Insider: 11 things to watch in Anthony Richardson's Colts debut vs. Jaguars

[JAFF]

Insider: 11 things to watch in Anthony Richardson's Colts debut vs. Jaguars

INDIANAPOLIS — The Colts have not won a season opener in a long time.

Longer than almost any team in NFL history.

Indianapolis has gone nine consecutive seasons without a win in its opener, coming closest to breaking the schneid with a furious comeback to tie the Texans in Houston a year ago.

If the Colts can’t knock off Jacksonville in a 1 p.m. Sunday kickoff at Lucas Oil Stadium, they’ll move into second place for the longest drought all-time, trailing only the Cleveland Browns, who lost 16 openers and tied one from 2005 to 2021.


But this Indianapolis opener isn’t about ending the streak, at least not the way it has been in recent years.

Anthony Richardson, the No. 4 pick in the 2023 draft, will make his debut as the Colts starting quarterback, and for the foreseeable future, Richardson’s development is, above all else, the thing to watch in Indianapolis games.

Even if it isn’t the only thing for diehard Colts fans to watch Sunday.

Aug 24, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) against the Philadelphia Eagles during the second quarter at Lincoln Financial Field.
1. Richardson’s debut is the first glimpse the NFL will get of the offense Shane Steichen has been building for his rookie quarterback, a freakish physical specimen at 6-4, 244 pounds who rushed for 654 yards in his lone season as the starter at Florida. How Steichen unleashes Richardson’s rushing ability will be interesting to watch; the new Colts coach has plenty of experience after designing Philadelphia’s dynamic scheme for Jalen Hurts, but Richardson’s size offers an added element in the ground game that Hurts doesn’t quite possess. Will Steichen lean into that power, the way Carolina used to hit defenses with a Cam Newton-sized battering ram? The opener is the first opportunity to see Steichen’s plans in action.


2. The rookie completed just 44.8% of his 29 preseason attempts, and it’s likely Indianapolis will have to live with some missed throws in Richardson’s first season. How Steichen tries to minimize those misses is the interesting piece. The Colts head coach can call a lot of short, high-percentage throws for Richardson, picking up easy completions, but Steichen’s No. 1 goal as an offensive coordinator is creating explosive plays. Expect a blend of the two approaches, but there will be some shots downfield, and second-year wide receiver Alec Pierce will likely be the most frequent target.

3. Indianapolis likes what it has seen this offseason from second-year left tackle Bernhard Raimann, who played better as a starter down the stretch last season and added 15 pounds of muscle. If Raimann can establish himself as a bona fide, starting-caliber left tackle in the NFL, the Colts offensive line should be much better than the group that gave up an NFL-worst 60 sacks in 2022. Raimann will be tested right away on Sunday; Jacksonville rushers Josh Allen and Travon Walker bring a lot of speed off the edge.


4. Raimann will likely be the focal point, but the Colts need much better play from left guard Quenton Nelson, center Ryan Kelly and right tackle Braden Smith, who all struggled to varying degrees in a lost 2022 season. If the veteran trio, the building blocks of the Indianapolis offense, can right the ship, Steichen’s offense will have a chance to be successful.

Indianapolis Colts running back Zack Moss (21) runs over obstacles Friday, July 28, 2023, during an indoor practice at Grand Park Sports Campus in Westfield, Indiana.
Who will the Colts start at running back?

5. How the Colts divvy up the snaps at running back without Jonathan Taylor available remains to be seen. Steichen has already said Indianapolis will use a committee at the position, but veteran Zack Moss was listed as questionable in his return from a broken arm suffered in training camp. If Moss is limited or held out of Sunday’s game, expect Deon Jackson to get the bulk of the carries and rookie Evan Hull to handle third-down duties, although their skill sets allow the two backs to do a little bit of each.


6. Indianapolis expects veteran Michael Pittman Jr. to be Richardson’s safety blanket at wide receiver, but the Colts are also counting on a pair of young receivers, Pierce and rookie Josh Downs, to play beyond their years. Pierce’s deep-ball connection with Richardson was spotty in training camp and ugly in the preseason, and Downs had a strong camp, but he’ll be facing an NFL secondary for the first time.

7. Jacksonville has been tabbed as the runaway favorite to win the AFC South, but if the Jaguars have an obvious potential weakness, it’s a pass defense that ranked 28th in the NFL in yards and 22nd in yards per attempt, but didn’t make any huge additions in the offseason, although they could take a big step if Walker plays more to his draft position. Richardson could have some chances to make plays through the air.

Indianapolis Colts defensive tackle DeForest Buckner (99) moves in to sack Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) on Sunday, Oct. 16, 2022, during a game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
8. Blossoming Jaguars star Trevor Lawrence was sacked just 27 times last season, in large part because he averaged just 2.59 seconds from snap to throw, the fourth-fastest time of any quarterback in the league. Playing with an inexperienced secondary, Indianapolis is expected to lean on a pass rush led by DeForest Buckner, Kwity Paye and Dayo Odeyingbo, but Lawrence’s quick-throw approach will neutralize that rush if the Colts coverage cannot do something to make him hold onto the ball a little longer than he wants.


9. Jacksonville’s biggest offseason addition was the return of former Falcons wide receiver Calvin Ridley, who was suspended for the 2022 season for violating the NFL’s gambling policy. If Ridley’s the player he was in his last full season in Atlanta — 90 catches, 1,374 yards, nine touchdowns — he’ll be a difficult test for Indianapolis starting cornerbacks Darrell Baker Jr. and Dallis Flowers, a pair of undrafted free agents in their second seasons in the NFL. Given the outside pair’s inexperience, it’s probably reasonable to expect the Jaguars to avoid veteran Colts slot cornerback Kenny Moore II as much as possible and test the newcomers with Ridley and its pair of returning stars, Christian Kirk and Zay Jones.

10. Jacksonville running back Travis Etienne broke out as a big-play threat in 2021, averaging 5.1 yards per carry on his way to 1,125 rushing yards, plus 35 catches at 9.0 yards a pop in the passing game. Indianapolis is stout up front with Paye and Samson Ebukam flanking Buckner and Grover Stewart, and it will be interesting to see how the Jaguars try to get Etienne going.


11. Shaquille Leonard’s back, and if he looks anything like the Maniac of old, the Colts’ defense should force more turnovers than it did in last season’s 19th-place finish.