Quick thoughts on Colts-Raiders

[rm1369]

Originally Posted by Chaka

Just so you know, I wasn't trying to prove you wrong - I said I thought you made a fair point. I only listed the last four years because that's all I had on my computer screen at the time, and those were the only years I had been discussing in my prior posts on the subject (though you did make me realize I had mixed up the timing of Luck's injury in 2015/2016)

That said, I looked at 2012-2014 after seeing your post, and found that the sack rates in those years (where we had a high YPC) were actually lower than the later years. Here's the sack rates along with the YPC average:

2014 - Sack rate 4.39% (4th best) / YPC 11.94 (3rd best)
2013 - Sack rate 5.50% (5th best) / YPC 10.64 (10th best)
2012 - Sack rate 6.53% (15th best) / YPC 12.18 (3rd best)

So I'm not seeing a great correlation, at least in these years, between higher YPC / higher sack rate.

That’s interesting and honestly surprising to me. Seems like the line has sucked pass blocking throughout Luck’s career. Is my memory wrong in Luck taking a lot of punishment even early in his career? I’ll have to look up QB hit stats when I get a chance. I also don’t remember the line being particularly talented.

Interesting that 2015 was the start of the Chud offense. You may be right that the YPC stats don’t show a great correlation, but maybe there is one for the coaching? I’ll have to look into it more. The offense appears much better designed to me. I’m not at all trying to knock the talent improvement on the line - it’s obvious. I’m just trying to highlight the improvements in the offensive scheme and philosophy. To me one of the best things a coach can do is highlight his teams strengths and minimize their weaknesses. I rarely felt like I saw that with the previous coaching staff. It never felt like they took their roster into account when designing schemes or calling plays. They coached for the team they wish they had.

It will be interesting to me to monitor the YPC stat as the season progresses. My guess is it increases as the line progresses and the run game allows more play action.

[DrSpaceman]

The sack rate does not take into account how much scrambling Luck had to do those years and the hurries. I think that is what is missing in those stats

Luck has hardly had to scramble at all this year. Not only is he not being sacked, he is not running for his life back there anymore either.

[FatDT]

Agree, Luck was famous his first years in the league for all the narrow escapes and great pocket movement.

[Chaka]

Originally Posted by JAFF

Last two games, how many third and longs did the Colts face? When you can run, you throw on short second downs. You run less 7 step drops. The moment costanzo came back to play, the O line has controlled the line of scrimmage. When you can run the ball, you dictate why YOU throw. You cant run the D dictates when you throw

I get the theory, but my question was whether the real world stats back it up. It sounds like you're saying what I thought - teams who run the ball poorly should have a higher sack rate, since defenses will be better able to predict when they pass. Sounds reasonable enough in theory, but is that how it plays out in real life?

[Chaka]

Originally Posted by rm1369

That’s interesting and honestly surprising to me. Seems like the line has sucked pass blocking throughout Luck’s career. Is my memory wrong in Luck taking a lot of punishment even early in his career? I’ll have to look up QB hit stats when I get a chance. I also don’t remember the line being particularly talented.

Interesting that 2015 was the start of the Chud offense. You may be right that the YPC stats don’t show a great correlation, but maybe there is one for the coaching? I’ll have to look into it more. The offense appears much better designed to me. I’m not at all trying to knock the talent improvement on the line - it’s obvious. I’m just trying to highlight the improvements in the offensive scheme and philosophy. To me one of the best things a coach can do is highlight his teams strengths and minimize their weaknesses. I rarely felt like I saw that with the previous coaching staff. It never felt like they took their roster into account when designing schemes or calling plays. They coached for the team they wish they had.

It will be interesting to me to monitor the YPC stat as the season progresses. My guess is it increases as the line progresses and the run game allows more play action.

Yep, I hope so. Stats are interesting and useful but, as you and others have pointed out, don't always tell the whole story. Sack rate by itself is one indicator of a good/bad offensive line, but other statistical info would also bear on the issue - QB hits as you've mentioned, average length of time the QB holds the ball, etc. And YPC is one indicator of the type of passes a QB has been throwing, but we'd also need to consider the skills of the WRs involved for example. So there's still plenty of room for debate regardless of the stats.

[VeveJones007]

Originally Posted by DrSpaceman

The sack rate does not take into account how much scrambling Luck had to do those years and the hurries. I think that is what is missing in those stats

Luck has hardly had to scramble at all this year. Not only is he not being sacked, he is not running for his life back there anymore either.

It also doesn't factor in hits. The striking thing about the last few weeks isn't just the lack of sacks; it's the lack of pressure and QB hits.

[JAFF]

Originally Posted by Chaka

I get the theory, but my question was whether the real world stats back it up. It sounds like you're saying what I thought - teams who run the ball poorly should have a higher sack rate, since defenses will be better able to predict when they pass. Sounds reasonable enough in theory, but is that how it plays out in real life?

Look at last years team

[Puck]

I like Chaka. He’s bringing some shit to be discussed!

[Chaka]

Originally Posted by Puck

I like Chaka. He’s bringing some shit to be discussed!

The lack of "thanks" for Puck's useful post is appalling

[JAFF]

Originally Posted by Chaka

The lack of "thanks" for Puck's useful post is appalling

I'm new, but wouldn't this earn a

"shut up fag"

???