Realistic Draft

[rm1369]

Originally Posted by ZiaColt

I'm not sure the one has that much to do with the other: my impression is that the Colts trading to #6 says they think Luck will probably be back BUT they are willing to go with Brissett if he isn't, and they thus don't really have a "QB problem" that's anywhere near as urgent as their problems with the offensive line and the overall defense.

The existence of a 4th player the Colts rate in the top tier of non QBs made the 6th pick a perfect landing spot on a trade back. The only way Luck factored into it at all is that his arm hadn’t fallen off. Thats the only way the Colts plan for the draft would have changed. I don’t see Brissett factoring in at all. Agree with it or not, Ballard has a long term plan to build the roster. I don’t think the short term QB situation factors in at all.

[ZiaColt]

Originally Posted by rm1369

The existence of a 4th player the Colts rate in the top tier of non QBs made the 6th pick a perfect landing spot on a trade back. The only way Luck factored into it at all is that his arm hadn’t fallen off. Thats the only way the Colts plan for the draft would have changed. I don’t see Brissett factoring in at all. Agree with it or not, Ballard has a long term plan to build the roster. I don’t think the short term QB situation factors in at all.

that's essentially what I'm saying: between Luck's rehab and Brissett's play (which I do see as an additional factor) the Colts apparently feel confident that QB is one position that doesn't require immediate attention--unlike OL, LB, WR, DB, RB, and DL.

Especially when (at the time, anyway) it looked like Chubb would still be available at #6. And he may still turn out to be, but if not Nelson (or Fitzpatrick or Edmunds) should be.

The most fascinating hypothetical to me would be: what if one of the QB's and Barkley both fell to #6? And what if, as a result, another team made a trade offer that Ballard felt would allow the Colts to add draft picks AND still get Edmunds or Fitzpatrick? (I'm assuming in this scenario that the reason both Barkley and a QB fell to #6 is because Chubb and Nelson both went in the top 5)

that could make things a bit crazy on Draft Day. Maybe the 49ers really like Edmunds...until they look up and see Barkley sitting there at #6 and they offer Ballard #9 and....etc, etc.

[rm1369]

Originally Posted by ZiaColt

The most fascinating hypothetical to me would be: what if one of the QB's and Barkley both fell to #6? And what if, as a result, another team made a trade offer that Ballard felt would allow the Colts to add draft picks AND still get Edmunds or Fitzpatrick?

I think someone would have to pay a pretty big premium to get Ballard to move off his spot and risk missing one of his big 4. But with QBs involved that is always possible.

I’d love to know who the 4th player is and how Ballard ranks them. Fans heads may explode if Chubb is available and Ballard passes on him for his mystery player.

[Puck]

Originally Posted by rm1369

I think someone would have to pay a pretty big premium to get Ballard to move off his spot and risk missing one of his big 4. But with QBs involved that is always possible.

I’d love to know who the 4th player is and how Ballard ranks them. Fans heads may explode if Chubb is available and Ballard passes on him for his mystery player.

I think some are going to be very surprised. I think if Chubb is there Ballard may trade the pick. I think he wants his Urlacher for this defense and that is Edmunds

[ZiaColt]

Originally Posted by rm1369

I think someone would have to pay a pretty big premium to get Ballard to move off his spot and risk missing one of his big 4. But with QBs involved that is always possible.

I’d love to know who the 4th player is and how Ballard ranks them. Fans heads may explode if Chubb is available and Ballard passes on him for his mystery player.

if I were forced to guess, I'd guess Edmunds because, at his young age, he may well have the biggest upside of any player, defensive or offensive, in this entire draft. Including guys like Barkley and Allen.

I personally feel Fitzpatrick would have an even bigger impact, sooner, but maybe not as much 3-4 years down the road. It's not out of the question to think that Edmunds could develop into an even more effective pass rusher, from more places on the field, than Chubb will. Plus, there are some scouts who evidently like James as much as, or even more than, Fitzpatrick.

And the problems with my previous "49ers scenario" are 1) it's entirely possible that Tampa Bay and Chicago, at #7 and #8, would happily draft Edmunds and Fitzpatrick before we ever got to the 9th pick, and 2) the 49ers don't really have a lot to offer other than #9--their next pick IIRC is #59.

But it would make for some fascinating melodrama. Maybe if the Bears hadn't drafted Trubisky, and the Colts were sitting there at #6 with either Allen or Mayfield available AND Barkley available, the trade with the 49ers could make sense. Niners get the generational RB/receiver to go with Garoppolo in Shanahan's offense, Bears get potential franchise QB in Allen or Mayfield, Colts still get Edmunds AND another 2nd round pick.

Or maybe Tampa Bay throws a monkey wrench into the whole process then by still drafting Edmunds 7th?

[Puck]

Lance Zerlien who is one of Ballards buddies and predicted the trade to six. Seems to have inside info a lot. He says it's Edmunds and say he would take home at 6 over Nelson.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...for-josh-allen

[ZiaColt]

Originally Posted by Puck

Lance Zerlien who is one of Ballards buddies and predicted the trade to six. Seems to have inside info a lot. He says it's Edmunds and say he would take home at 6 over Nelson.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...for-josh-allen

I love Nelson but it's worth remembering that

1) he's a generational talent at an OL position that is probably less important than tackle in the NFL's current pass-happy status--and a great pass-rusher usually can impact a game/team in even more ways than a great guard can;

2) there are other very promising guard prospects in this draft (if anything, more of them than there are tackles) and at least one of them will likely be on the board at#36, if not even later (Hernandez, Wynn, B. Smith, etc)

[YDFL Commish]

Here is my biggest fear. There are only 2 legitimate MLB prospects and they are Smith and Vander Esch. We probably don't get either.

As far as my conceded the rest of the MLB prospects are garbage.

Smith could be the next Derrick Brooks and Vander Esch the next Brian Urlacher.

Yes I know Derrick Brooks wasn't a MLB.

[ZiaColt]

Originally Posted by YDFL Commish

Here is my biggest fear. There are only 2 legitimate MLB prospects and they are Smith and Vander Esch. We probably don't get either.

As far as my conceded the rest of the MLB prospects are garbage.

Smith could be the next Derrick Brooks and Vander Esch the next Brian Urlacher.

Yes I know Derrick Brooks wasn't a MLB.

not sure I see Smith at MLB given his height and weight--think he's likely more OLB than ILB. Although, come to think of it, he's about the same size as Singletary was.

FWIW, Malik Jefferson may be available in the 2nd round and has all the measurables to be a good MLB, but he didn't really set the world on fire at UTexas, for whatever reason. Of course, you could probably say that about a number of Texas' players over the past few seasons.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by Puck

I think some are going to be very surprised. I think if Chubb is there Ballard may trade the pick. I think he wants his Urlacher for this defense and that is Edmunds

Edmunds doesn't play anything like Urlacher.