Free agency success

[rm1369]

Originally Posted by HoosierinFL

Not really trying to defend any specific thing about Ballard, but at no point since Luck's retirement have we had any type of great QB play (Rivers was good not great).

I could criticize Ballard for not fixing the QB position sooner than he did - he probably should not have prolonged the suffering with all the free agent QBs and instead allowed the team to tank so he could draft one high.

Without that, there's really just no sense in trying to bring in big money big name free agents to fill the gaps, it would be a waste, because those guys aren't winning you the superbowl if you don't have the QB.

I think there is a valid criticism of how Ballard handled the QB search. Individually I understand and largely support the chances he took at QB, even though I prefer going the rookie route. But he tried to straddle the two logical options and ended up prolonging the issue. Only to be saved by Irsay’s tank job - intentional or not. Rivers and Ryan indicated win now, while he never treated the rest of the roster the same way.

Originally Posted by HoosierinFL

The question remains - is AR going to be that guy? There's kinda no point in an overly aggressive FA approach until we can see him on the field for a whole season and see what we've got, and in turn, what we don't got.

Main point: you can use FA market to get the right parts to "win now" or "win within a short window in the next few years" but only AFTER you know you have the QB to get you there.

I disagree that you should wait to see on AR. To me we are married to him for at least 2-3 more years. I see almost no scenario where we move on from him before that, short of a career ending injury. If he fails then it’s a reset on this team and a start over anyway. What do you do besides reset? Start going the Rivers / Ryan route again. Screw that. So what do you loose by saying the window is open now? It also provides max support to AR now. I don’t want to throw a shit secondary out there and train AR that he has to score every possession. I want him to learn to pick and choose his spots. And, the teams we talked about in here show that many of the moves were done a year or two before they won the SB.

Basically, if AR is who we hope there is a version of the team to be built before his extension that supports him and takes the load off. That should start now. If he isn’t that guy, then it really doesn’t matter. You are starting over and having a great salary cap position will matter little since you’ll again lean on draft picks and young guys. Guys like Buckner deserve a team trying to win now, not just once they are washed up or retired.

[Chromeburn]

Originally Posted by albany ed

I have no idea how this will play out, but I'm curious. How often has a team that was very active in signing blue-chip free agents went on to win the Super Bowl?

I saw a article not too long ago that measured FA success for teams and put it into a graph. Basically it said best case scenario, it had a two-year peak and then the teams took a sharp nose dive. Worst case was the team did not do well and got everyone fired and they started over. So it seems to have limited success if successful. I haven't been able to find it again, but if I do I'll post it.

[rm1369]

Originally Posted by Chromeburn

I saw an article not too long ago that measured FA success for teams and put it into a graph. Basically it said best case scenario, it had a two-year peak and then the teams took a sharp nose dive. Worst case was the team did not do well and got everyone fired and they started over. So it seems to have limited success if successful. I haven't been able to find it again, but if I do I'll post it.

I’d like to see what kinds of transactions were monitored and tracked. My guess is it follows the Washington model previously mentioned. I think most people realize you aren’t going to be successful long term paying premium for multiple top free agents. No team “buys” its way to success. The issue is that there is a huge middle ground between the Washington model and Ballard’s model. Recent SB winners show the benefit of using all three methods of player acquisition in their roster building.

[Chromeburn]

Originally Posted by rm1369

I’d like to see what kinds of transactions were monitored and tracked. My guess is it follows the Washington model previously mentioned. I think most people realize you aren’t going to be successful long term paying premium for multiple top free agents. No team “buys” its way to success. The issue is that there is a huge middle ground between the Washington model and Ballard’s model. Recent SB winners show the benefit of using all three methods of player acquisition in their roster building.

I believe it was because players age out of their contract often and the hit rate is not the best to justify the cost.