have to make a little bit of room for the draft class. Only ~$1M based on '23 cap hits for the draft slots where we're picking and that our bottom end guys are at $900K cap hits. - This would put us right up against the cap, which we all know Ballard isn't going to be comfortable doing 
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#26
01-21-2024, 05:02 PM
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#27
02-03-2024, 12:08 PM
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Speaking of Dayo, it might make sense to extend him now if we can make room and he's willing to do it. If he continues to improve next year then he's probably going to get pretty pricey. Quote:
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#28
02-24-2024, 09:17 AM
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Looks like we have $13M additional cap dollars, but so do all the other teams. I guess we can now re-sign our own quality players AND add a good veteran or two.
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Keep your political crap out of a football forum! Nobody here gives a rat's a**
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#29
02-24-2024, 11:27 AM
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Dam, all your contracts are massively backloaded, that seems worrying if the cap doesn’t increase accordingly. It would give a 2 year window to win and then you have to start releasing, trading or restructuring these guys.
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#30
02-24-2024, 11:30 AM
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Where is Trey Sermon?
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Linear Mode
