Why it might not matter when the Colts start Anthony Richardson

[JAFF]

https://www.indystar.com/story/sport...t/70426163007/

Indianapolis Colts team owner Jim Irsay said (again) last week quarterback Anthony Richardson has to play as a rookie to get better.

"As you guys know, Peyton (Manning’s rookie) year we were 3-13,” Irsay said on the Pat McAfee Show on July 10. “That’s a guy who played a lot of college games and was really prepared as much as he could be for the league. So, for Anthony Richardson, it’s going to be tough. We know that. But he has to play to get better. I mean, there’s no question. Gardner (Minshew) could come out and play better early on, him just being a veteran, but we have to get Anthony on the field. And that’s (coach) Shane (Steichen’s) call when he decides to do it.”


History, however, says something different.

Between 2004 and 2019, 35 quarterbacks have been picked in the top half of the first round of the NFL draft; here's five things to know from the history of those players.

More:Richardson, Minshew have a bond that keeps growing despite QB competition

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) works through passing drills Wednesday, June 14, 2023, during mandatory minicamp at the Indiana Farm Bureau Football Center in Indianapolis.
1. Anthony Richardson will play this year

The last quarterback picked in the top half of the draft to sit out his rookie season is Jake Locker in 2011. Before him it's Philip Rivers in 2004. If a quarterback is drafted in the top half of the first round, he's playing as a rookie.


Like Manning, Locker (40 games, 1,147 attempts) and Rivers (49 games, 1,710 passes) played a lot in college. Locker was a bust — competing 54.0% of his passes, one of the few recent picks less accurate than Richardson — while Rivers is one of the most prolific quarterbacks in NFL history.

"There is a very limited amount of competitive reps for (Richardson) coming out of college, so he needs to get on the field," said Ryan Leaf, a quarterback bust himself, on Good Morning Football after Irsay's comments. "Unfortunately, with rookie quarterbacks there's a really fine line with how confident they are... If you do decide to go with him, you have to have a plan in place for when he fails, because he's going to. The Chargers didn't have a plan for me."


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2. When a QB starts his first game is not predictive of future success

I'm not saying Irsay is wrong about Richardson. He may well need to play to reach his potential. History, however, says the Locker-Rivers comparison is just one of many that show playing time as a rookie is not an indicator of future success.


Of the 35 quarterbacks picked in the top half of the first round between 2004-19, 11 made at least three Pro Bowls. This is not a perfect place to draw a line but we have to do it somewhere and it's as good a choice as any. (The quarterbacks are: Ben Roethlisberger, Rivers, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Jared Goff, Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler are the best of the other group.)

Those 11 quarterbacks made their first start, on average, in Game No. 7.6 (5.1 if we remove Rivers). The rest of the quarterbacks? It's Game 4.3.

There are, obviously, a lot of factors that go into when a quarterback makes his first start but when it comes is not a strong indicator of future success by itself.

3. What does history say about rookie quarterbacks starting Game 1?

Fourteen of the quarterbacks started Game 1 and only three have gone on to successful careers using the three Pro Bowl criteria — Matt Ryan, Cam Newton and Luck — just 21%. Stafford is included in this group and the book is far from closed on Kyler Murray. Mark Sanchez, Sam Bradford, Ryan Tannehill, Robert Griffin III, E.J. Manuel, Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, Carson Wentz and Sam Darnold complete the list.


Of the 21 quarterbacks that didn't start Game 1, 8 reached three Pro Bowls — Roethlisberger, Rivers, Manning, Smith, Goff, Watson, Mahomes and Allen. There's some evidence this group is more boom or bust with Jay Cutler, Matt Leinart, Vince Young, JaMarcus Russell, Christian Ponder, Blaine Gabbert, Locker, Blake Bortles, Mitchell Trubisky, Josh Rosen, Baker Mayfield, Dwayne Haskins and Daniel Jones in the lesser group.

4. Patrick Mahomes vs. JaMarcus Russell

Two quarterbacks in the data sample made their debut in Game 17: Mahomes and Russell. Mahomes is the best quarterback on this list, Russell is, perhaps, the worst. It's certainly worth noting Russell couldn't dislodge an old-before-his-time Duante Culpepper or Josh McCown on the 2007 Raiders while Mahomes was playing behind Smith, a three-time Pro Bowler who won two-thirds of his starts.

But another data point that when a quarterback makes his first start is not an indicator of future success.

5. It is unlikely we'll know how good Anthony Richardson is this season

Mahomes had an obscene 130.1 passer rating in his first three starts. The next best? Mariota. Then comes Wentz.


The other end of the spectrum? Smith at 29.4. Then Eli Manning at 42.4. Young (who made two Pro Bowls) is at 56.5. Stafford comes next, who is in the "bad" group because he's only made one Pro Bowl but is still one of the top 10 quarterbacks on this list.

Let's look at full rookie seasons. The best by passer rating in this group are Watson, Griffin III and Roethlisberger, all better than 98.0. Griffin III's career was derailed by injuries so you can't argue with this group on the field.

But next come Mayfield, Mariota and Jones. Smith, Eli Manning and Stafford posted the three worst rookie passing ratings.

If Richardson posts a passer rating over 95.0 in 12ish games, then start feeling good about the future. But (sorry Twitter) we're unlikely to know how good (or bad) he is this season.

"We watched Jalen Hurts use his feet in certain situations in Shane Steichen's offense, I think we'll see something similar (from Richardson)," Leaf said. "But we haven't seen anything from him throwing from the pocket. He has a live arm. That's in your underwear. That's in front of scouts. What happens when you've got Grady Jarrett at your feet and you have to step up and make a throw on third and 13 to extend a drive? We haven't seen that happen. Preseason doesn't necessarily give you that. So if they have something scripted for him, maybe Shane has him come in a couple series here, does that take away from the momentum? Or are they understanding this might be a year we won't quantify with wins and losses? I think maybe Jim Irsay has done that."