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Insider: 10 thoughts on what to expect from Anthony Richardson and the 2023 Colts

Ten thoughts on this year's Colts team heading into Sunday's opener against the Jaguars:

1. New year, new coach, new quarterback, new scheme. Although the Colts rolled back many of the players who have built Chris Ballard’s core so far, the intrigue of this season is all about how Anthony Richardson fits into Shane Steichen’s scheme and what that marriage does for all the players around them.

Steichen has held back much of that scheme so far. But Sunday, we’ll start to see the real deal. It won’t be the advanced version like he had last year in Philadelphia. He doesn’t want to overwhelm his 21-year-old quarterback, and his teammates have to be on their assignments to make this work. Given that nine of the other starters are returning players, I think they’ll build some on Frank Reich’s playbook early and transition more and more to the Steichen-Richardson blend as the weeks roll on.


2. So, what should we expect to see that’s different? The most obvious element should be the quarterback run game. That’ll be one of Richardson’s progressions on passing plays when nobody is open. But it’ll also be by design.

Quarterback keepers allow a team to put 10 other blockers on the field. Steichen will use this in short yardage – get ready for the rugby-style quarterback sneak – as well as out of spread formations with a naturally light box. Also expect to see Richardson get to the edge on power plays, giving him a lane to build up speed and hopefully a matchup against a defensive back who isn’t so keen on tackling a 255-pound athlete.


More:If NFL lets him, Shane Steichen's bringing Philly's QB-push sneak to Colts

The rushing is what Richardson should be able to bring at a high level right away. Success is good for the offense, but it’s essential to easing the rookie through growing pains, ensuring there are highs to the lows. The more plays they can stay on the field as an offense, the more reps and experiences he'll notch under his belt.

Indianapolis Colts rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson will start in Week 1 against the Jacksonville Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium despite being just 21 years old.
3. Another reason we should see a heavy dose of Richardson runs is the absence of Jonathan Taylor. The Colts plan on playing a backfield by committee for the four-plus games they’ll play without him, splitting reps between Zack Moss, Deon Jackson and Evan Hull. The added threat of Richardson holding the ball on run-pass-option or zone read will open some early running lanes for them.


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But none of those backs possess the explosiveness or change of direction of Taylor and his 4.39-second 40-yard dash speed. Richardson, who ran a 4.44 40, does, and he has yards-after-contact potential at 255 pounds, too. He’s going to need to keep the ball sometimes to give them that chance.

“Winning the turnover battle and winning the explosive play battle is a big formula to winning around this league,” Steichen said.

And on his quarterback, “That’s one of his superpowers, is getting out of the pocket, running and creating explosive plays.”

(Sidenote: Richardson has an incredible backstory to get to Sunday's debut, and I got to spend a week in Gainesville discovering that this summer. I hope you'll check it out.)

TIM TEBOW, TOM BRADY AND FIGHTING FIRES: The making of Colts QB Anthony Richardson

4. The challenge here is going to be to get defenses to respect the running back enough to let Richardson keep the ball on the zone read. That was not how the Eagles approached them in the joint practices, as defensive ends converged on Richardson to force the hand-off, allowing safeties to step up on the running back.

The other challenge is finding a way to give Richardson the volume of chances to create an explosive play without absorbing the kind of hit that knocks him out of a game.

"We have to be smart," Steichen said. "There is a time and a place to go get it, and there is a time to be smart and get down or get out of bounds."

It is essential that the Colts protect Richardson, not only for the obvious reasons of his health but also because he can’t get the reps to develop in practice or games if he’s out injured. It’s the biggest risk they are taking with the Taylor standoff.

GO DEEPER: Jonathan Taylor and the Colts were a perfect marriage. Can they avoid a messy divorce?

5. The passing game is going to be a work in progress, obviously. You’ll see them gain some favorable matchups at times, where Richardson’s rushing will draw a safety into the box, send the other to the middle of the field and leave the sidelines open for Michael Pittman Jr. to work 1-on-1 on comeback routes and hitches and for Alec Pierce to fly down the field on nine-routes, at times off play-action.

But the moments where the defense knows they’re throwing are going to be quite challenging given the consistency, chemistry and timing that hasn’t developed yet. That's where someone will need to step up as a safety blanket at tight end. With Jelani Woods on injured reserve and Drew Ogletree essentially a rookie, Kylen Granson seems like the best bet. But that trust must become consistent.

Indianapolis Colts third-round rookie Josh Downs will start in the slot against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
6. I do expect to see a steady role for Josh Downs early on. Steichen said he’ll start in the slot. He has the closest thing to chemistry with Richardson, the roommate he connected with early on in rookie minicamp. And his short-area role seemed to take a boost in value with the absence of Taylor and the injury to Woods, among other tight end absences. The Colts have to avoid three-and-outs and obvious passing downs, and I expect them to use Downs as a pseudo run game the way offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter has out of the slot at different points in his career.

Downs might look like a rookie in size, but he doesn’t play or talk like one. This third-round pick is a two-time 1,000-yard receiver with two different quarterbacks at North Carolina. He’s sharp in his special awareness and his ability to avoid contact. His hands look natural. There might be a hard ceiling on a player who is 5-foot-10, 175 pounds and a rookie, but I bet he plays like a pro early on.

7. On defense, I’ll be interested to see what strides Kwity Paye and Dayo Odeyingbo can take. We’ve been saying that for a couple years, but this year feels paramount with the loss of Yannick Ngakoue and the youth in the secondary. The only way the Colts have an adequate pass defense is if the edge rush is a plus group. It can’t just fall on DeForest Buckner and the inside rush either, though that’s where I expect Odeyingbo to be at his best, rushing in place of Grover Stewart.

Samson Ebukam will factor, of course, but he’s been a No. 2 rusher his whole career, and he isn't playing opposite Nick Bosa now. (Bosa is so essential to the players around him that the 49ers just paid him $122 million guaranteed.) Paye is the first-round talent who has slimmed down a few pounds in order to bring juice around the edge while still holding the size to take on a tight end, too. In his third year, he could use a double-digit sack season.

Indianapolis Colts cornerback Darrell Baker Jr. will make his first career start on Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
8. That secondary is going to have growing pains when the top the outside cornerbacks combine for 174 career defensive snaps, all belonging to Dallis Flowers. Playing Flowers and Darrell Baker Jr. so much and developing second-round rookie JuJu Brents is all about trying to find a gem at a premium position heading into 2024.

That evaluation is going to cost some big plays, because as confident as these young players are, they still haven’t seen the nuances of NFL route running and the connections between veteran quarterbacks and receivers that toast young players on the regular.

But this is where Shaquille Leonard’s ability to stay healthy and return to All-Pro form is critical. The best way to make up for completions allowed is with turnovers, as the 2021 Colts discovered. If he can force enough timely ones, it’ll help maintain the young cornerbacks’ confidence and allow the defense to put Richardson in some favorable spots on the field.

MORE: 'Make people shut up': Cleared, Colts Shaquille Leonard out to prove doubters wrong again

9. I picked the Colts to go 6-11 in my game-by-game predictions. Surely, this will go better than last year, when I picked them to go 12-5.

There’s a world where the 2023 Colts can squeeze out eight wins against one of the easiest schedules – if the offensive line bounces back, if Taylor comes back after four weeks, if Richardson can hit his ceiling, if Pittman Jr. can ascend to No. 1 receiver status, if the edge rush grows up and if Leonard plays like The Maniac again.

But injuries, unfortunately, are guaranteed to happen, and the depth on this team is as concerning as any I’ve been around -- namely at offensive line and wide receiver, or the positions that impact Richardson the most. It's the cost of going young and holding resources toward future seasons. Some players are going to be overwhelmed by the circumstances at times. And in a passing league, the part of the Colts that’s developing the most on both sides of the ball is likely to take some lumps.

Aside from Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III in 2012, quarterbacks drafted in the top 10 don't carry teams to winning records as rookies. Setting expectations realistically is important for how we judge this rookie quarterback and the process around him.

Patience, everybody.

Indianapolis Colts rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson was one of seven players named captains for the 2023 season.
10. This season is really about the young players -- how they develop and what they tell us about the timeline this franchise is on come January. That obviously starts with Richardson, but it extends to names like Bernhard Raimann, Dallis Flowers, Darrell Baker Jr., JuJu Brents, Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, Michael Pittman Jr., Jelani Woods, Drew Ogletree, Kwity Paye, Dayo Odeyingbo. Those are the premium positions where the Colts have lacked dudes, and they need some to emerge with real potential.

Ultimately, though, it’ll come back to No. 5. They have to find a way to use this rookie season as a positive by keeping him healthy, allowing him to flash his upside, growing through mistakes, improving his mechanics and learning how to deal with success and failure in a way that teammates want to rock with.

By the time he walks off the field in Week 18, whether the Colts have two wins or eight, they need to feel better about the No. 4 pick than they do right now. That doesn’t mean he has to blow the doors off. It does mean he has to put some reality behind the concept of Anthony Richardson. It’ll mean everything for a franchise on its seventh Week 1 starter in seven years, praying that the end to the carousel is wearing No. 5.