Colts Re-Sign Blackmon

[ukcolt]

For me the time is maybe this year, but more probably next year. If we aren't deep into the thick of the post season after next season, then as much as I like Ballard he should be seriously questioned, lots already are.

But i am hopefully that the roster that almost got to the playoffs last year with a limited back up QB, should make a bigger impact this year. Development of players, continuity of play, can often trump new splash signings.

The number of splash signings that teams have made over the past 20 years where they have totally flamed out after getting the big pay cheque is very high.

[rm1369]

Originally Posted by Racehorse

I think Irsay and Ballard saw our window as open when they tried to get a veteran QB to replace Luck, but they all, except Rivers, washed out. When that failed, they decided to hit the restart button. Our window is cracked, but not totally open right now. If AR is the guy, and stays healthy, then it will be wide open.

That hits squarely on my main complaint with Ballard and his most loyal followers. Nothing the team did besides signing Rivers indicates that the team thought they had a window. Nothing. Besides signing Rivers it was business as usual for Ballard - focus on the draft and future development. When I point this out to his most vocal supporters I’m typically told they wanted to wait and see what they had with Rivers before going all in and then Rivers retired. A similar argument happens when I point out the lack of “going for it” with Ryan. Same with Wentz. Hell, I started my criticism of Ballard because I felt he was content wasting prime Luck years with his stated slow steady build approach. The reality is that it doesn’t matter where the team is with QB, Ballard’s method is Ballard’s method. He is not looking at and pushing for windows. That’s my main criticism of him - he has never tailored his approach to the state of the roster. That goes for winning or bottoming out. Ballard selected AR, but without Irsay’s intervention AR likely isn’t on this team. Every off season for Ballard is the same as the one before and the one after. I think that’s a losing approach. So far I’ve mostly been right.

To me AR is the guy at this point regardless. There is no reason to wait and see. If he proves to be the guy this season then you’ve wasted a season of your short window trying to verify. If he isn’t then what’s it matter? We’ve already saw how many years it takes to find even a possible guy at QB so the roster is going to look significantly different by the time they get back to the next window. You might as well support AR to the max during the next 3 years and help him become the guy before the coming huge cap hit for his extension. Then you start a new window with a different looking team.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by rm1369

That hits squarely on my main complaint with Ballard and his most loyal followers. Nothing the team did besides signing Rivers indicates that the team thought they had a window. Nothing. Besides signing Rivers it was business as usual for Ballard - focus on the draft and future development. When I point this out to his most vocal supporters I’m typically told they wanted to wait and see what they had with Rivers before going all in and then Rivers retired. A similar argument happens when I point out the lack of “going for it” with Ryan. Same with Wentz. Hell, I started my criticism of Ballard because I felt he was content wasting prime Luck years with his stated slow steady build approach. The reality is that it doesn’t matter where the team is with QB, Ballard’s method is Ballard’s method. He is not looking at and pushing for windows. That’s my main criticism of him - he has never tailed his approach to the state of the roster. That goes for winning or bottoming out. Ballard selected AR, but without Irsay’s intervention AR likely isn’t on this team. Every off season for Ballard is the same as the one before and the one after. I think that’s a losing approach. So far I’ve mostly been right.

To me AR is the guy at this point regardless. There is no reason to wait and see. If he proves to be the guy this season then you’ve wasted a season of your short window trying to verify. If he isn’t then what’s it matter? We’ve already saw how many years it takes to find even a possible guy at QB so the roster is going to look significantly different by the time they get back to the next window. You might as well support AR to the max during the next 3 years and help him become the guy before the coming huge cap hit for his extension. Then you start a new window with a different looking team.

You think Ballard traded a 1 for Carson Wentz for funsies? No, he did it with the hope that Reich could turn him into a franchise QB, which was a reasonable assumption at the time since Wentz had had an MVP caliber season under Reich. So many people talk about Ballard "not taking swings", and they completely forget his swings, like Wentz and Buckner, both of which were trades that involved significant draft capital going to other teams.

[ChaosTheory]

Originally Posted by rm1369

That hits squarely on my main complaint with Ballard and his most loyal followers. Nothing the team did besides signing Rivers indicates that the team thought they had a window. Nothing. Besides signing Rivers it was business as usual for Ballard - focus on the draft and future development. When I point this out to his most vocal supporters I’m typically told they wanted to wait and see what they had with Rivers before going all in and then Rivers retired. A similar argument happens when I point out the lack of “going for it” with Ryan. Same with Wentz. Hell, I started my criticism of Ballard because I felt he was content wasting prime Luck years with his stated slow steady build approach. The reality is that it doesn’t matter where the team is with QB, Ballard’s method is Ballard’s method. He is not looking at and pushing for windows. That’s my main criticism of him - he has never tailed his approach to the state of the roster. That goes for winning or bottoming out. Ballard selected AR, but without Irsay’s intervention AR likely isn’t on this team. Every off season for Ballard is the same as the one before and the one after. I think that’s a losing approach. So far I’ve mostly been right.

To me AR is the guy at this point regardless. There is no reason to wait and see. If he proves to be the guy this season then you’ve wasted a season of your short window trying to verify. If he isn’t then what’s it matter? We’ve already saw how many years it takes to find even a possible guy at QB so the roster is going to look significantly different by the time they get back to the next window. You might as well support AR to the max during the next 3 years and help him become the guy before the coming huge cap hit for his extension. Then you start a new window with a different looking team.

It's a flawed premise. It presumes that doling out $200m+ for some of our best players is not a win-now move. Those guys will continue to help us AND not help our competition by signing with another team.

It also presumes that giving up assets to poach one of another team's premier players is required. Or even that signing the top FA is required.

It's not. But even in the case of the latter... Hunter was arguably, what, a top-3 FA? Ballard apparently outbid the competition for him. Dude chose to go back to his hometown, what can you do? Ultimately, though, we didn't get him, so that translates to Ballard kicking the can down the road.

[sherck]

Originally Posted by rm1369

I’m curious when will be the Colts time?

If Anthony Richardson develops, from his second season of being a full-time starter until about his 10th to 12th season as a full time starter.

This league starts, and finishes, with an elite QB. If you have one, you are in the window. If you don't, you are not.

Our roster is well built to complement an elite QB. But we don't have one....yet.

[rm1369]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

You think Ballard traded a 1 for Carson Wentz for funsies? No, he did it with the hope that Reich could turn him into a franchise QB, which was a reasonable assumption at the time since Wentz had had an MVP caliber season under Reich. So many people talk about Ballard "not taking swings", and they completely forget his swings, like Wentz and Buckner, both of which were trades that involved significant draft capital going to other teams.

We can debate the risk in those moves, but I just don’t see how they are relevant to my point. Show me where Ballard has managed the roster to “win now”. That’s the discussion. I contend Ballard doesn’t view things that way and I believe regardless of ARs development he will continue managing the roster as he always has. If you see evidence to the contrary please provide it. The same year he traded for Wentz he had a roster that had no DE on the team with double digit sacks. Total. For their career. So the team certainly didn’t enter win now mode because he acquired Wentz.

[rm1369]

Originally Posted by ChaosTheory

It's a flawed premise. It presumes that doling out $200m+ for some of our best players is not a win-now move. Those guys will continue to help us AND not help our competition by signing with another team.

It also presumes that giving up assets to poach one of another team's premier players is required. Or even that signing the top FA is required.

It's not. But even in the case of the latter... Hunter was arguably, what, a top-3 FA? Ballard apparently outbid the competition for him. Dude chose to go back to his hometown, what can you do? Ultimately, though, we didn't get him, so that translates to Ballard kicking the can down the road.

Show me where Ballard has made moves to indicate he believes the teams window is open at any point in his tenure. I don’t believe he see things in windows which is my point and a big issue I have with him. The roster is largely managed the same regardless of what state it is. I contend that’s a mistake. You are pointing out arguments that are irrelevant. If you don’t believe teams should work in windows and tailor their moves to their situation then fine, say that. That’s a different discussion. Otherwise tell me how I’m wrong and show me the obvious difference in roster management from when Ballard is in win now mode to when he is in rebuild mode.

[rm1369]

Originally Posted by sherck

If Anthony Richardson develops, from his second season of being a full-time starter until about his 10th to 12th season as a full time starter.

This league starts, and finishes, with an elite QB. If you have one, you are in the window. If you don't, you are not.

Our roster is well built to complement an elite QB. But we don't have one....yet.

I don’t disagree on the value of an elite QB. So my argument would be that the moves for Rivers and Ryan were kicking the can down the road. Either you thought they were elite and you should have managed the rest of the roster accordingly. Or you shouldn’t have acquired them, started an Ehlinger level guy and acquired the picks necessary to find your guy. Instead Ballard went middle of the road and did neither. I do concede that Wentz was young enough that a one year prove it season was a viable option. It wasn’t for Rivers or Ryan though. Their age said either go for it or stay away.

I guess my question is if AR develops, do you expect different roster management from Ballard next year? And because of how important QB is, what’s the plan if he doesn’t develop? The team isn’t competing. Aren’t we just back on the same mediocre path we’d been on until Irsay got involved? So what then is the risk of assuming the window is open this year and getting AR more help so the pressure of carrying the team to the playoffs isn’t all on him as it is now?

[Racehorse]

Originally Posted by rm1369

We can debate the risk in those moves, but I just don’t see how they are relevant to my point. Show me where Ballard has managed the roster to “win now”. That’s the discussion. I contend Ballard doesn’t view things that way and I believe regardless of ARs development he will continue managing the roster as he always has. If you see evidence to the contrary please provide it. The same year he traded for Wentz he had a roster that had no DE on the team with double digit sacks. Total. For their career. So the team certainly didn’t enter win now mode because he acquired Wentz.

My guess is there is nothing that can happen for you to think Ballard is capable. For the rest of us, we see the possibilities that a franchise QB opens up for a team. Without one, there is no chance. We think we have found one, and the team is solid behind him. The team that was one play from the playoff with a backup quarterback essentially has added a starting QB, a solid DLineman, and a solid backup QB, all while retaining the key free agents we had. This draft, plus whatever future additions Ballard makes before the start of the season should make us one of the top 4-7 teams in the conference.

One could argue that KC is miles ahead of the others, but Buffalo took a step back, and only HOU and BALT have any additions that look to benefit their teams. Maybe JAX has improved, but the jury is still out on them. We can be in the mix for the division (despite the moves HOU made), and be one of the contenders in the AFC.

[ChaosTheory]

Originally Posted by rm1369

Show me where Ballard has made moves to indicate he believes the teams window is open at any point in his tenure. I don’t believe he see things in windows which is my point and a big issue I have with him. The roster is largely managed the same regardless of what state it is. I contend that’s a mistake. You are pointing out arguments that are irrelevant. If you don’t believe teams should work in windows and tailor their moves to their situation then fine, say that. That’s a different discussion. Otherwise tell me how I’m wrong and show me the obvious difference in roster management from when Ballard is in win now mode to when he is in rebuild mode.

I told you, it's a flawed premise. I can never show you where Ballard made moves to indicate he believes the team's window is open... because you don't believe any of Ballard's moves indicate the team's window is open.

You suppose there's this intrinsic truth that you must make FA or trade splashes with big-name players or you're not actually trying to win. So his draft-and-re-sign method is never going to look like a win-now move under that supposition.

And like Dam mentioned, moves he does make, like selling a 1st and 3rd for Wentz, don't seem to count. After the shock of Luck's retirement, '20, '21, and '22 each with a new vet-QB wasn't an attempt to win now?

We've been down the road of me asking for specifics about what Ballard could/should do differently, but all I'll hear is "not my job." And that bypasses the complicated fact that it's a zero-sum game.