Quick thoughts.

[Chromeburn]

Originally Posted by ukcolt

I like Pittman, but he isn't a dynamic player, who oppositions fear. He will get yards, but they are often the yards a defense is happy to give up and move on to the next play.

What’s the definition of a dynamic player. I see this pop up and no one can define it because there is no standard for it. It’s a nebulous statement that based on subjectivity. Is Mike Evans dynamic? Is Keenan Allen dynamic? Is AJ Brown dynamic? He was 10th in receptions despite the absolute shitshow at QB last year and had more catches than all those guys.

I think Colt fans compare him to Reggie and Marv, hof receivers, and think he doesn’t measure up. But he doesn’t have Manning throwing to him and you should judge him against contemporary peers, not past hof receivers from the team. Everyone in the league except for a few guys wouldn’t measure up.

[ChoppedWood]

Originally Posted by Chromeburn

What’s the definition of a dynamic player. I see this pop up and no one can define it because there is no standard for it. It’s a nebulous statement that based on subjectivity. Is Mike Evans dynamic? Is Keenan Allen dynamic? Is AJ Brown dynamic? He was 10th in receptions despite the absolute shitshow at QB last year and had more catches than all those guys.

I think Colt fans compare him to Reggie and Marv, hof receivers, and think he doesn’t measure up. But he doesn’t have Manning throwing to him and you should judge him against contemporary peers, not past hof receivers from the team. Everyone in the league except for a few guys wouldn’t measure up.

He does not have the quicks to create separation at the line and does not have the straight line speed to kill a defender on a streak and his hands are "good" not great. A # 1, has all three of those things in one profile.

Fantastic possession guy and a tough after the catch runner, but he is not a dynamic play maker at the WR position that has a special quality that has to be gamed for. i.e. Hill, Adams, Metcalf, even a guy like Kupp.

We do not have such a weapon, haven't had one since TY and that's a disgrace that Ballard somehow manages to escape. Again, another area where he is not good at building the position.

[Chromeburn]

Originally Posted by ChoppedWood

He does not have the quicks to create separation at the line and does not have the straight line speed to kill a defender on a streak and his hands are "good" not great. A # 1, has all three of those things in one profile.

Fantastic possession guy and a tough after the catch runner, but he is not a dynamic play maker at the WR position that has a special quality that has to be gamed for. i.e. Hill, Adams, Metcalf, even a guy like Kupp.

We do not have such a weapon, haven't had one since TY and that's a disgrace that Ballard somehow manages to escape. Again, another area where he is not good at building the position.

So by your definition how many number 1 receivers are there in the NFL? Can you show me this list of number 1's and where Pittman ranks on that?

[ChoppedWood]

This is roughly how I view the NFL WR room. There are 5 teams that have 2 players catching balls that I think are better than our 1st option= Pittman. In terms of "No. 1's". I think this list starts moving from that tier to a 2nd tier at right around 15. So basically half the teams in the NFL IMO have that year in / year out 1st Pro Bowl starter level player. Don't misread this, I like Pittman and think he is good for the team, but to me, he is not in that mode of game changer that you just go into the game knowing it's gonna be a long day in the office trying to keep up with him. Again, I don't think we've had that since TY and I just don't think Ballard understands just how necessary that player is in today's NFL.


No 1 WR's Player Team
1 Jefferson Vikes
2 Hill Phins
3 Chase Bengals
4 Metcalf Hawks
5 Wilson Jets
6 Higgins Bengals
7 Adams Raiders
8 Brown Eagles
9 Lamb Cowboys
10 Diggs Bills
11 Kupp Rams
12 Givens Steelers
13 Ridley Jags
14 McLaurin Commanders
15 Marquis Brown Lions
16 Kelce Chiefs
17 Waddle Fins
18 Smith Eagles
19 Olave Saints
20 Cooper Cleveland
21 Evans Bucs
22 Smith-Njgba Hawks
23 Moore Bears
24 Debo 49ers
25 Aiyuk 49ers
26 Kittle 49ers
27 Zay Flowers Ravens
28 Pittman Colts
29 Allen Chargers
30 Hopkins Texans

[Chromeburn]

Originally Posted by ChoppedWood

This is roughly how I view the NFL WR room. There are 5 teams that have 2 players catching balls that I think are better than our 1st option= Pittman. In terms of "No. 1's". I think this list starts moving from that tier to a 2nd tier at right around 15. So basically half the teams in the NFL IMO have that year in / year out 1st Pro Bowl starter level player. Don't misread this, I like Pittman and think he is good for the team, but to me, he is not in that mode of game changer that you just go into the game knowing it's gonna be a long day in the office trying to keep up with him. Again, I don't think we've had that since TY and I just don't think Ballard understands just how necessary that player is in today's NFL.


No 1 WR's Player Team
1 Jefferson Vikes
2 Hill Phins
3 Chase Bengals
4 Metcalf Hawks
5 Wilson Jets
6 Higgins Bengals
7 Adams Raiders
8 Brown Eagles
9 Lamb Cowboys
10 Diggs Bills
11 Kupp Rams
12 Givens Steelers
13 Ridley Jags
14 McLaurin Commanders
15 Marquis Brown Lions
16 Kelce Chiefs
17 Waddle Fins
18 Smith Eagles
19 Olave Saints
20 Cooper Cleveland
21 Evans Bucs
22 Smith-Njgba Hawks
23 Moore Bears
24 Debo 49ers
25 Aiyuk 49ers
26 Kittle 49ers
27 Zay Flowers Ravens
28 Pittman Colts
29 Allen Chargers
30 Hopkins Texans

Do you have data to back this up, otherwise its just your opinion. I assumed you were going to list separation or whatever data you are ranking these guys by. That's what I'm asking for, data to backup your opinions. And you have TE's in there.

Where does the number one status end, because you have Pittman 28th?

[ChoppedWood]

Originally Posted by Chromeburn

Do you have data to back that up, otherwise its just your opinion. I assumed you were going to list separation or whatever evidence you are ranking these guys by. That's what I'm asking for, data to backup your opinions. And you have TE's in there.

No, I don't have statistical evidence of such, and yes, as I stated IMO this is the NFL's list of the best, and yes there are TE's in there because there are TE's that I think are more in the mode of a # 1 guy, than the one we have as the # 1.

Would you take him over:
Hill or Waddle
Chase or Higgins
Metcalf or Njgba
Brown or Smith
Debo or Kittle or Aiyuk
Would you? I certainly wouldn't, and I doubt many if any on this board would either. That says something. It says there are 4-5 teams that have done a better job of identifying / developing 2 guys on the same team to do something better than our 1 guy.

Sorry, not sure what more you want? If you are seeing games where Pittman is trouncing the opposition and just wrecking defenses with blow buys or 70 yard posts and write ups by PFF etc...calling out how he is nearly unstoppable, great, but I think we are seeing the same games he plays? He just isn't one of those game changing guys, he just isn't no matter how bad we may want him to be- and I think everyone of us would love for him to be.

[Chromeburn]

Originally Posted by ChoppedWood

No, I don't have statistical evidence of such, and yes, as I stated IMO this is the NFL's list of the best, and yes there are TE's in there because there are TE's that I think are more in the mode of a # 1 guy, than the one we have as the # 1.

Would you take him over:
Hill or Waddle
Chase or Higgins
Metcalf or Njgba
Brown or Smith
Debo or Kittle or Aiyuk
Would you? I certainly wouldn't, and I doubt many if any on this board would either. That says something. It says there are 4-5 teams that have done a better job of identifying / developing 2 guys on the same team to do something better than our 1 guy.

Sorry, not sure what more you want? If you are seeing games where Pittman is trouncing the opposition and just wrecking defenses with blow buys or 70 yard posts and write ups by PFF etc...calling out how he is nearly unstoppable, great, but I think we are seeing the same games he plays? He just isn't one of those game changing guys, he just isn't no matter how bad we may want him to be- and I think everyone of us would love for him to be.

You only list 11 guys there. You have Pittman as 28. Tell me where on your list do guys stop being number 1 receivers? Then I'll answer you questions.

[ChoppedWood]

Originally Posted by Chromeburn

You only list 11 guys there. You have Pittman as 28. Tell me where on your list do guys stop being number 1 receivers? Then I'll answer you questions.

I already said, I draw that imaginary line at somewhere around # 15. Those dudes in that first group are just on a different level IMO. This is obviously a subjective topic, very few are going to agree on the precise definition of this or that player. If this were that objective, well then we wouldn't be having this debate.

So where in that list do you put Pittman? Who does he climb over to enter into the space of a true # 1 WR in the NFL?

I'm open to debate, but I need something to tell me why he is better than say 18 of those dudes ahead of him...

[Chromeburn]

Originally Posted by ChoppedWood

I already said, I draw that imaginary line at somewhere around # 15. Those dudes in that first group are just on a different level IMO. This is obviously a subjective topic, very few are going to agree on the precise definition of this or that player. If this were that objective, well then we wouldn't be having this debate.

So where in that list do you put Pittman? Who does he climb over to enter into the space of a true # 1 WR in the NFL?

I'm open to debate, but I need something to tell me why he is better than say 18 of those dudes ahead of him...

I put him in the 10 to 15 range. He doesn’t have another receiver to draw coverage away from him. He faces the opposing team’s best CB every week. And he has mid to bad QB play to deal with. But he is still putting up wr 1 numbers for three seasons. Also he is more, and better, than the contested catch wr ppl have him pegged as. He is not a burner but is very good at creating separation at the catch point. There is no one successful type of WR, lots of different kinds are successful.

Even though he’s 6’4, 223 pounds, he is able to create quick separation off the line. His 10-yard split was faster than all of these prospects at the combine even though he is 20lbs heavier than some:

Pittman Jr. = 1.51
Reagor = 1.52
Aiyuk = 1.52
Jefferson = 1.54
Higgins = 1.66

I don't have a whole lot from 2022, that was a fubar season, but a lot from 2021.

Michael Pittman Jr. was an absolute dog against single-man coverage in 2021, creating a step or more of separation on 66% of his opportunities.
Only Mike Evans (73%) and Keenan Allen (67%) finished higher.
He was only targeted 28% vs. s-man coverage while other leaders saw 40%+
Top-10 WRs at generating step or more of separation vs. single-man coverage in 2021 (min 70 routes against single man)

73% Mike Evans
67% Keenan Allen
66% Michael Pittman Jr.
65% Amari Cooper
65% A.J. Brown
64% Cooper Kupp
63% Jaylen Waddle
62% Marquise Brown
62% Brandin Cooks
62% Justin Jefferson

Michael Pittman Jr has this weird stigma around him that he is a contested catch guy... however only 20% of his catches in 2021 were contested. He’s an underneath smooth route runner. People think the only separation you can do is with deep balls and 4.3 speed. But a ton of receivers have been great without those attributes. Pittman generates his separation just before the point of contact with the ball. Creating a step or more before he catches the ball. He doesn't have that second gear to burn guys but that doesn't mean he doesn't do enough to get open.

He also had a higher average separation than guys like Terry McLaurin, Stefon Diggs, and D.J Moore last year (per Next Gen Stats) and a 96% success rate against press coverage. Press coverage is what these lighter speedy receivers have trouble with, but Pittman is strong enough to not be redirected.

Entering this season the top NFL receivers against press coverage.

1. Justin Jefferson (84%)
T-2. Stephon Diggs (83.3%)
T-2. A.J. Brown (83.3%)
4. Devante Adams (83.1)
5. Terry McLaurin (81.7%)
6. Michael Pittman (81.7%)
7. Garret Wilson (81.2%)
8. Ja'Marr Chase (80.2%)
9. Brandon Aiyuk (79.3%)
10. Jahan Dotson (78.8)AC

That's some elite company for a number 2 receiver.

Finally his stats. They place him in the 10-15 range. Number 2’s don’t get 1000 yards in their second year. This guy would be killing it with consistent QB play. He is their most consistent contributor for several years now. If he was easy to scheme away then he would be taken away.

[ChoppedWood]

Originally Posted by Chromeburn

I put him in the 10 to 15 range. He doesn’t have another receiver to draw coverage away from him. He faces the opposing team’s best CB every week. And he has mid to bad QB play to deal with. But he is still putting up wr 1 numbers for three seasons. Also he is more, and better, than the contested catch wr ppl have him pegged as. He is not a burner but is very good at creating separation at the catch point. There is no one successful type of WR, lots of different kinds are successful.

I’ll lay it out later today with stats in this post after I finish some things.

Yeah the QB play definitely should be a variable in this eval. Obviously Chase and Higgins and Brown and Smith have great QB's to throw them the ball making them look better than their already world class talents present. However the guys on the 9ers and Hawks haven't really had that level of top tier QB and they have done some great things (Russ and Metcalf... yeah I get it).

He has really been on the short end of the stick with the QB situation around here. Would be fabulous if this new cat leads to Pittman emerging as a bonafide WR star, would love nothing more and would back off Ballard for knowing more than it looks like to me right now.