With the third pick....

[YDFL Commish]

Originally Posted by sherck

Dang....


I was doing research on the potential hiring of Josh McDaniels and found a few tidbits.

From this article on a Cheats board (Pats Pulpit....here), they looked at McDaniels' offense from 2006 - 2014 and who got the ball (touches) and who gained the most yards.

This period includes McDaniels' 1st time as Cheats OC (2006 - 2008), Denver HC (2009 - 2010) and St. Louis OC (2011) before returning to the Cheats for a 2nd time as OC (2012 - 2014).

What did he find?


So, through the majority of his time as OC or HC, his offenses have featured his RBs followed by his WRs with his TEs coming in dead last.

I did some spot analysis of the Cheats 2016 / 2017 numbers and they are in line with the above figures.

So, to bring that back to this thread.

Fact A = Ballard says that he drafts BPA pretty much exclusively (obviously, not at QB but otherwise...).

Fact B = Under a McDaniels' offense, the RBs average touching the ball on 63% of the offensive plays (run or pass).

Fact C = The Colts RB corps for 2018 currently is underwhelming. Even if they re-sign Frank Gore, they are still, at best, NFL average.

Fact D = Penn State RB Saquon Barkley is considered by many to be the best player in the 2018 draft and completely NFL ready to start and succeed from day one. Obviously, the combine and the vetting process may change this assessment but as of now....

Ergo, if McDaniels' is the next HC of the Colts, Barkley will be our pick at #3 overall in the 2018 draft. Need plus BPA marry up on this one.

Further, if McDaniels' is the next HC of the Colts, I fully expect that at least 2 "monster" free agency contracts signed by us will be offensive line.

Sigh....not the way that I want it to happen. I like Barkley but our O-Line / Defensive Front-7 are not stocked well enough for us to pick a "luxury" pick of RB at #3 overall, IMO.

But, he will be Andrew's "Edge" and that will make Irsay and McDaniels very happy.

Walk Worthy,

But the Pats have done it W/O a superstar RB (other than Corey Dillon), it been mostly a RB by committee. Even back in 2006, there were times that Dillon was a healthy scratch.

The Pats RB's have been Corey Dillon, Lawrence Maroney, Kevin Faulk, Sammy Morris, Green Ellis, Fred Taylor, Stevan Ridley, Danny Woodhead, Shane Vareen, Brandon Bolden, Jonas Gray, LaGarrette Blount, James White, Dion Lewis, Mike Gilesllee, Rex Burkhead.

Notice a trend? All role playing RB's for the most part.

Although, the Pats offense is labeled a Erhardt/Perkins scheme, essentially BB and McDaniels are running a Ted Marchibroda modified offense from the '70's.

The old timers here can back me up on this, but the Baltmore Colts under Marchibroda threw to the RB's a lot.

I can see a lot of what Brady does under center is very similar to what Bert Jones did.

So, in theory, we would not need a superstar RB.

[sherck]

Originally Posted by YDFL Commish

But the Pats have done it W/O a superstar RB (other than Corey Dillon), it been mostly a RB by committee. Even back in 2006, there were times that Dillon was a healthy scratch.

The Pats RB's have been Corey Dillon, Lawrence Maroney, Kevin Faulk, Sammy Morris, Green Ellis, Fred Taylor, Stevan Ridley, Danny Woodhead, Shane Vareen, Brandon Bolden, Jonas Gray, LaGarrette Blount, James White, Dion Lewis, Mike Gilesllee, Rex Burkhead.

Notice a trend? All role playing RB's for the most part.

Although, the Pats offense is labeled a Erhardt/Perkins scheme, essentially BB and McDaniels are running a Ted Marchibroda modified offense from the '70's.

The old timers here can back me up on this, but the Baltmore Colts under Marchibroda threw to the RB's a lot.

I can see a lot of what Brady does under center is very similar to what Bert Jones did.

So, in theory, we would not need a superstar RB.

I don't disagree with you; however....

The Cheats have had the luxury of having a top defense for the majority of their run since 2006. This contributes to....

An effective offense centered around a stud QB. Yeah, I hate Tommy Cheater but he is a stud. This is fueled by....

An offensive line that, while not top five, has been solidly good for a long time. I think that Tommy Cheater's quick release and intelligence game plan design does a lot of this but....

Leading to the fact that RB, while getting 63% of the touches, is RARELY the focus of opposing defenses or opposing game plans. Early on, folks game planned to score on the Pats defense. Later, they game planned to stop Tommy Cheater. Rarely, if ever, did they gameplan to stop the run.

The Colts do not have a top defense, they don't have a stud QB (that might change but currently, and they don't have a demonstrated good game plan. That means that running back by committee will probably not work out much better than it has over the past couple of years for the Colts.

Also, our owner wants Barkley. He wants his next Edge. Big factor there.

I am with you, brother. I want a complete team with studs at QB, O-line, and on Defense before I want a stud RB.

However, if McDaniels' is our next HC, I see all the factors coming together at Barkley at #3 overall.

Walk Worthy,

[YDFL Commish]

Originally Posted by sherck

I don't disagree with you; however....

The Cheats have had the luxury of having a top defense for the majority of their run since 2006. This contributes to....

An effective offense centered around a stud QB. Yeah, I hate Tommy Cheater but he is a stud. This is fueled by....

An offensive line that, while not top five, has been solidly good for a long time. I think that Tommy Cheater's quick release and intelligence game plan design does a lot of this but....

Leading to the fact that RB, while getting 63% of the touches, is RARELY the focus of opposing defenses or opposing game plans. Early on, folks game planned to score on the Pats defense. Later, they game planned to stop Tommy Cheater. Rarely, if ever, did they gameplan to stop the run.

The Colts do not have a top defense, they don't have a stud QB (that might change but currently, and they don't have a demonstrated good game plan. That means that running back by committee will probably not work out much better than it has over the past couple of years for the Colts.

Also, our owner wants Barkley. He wants his next Edge. Big factor there.

I am with you, brother. I want a complete team with studs at QB, O-line, and on Defense before I want a stud RB.

However, if McDaniels' is our next HC, I see all the factors coming together at Barkley at #3 overall.

Walk Worthy,

I was just pointing out that the Pats did it w/o the stud RB. Do I want the stud RB, you bet I do.

Barlkely IMO, can be something special. But if Colts brass believes that a guy like Michel is just a notch below and a better value, than I would rather go that route.

Really good evaluation of Michel here:https://www.pewterreport.com/cover-3...el-sony-shake/

I really like the way he can make his cuts w/o gearing down.

[VeveJones007]

Originally Posted by YDFL Commish

I was just pointing out that the Pats did it w/o the stud RB. Do I want the stud RB, you bet I do.

Barlkely IMO, can be something special. But if Colts brass believes that a guy like Michel is just a notch below and a better value, than I would rather go that route.

Really good evaluation of Michel here:https://www.pewterreport.com/cover-3...el-sony-shake/

I really like the way he can make his cuts w/o gearing down.

I would much rather have Chubb+Michel than Barkley+best pass rusher available.

[Racehorse]

Originally Posted by sherck

I don't disagree with you; however....

The Cheats have had the luxury of having a top defense for the majority of their run since 2006. This contributes to....

An effective offense centered around a stud QB. Yeah, I hate Tommy Cheater but he is a stud. This is fueled by....

An offensive line that, while not top five, has been solidly good for a long time. I think that Tommy Cheater's quick release and intelligence game plan design does a lot of this but....

Leading to the fact that RB, while getting 63% of the touches, is RARELY the focus of opposing defenses or opposing game plans. Early on, folks game planned to score on the Pats defense. Later, they game planned to stop Tommy Cheater. Rarely, if ever, did they gameplan to stop the run.

The Colts do not have a top defense, they don't have a stud QB (that might change but currently, and they don't have a demonstrated good game plan. That means that running back by committee will probably not work out much better than it has over the past couple of years for the Colts.

Also, our owner wants Barkley. He wants his next Edge. Big factor there.

I am with you, brother. I want a complete team with studs at QB, O-line, and on Defense before I want a stud RB.

However, if McDaniels' is our next HC, I see all the factors coming together at Barkley at #3 overall.

Walk Worthy,

I think much of the angst about our line had to do with how inept the coaching staff/plans were. We could do the quick, short passes the Cheats do, but our plan is to run the WRs all the way down the field, giving opponents a chance to get to whichever QB was under center that game. Moronic! Also, I do not believe any of them ever gave Luck any idea of what he should do better (IOW, developing him) between games/seasons. I think McDaniels would do better at both and a RB like Barkley would make it easier on the line and on Luck. That said, I would love to see us nab a great pass-rusher, if there is actually one in the draft this year. From what I read, there really isn't one. Now, some of that is due to the difference between the college offenses and the NFL offenses, so there may be a guy who has the skill, but never got to use it in college, which means he may slip a round or two.

[1965southpaw]

I am with you, brother. I want a complete team with studs at QB, O-line, and on Defense before I want a stud RB.

However, if McDaniels' is our next HC, I see all the factors coming together at Barkley at #3 overall.

Walk Worthy,[/QUOTE]

If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.......With all due respect Sherck, central to your analysis is the presumption that McDaniels is a slave to one mental model of how to design/run an offense. He very well may be.....I don't know. However, if Ballard is half the leader and assessor of talent that people like Polian purport him to be then I hope that a key criteria to his assessment is finding a leader that understands the long term key to winning is adaptability. It's no different than any other industry......you adapt or quickly become irrelevant. This, I think, was the central failing of Pagano (with all due respect to those that think coaching doesn't matter). He simply wouldn't (or I think couldn't) realize that stubborn enslavement to that "we just do what we do" mentality was a recipe for irrelevance as everyone else (including the AFC South) passes you by. I think the right question to be in for McDaniels is is he capable of flexible thinking?

[VeveJones007]

“Interesting thing @SeniorBowlPhil just told me and @HorowitzJason on @ESPNUonSiriusXM: The Broncos staff requested that Baker Mayfield be placed on their team at the Senior Bowl.“

If he makes a good enough impression, then maybe the Broncos will thin about trading up.

[smitty46953]

I may be wrong but for some reason I get feeling Baker Mayfield might turn out to be Johnny Manziel part 2 ...

[smitty46953]

I don't have a trade chart, but curious since Bills aren't sold on Tyrod Taylor as their QB if they might offer their two first round picks #21 and #22 for our #3 ?

[VeveJones007]

Originally Posted by smitty46953

I don't have a trade chart, but curious since Bills aren't sold on Tyrod Taylor as their QB if they might offer their two first round picks #21 and #22 for our #3 ?

It’s short, according to the chart, by 520 points, which is the equivalent of pick #38. They would need to add a 2nd and a 3rd based on the chart.