2017 Draft Thread

[YDFL Commish]

Originally Posted by Mr. Session

All of these examples of undersized players at the position are of exceptional players.

That doesn't make me feel better, it makes me apprehensive.

Is the tape so great that Reddick looks like a future HOF/All Pro player at the position? I liked his tape but I don't come away feeling that way.

To me he looks like a guy in the right system, with the right coaching, playing his best position and with the right weight and conditioning program, could become a great one.

But that's a lot of if's.

Reddick and Jabril Peppers are kind of wildcards, I love their talent and motors...but dowe have the staff to take them to the next level?

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by Mr. Session

All of these examples of undersized players at the position are of exceptional players.

That doesn't make me feel better, it makes me apprehensive.

Is the tape so great that Reddick looks like a future HOF/All Pro player at the position? I liked his tape but I don't come away feeling that way.

1) Reddick looked like an impact player on all the tape I watched of him. He also didn't seem weak in any area while being used all over the field. He stuck with WRs (albeit collegiate ones) in coverage, typically played his assignments well, showed a great talent for bending the edge, and displayed some pass rush moves that could improve, but weren't completely undeveloped. No one's tape is of a future HOF/All-Pro until they get into the league and prove it, but if you go back and look at the ones who did get there, you'll probably see a lot of tape like what I described above.

2) The point is that his size is not something that eliminates his ability to play 3-4 OLB. Of course people are going to point out the best examples, but that doesn't mean other examples don't exist. Sure, the "prototypical" 3-4 OLB is 6'4" 260, but if you look around the league, a lot of teams that run a 3-4 have OLBs that are closer to 6'2" 250.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by YDFL Commish

To me he looks like a guy in the right system, with the right coaching, playing his best position and with the right weight and conditioning program, could become a great one.

But that's a lot of if's.

Reddick and Jabril Peppers are kind of wildcards, I love their talent and motors...but dowe have the staff to take them to the next level?

The draft is a crapshoot. You could say there are "if"s about just about any player, even Myles Garrett. Typically the player that has the least "if"s about him goes 1.1.

[VeveJones007]

Originally Posted by Mr. Session

All of these examples of undersized players at the position are of exceptional players.

That doesn't make me feel better, it makes me apprehensive.

Is the tape so great that Reddick looks like a future HOF/All Pro player at the position? I liked his tape but I don't come away feeling that way.

Look back to the UKColt post I originally responded to. Due to Reddick's size, UKColt ruled out Reddick as a 3-4 EDGE.

All I did was invalidate the assumption that someone Reddick's size could not succeed at 3-4 EDGE.

[sherck]

PFF Ranked their "Top 100" Draft Prospects today (located here).

In the 1-15 range:
12. Tre'Davious White, CB, LSU
13. Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson
14. Carl Lewson, OLB, Auburn
15. Solomon Thomas, 3-tech DT or 5-tech DE, Stanford
16. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford
17. O.J. Howard, TE, Alabama
18. John Ross, WR, Washington

In the 2-14 range (#46 overall):
43. Caleb Brantley, 3-tech DT, Florida
44. Sidney Jones, CB, Washington
45. Alvin Kamara, RB, Tennessee
46. Justin Evans, S, Texas A&M
47. Takkarist McKinley, OLB, UCLA
48. Quincy Jones, CB, Florida
49. Taylor Moton, OG/OT, Western Michigan

In the 3-16 range (#80 overall):
77. Tanzel Smart, 3-tech DT/5-tech DE, Tulane
78. Carolos Henderson, WR, Louisina Tech
79. Delano Hill, S, Michigan
80. Ryan Anderson, OLB, Alabama
81. Mack Hollins, WR, North Carolina
82. Budda Baker, S, Washington
83. Tanoh Kpassagnon, 3-tech DT/5-tech DE, Villanova

Not that it will work out this way, but give me D-Line Solomon Thomas in the 1st round, CB Sidney Jones in the 2nd round and OLB Ryan Anderson in the 3rd round and I would be thrilled.

Add CB, TE and RB in the 4th round and a NT in the 5th round and call it a draft.

I know that where folks are actually drafted will almost always be very different than were every pundit in the world puts them but that is why mock drafting is SO much fun!

Cheers,

[FatDT]

Good chance Solomon Thomas is gone by our pick. But I'd like to have him on the team.

[sherck]

Originally Posted by FatDT

Good chance Solomon Thomas is gone by our pick. But I'd like to have him on the team.

I don't disagree with you but it has been interesting to see him "sliding" a bit in a lot of mock drafts from a sure-fire top five pick two months ago to a top ten pick last month to a top 15 pick in a few mock drafts over the past couple of weeks.

I honestly don't see him lasting until #15 but there are a lot of guys that "experts" say every year "should" be picked here or there that the NFL ends up disagreeing with.

However, I am working on studying some guys but I am becoming more firmly convinced that there is great value at the bottom of the 1st round to be had and that the Colts could pick up some more picks in the 3rd and 4th round range by moving back and still getting a quality prospect that I like nearly as well (or better) than the guys projected in the mid-round range.

In the end, the draft is a crap-shoot. I hope Ballard picks good ones no matter where we are picking from.

Cheers,

[sherck]

Marrying up two things:

Originally Posted by sherck

However, as a thought exercise:

Indy trades 1-15 to Denver (who is a good team who needs superstars to become great) for 1-20, 3-18 (#82) and 5-34 (#178).

Indy trades 1-20 to Seattle (who is a good team who needs superstars to become great) for 1-26, 3-26 (#90) and 6-26 (#210).

Both those trades have almost exactly the same "trade value" from the NFL trade charts.

Indy now has:

1-26 (#26)

2-14 (#46)

3-16 (#80)
3-18 (#82)
3-26 (#90)

4-15 (#121)
4-31 (#137)
4-38 (#144)

5-14 (#158)
5-34 (#177)

6-26 (#210)

Along with the PFF "Top 100" Draftee ranking chart (located here), we get:

1-26 T.J. Watt, OLB, Wisconsin
The biggest concern with Watt is whether or not he’s a one-year wonder. Physically, though, there’s not much he can’t do. At 6-foot-4, 252 pounds, Watt put up fantastic explosive and change-of-direction numbers at the combine. That meshes with what we saw of him at Wisconsin, where he was arguably the most impressive of anyone in this class at closing on ball carriers in space. He’s still raw as a pass-rusher, as a good deal of his 56 QB pressures a season ago came unblocked, but the ability is there.

2-14 Quincy Wilson, CB, Florida
Wilson didn’t grade as well as the stats would indicate, but he capped his Florida career allowing a passer rating of only 45.8 into his coverage over the last three seasons. He moves well for his size and knows how to play the ball in both press and off coverage. He’ll get beaten at times when trying to press, but there’s a lot to like about his game, and he’s diverse enough to fit multiple schemes.

3-16 Tanzel Smart, 3-tech DT, Tulane
Although shorter than ideal at just a shade over 6-foot, Smart monopolizes that advantage in leverage consistently. Sufficient length offsets his height deficiency significantly. A low center of gravity and powerful arms combine to facilitate probably the best bull-rush in the class. It is a joy to watch Smart tossing and toying with lineman who are helplessly hoping to re-anchor against the tide that is the former Green Wave product. Attempts to blow him off the ball in the ground game are also fruitless. In fact, Smart is much more likely to win his battles against the run. He flashed astounding ability to change direction in the backfield, consistently regaining his balance to fly to the football and generate tackles for loss. Smart could stand to improve as a tackler, but he represents one of the more consistently disruptive interior defenders in the class. (Would allow Anderson to play 3-tech DT or 5-tech DE as scheme required.)

3-18 Delano Hill, S, Michigan
What Hill lacks in flash he makes up for with consistency. He proved at the combine that he has the size and athleticism to translate his game to the NFL (4.47-second 40 at 6-foot-1 and 216 pounds), and his senior year production also bodes well. He allowed just 22 receptions on 40 throws into his coverage last season, and defended a total of seven passes.

3-26 Raekwon McMillan, ILB, Ohio State
Running a 4.61 40 at the combine was critical for Raekwon McMillan, because his play in coverage at Ohio State is likely to leave some NFL teams worried about his viability on third down. He finished his college career in style with 25 stops in his last four games, and is a very good tackler who consistently wraps up. While some teams may like his leadership and production enough to take him early on Day 2, his average change of direction and playing speed, combined with some struggles against blocks, suggests he is a better value toward the end of Day 2 in the third round.

Use our three 4th round picks on CB, RB, TE and our three 5th/6th round picks on NT and depth and we would be cooking on oil.

Anyway, I am sure that Ballard's draft looks nothing like this but....

[[OF NOTE: The only player on this list that can be found to be "rated" wildly different from PFF ratings is that McMillian would be available at the bottom of the 3rd round. Chad Reuter over at NFL.com has him going in the middle of the 2nd round in his 5 round mock. Walter Football has him being draftable anywhere from the 2nd round through the 4th round. However, Walter Football's Mock Draft has him going at 3-15 (#79 overall) so that is within the ball park.]]

Anyway, I want more draft picks!

Cheers,

[sherck]

Okay, last post for a while in the draft thread. I found a 5-round mock on Walter Football that indicates that someone understands the weaknesses of the Colts:

1-15 (#015) ILB Reuban Foster, Alabama
Foster is a vicious hitter with elite playmaking range and an ability to toggle between 225 and 240 pounds. Athleticism gives him cover ability that former teammate Reggie Ragland never possessed. Has Pro Bowl potential as a 3-4 inside linebacker or a 4-3 weak-side linebacker, but concerns over his medical history could be a consideration, according to some teams.

2-14 (#046) OLB Charles Harris, Missouri
High-cut pass rusher with good athleticism but concerns regarding his ability to drop anchor against the run. Ironically, Harris might be best suited as a penetrator which is something he fought against this season. His hands can be improved as pass rush weapons, but he has agility and footwork that can't be taught. Harris can play on the edge in a 4-3 or 3-4 front and should be the next in a line of early contributing defensive ends coming out of Missouri.

3-16 (#080) CB Cameron Sutton, Tennessee
Four-year starter with the fluidity to handle man coverage on the outside, but lacking desired physicality and run-support traits that zone teams covet. Sutton flashed outstanding ball production his first two seasons but saw his per-game production drop since. Could be forced inside due to a lack of size on next level. Punt-return ability could be what gets him on the field first.

4-15 (#121) ILB Anthony Walker, Northwestern
Has packed muscle onto his frame that looks good in the uniform but might be limiting his flexibility and athletic ability. A productive, downhill linebacker who misses too many tackles and struggles as a take-on player. He checks all the desired boxes for football and personal character and can be counted on to do what it takes to improve his game. He could become a decent starting linebacker within his first few years.

4-31 (#137) RB Samaje Perine, OklahomaPerine is a physical runner who can create additional yardage through power and can be a complimentary "banger" for a team who already has a slasher. Perine doesn't have the burst or play speed to be a dynamic lead back, but he can handle a heavy workload if needed and he should become an immediate short-yardage and goal-line option.

4-38 (#144) CB Rasul Douglas, West Virginia
Douglas has rare size for the position and his 2016 interception total will add to the level of intrigue for NFL teams. There is no doubting Douglas' ability to make plays on the ball when he's in position, but his lack of long speed and closing burst could make his big senior season an anomaly. Douglas is a zone corner with press and trail ability but needs to run a reasonable time at the combine to solidify his draft slotting. (Note: Ran a 4.59 at combine.)

5-14 (#158) NT Josh Tupou, Colorado
Does one thing and one thing only -- eat up space. Doesn't have enough reactive quickness or even functional movement to find himself in many plays that aren't right at him, but his size and anchor gives him a shot with a team who values pure girth for early downs.

Foster in the first and Harris in the 2nd round are probably stretches for being available but this kind of draft could really help the Colts.

Cheers,

[njcoltfan]

Originally Posted by sherck

PFF Ranked their "Top 100" Draft Prospects today (located here).

In the 1-15 range:
12. Tre'Davious White, CB, LSU
13. Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson
14. Carl Lewson, OLB, Auburn
15. Solomon Thomas, 3-tech DT or 5-tech DE, Stanford
16. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford
17. O.J. Howard, TE, Alabama
18. John Ross, WR, Washington

In the 2-14 range (#46 overall):
43. Caleb Brantley, 3-tech DT, Florida
44. Sidney Jones, CB, Washington
45. Alvin Kamara, RB, Tennessee
46. Justin Evans, S, Texas A&M
47. Takkarist McKinley, OLB, UCLA
48. Quincy Jones, CB, Florida
49. Taylor Moton, OG/OT, Western Michigan

In the 3-16 range (#80 overall):
77. Tanzel Smart, 3-tech DT/5-tech DE, Tulane
78. Carolos Henderson, WR, Louisina Tech
79. Delano Hill, S, Michigan
80. Ryan Anderson, OLB, Alabama
81. Mack Hollins, WR, North Carolina
82. Budda Baker, S, Washington
83. Tanoh Kpassagnon, 3-tech DT/5-tech DE, Villanova

Not that it will work out this way, but give me D-Line Solomon Thomas in the 1st round, CB Sidney Jones in the 2nd round and OLB Ryan Anderson in the 3rd round and I would be thrilled.

Add CB, TE and RB in the 4th round and a NT in the 5th round and call it a draft.

I know that where folks are actually drafted will almost always be very different than were every pundit in the world puts them but that is why mock drafting is SO much fun!

Cheers,

I'll take Thomas, McKinley and Baker and be thrilled !!!!