Ballard’s draft record

[ChaosTheory]

Originally Posted by Oldcolt

If Ballard had hit on a 7th round draft pick like Purdy we wouldn't be having this conversation (and I know it was lucky but you have to draft the guy to get lucky). Apparently Lynch knew QB was essential and moved heaven and earth to try to find one. He missed on the first rounder but kept looking and found one.

You don't "hit" on a 7th round QB. You get a knock at the door and find out you unknowingly had a billionaire uncle who left you an inheritance. Brock Purdy is the goddamn epitome of QB being a crapshoot and fans' outcome bias. I mean, if some GMs scout QBs well and some don't... how do you pass on a franchise QB 7 times in the same draft before finally taking him?

Lynch dumped three 1st-rounders for Trey Lance who puts to shame any possible "bust" label you could hope to put on Anthony Richardson. If Purdy wasn't a winning lottery ticket, Lynch would've had torches and pitchforks out for him instead of being viewed as a pretty good GM... which he is.

[Oldcolt]

Originally Posted by ChaosTheory

You don't "hit" on a 7th round QB. You get a knock at the door and find out you unknowingly had a billionaire uncle who left you an inheritance. Brock Purdy is the goddamn epitome of QB being a crapshoot and fans' outcome bias. I mean, if some GMs scout QBs well and some don't... how do you pass on a franchise QB 7 times in the same draft before finally taking him?

Lynch dumped three 1st-rounders for Trey Lance who puts to shame any possible "bust" label you could hope to put on Anthony Richardson. If Purdy wasn't a winning lottery ticket, Lynch would've had torches and pitchforks out for him instead of being viewed as a pretty good GM... which he is.

So if I understand your position, Ballard is a genius because HE is so good at 'hitting' those middle round picks like Raimann but any other GM is just a lucky bastard. Ok let's hire a lucky bastard then. My bottom line is that Lynch has produced a winning team and Ballard hasn't. Make all the excuse you want, Ballard's your boy you are free to love on him. And as far as AR is concerned you obviously don't read my posts. I wanted AR over DJ and still do. I have zero faith in DJ ever leading this team to anything. If AR is a bust, in my opinion, it is mostly do to the Colts fucking up his development. Now he may never play again due to a freak accident, I get that.

You are correct that if Lynch hadn't gotten Purdy he might have been fired. But the reality is he did get Purdy (and had the foresight to have a coach in place that actually knew how to develop him, also part of a GMs job. Ballards initial genius move was McDaniels) and they are still playing football. It's amazing how some GMs are just so lucky. Again, wish we had one

[ChaosTheory]

Originally Posted by Oldcolt

So if I understand your position, Ballard is a genius because HE is so good at 'hitting' those middle round picks like Raimann but any other GM is just a lucky bastard. Ok let's hire a lucky bastard then. My bottom line is that Lynch has produced a winning team and Ballard hasn't. Make all the excuse you want, Ballard's your boy you are free to love on him. And as far as AR is concerned you obviously don't read my posts. I wanted AR over DJ and still do. I have zero faith in DJ ever leading this team to anything. If AR is a bust, in my opinion, it is mostly do to the Colts fucking up his development. Now he may never play again due to a freak accident, I get that.

You are correct that if Lynch hadn't gotten Purdy he might have been fired. But the reality is he did get Purdy (and had the foresight to have a coach in place that actually knew how to develop him, also part of a GMs job. Ballards initial genius move was McDaniels) and they are still playing football. It's amazing how some GMs are just so lucky. Again, wish we had one

No, you might not understand my position. You guys are so quick to jump to, "Oh, you don't want him fired? So I guess he's just Jesus Christ Incarnate. Let me know how his toes taste."

My mentioning of AR had nothing to do with your post—it was to emphasize the comparison to the Trey Lance situation. Jury is still out on AR as far as I'm concerned, but many are calling him an outright bust. If he's a bust, it still pales in comparison to Trey Lance and his exorbitant price tag. But Mr. Irrelevant made the Trey Lance situation irrelevant.

Originally Posted by Oldcolt

You are correct that if Lynch hadn't gotten Purdy he might have been fired. But the reality is he did get Purdy

This is precisely outcome bias. John Lynch is a good GM and built a good roster. If Brock Purdy wasn't a miracle and the 49ers were in QB purgatory for a while... some people would say he's fireable and some people would say he's still a good GM—he took a swing and missed, but we still want him building the surrounding cast when QB is resolved.

Seems like you'd be in the former, I'd be in the latter.

---

As far as comparing picks like Raimann to Purdy... sure, you can say there's a stain of luck on any non-1st round draft pick who turns out to be upper echelon at his position. But this is a category error.

QB is unique. It is inherently the highest variance position in the game. 7th round QB's NEVER become starting, franchise QBs. But at the same, I think something like 60% of 1st round QBs since 2000 are busts. Less than a quarter we would say lived up and became good/great QBs and the remaining quarter we would probably call "serviceable starters" or something.

A 3rd round OL has far less variance. Mid-round OL hits are common enough that they reflect scouting skill and system fit. They are repeatable which is why you can multiple instances of Ballard revamping the OL producing a top unit.

Brock Purdy is not repeatable.

[Oldcolt]

Apologize for misinterpreting what you meant. Purdy didnt just jump out of the sky a 7th round pick ready to start. He had to be developed and Lynch had the correct people there to develop him. Colts, not so much. Ballard hits on some middle round player who become good. To win consistently you need to hit on your first and second round players (players that can be difference makers), and he has been terrible at this as of late. Since the Nelson pick I cannot name one upper echelon player (all-pro etc) except maybe JT. A guard and a running back in 8 years. Not going to win much with that. It has been 9 years of mostly this mediocre shit, maybe year 10 will bring us some respite. I hope.

[Racehorse]

Originally Posted by Oldcolt

Apologize for misinterpreting what you meant. Purdy didnt just jump out of the sky a 7th round pick ready to start. He had to be developed and Lynch had the correct people there to develop him. Colts, not so much. Ballard hits on some middle round player who become good. To win consistently you need to hit on your first and second round players (players that can be difference makers), and he has been terrible at this as of late. Since the Nelson pick I cannot name one upper echelon player (all-pro etc) except maybe JT. A guard and a running back in 8 years. Not going to win much with that. It has been 9 years of mostly this mediocre shit, maybe year 10 will bring us some respite. I hope.

He also hit on Darius Leonard, a true stud at LB. However, he had to have back surgery a few years in, and it ended his effectiveness. Had he been fortunate enough to have avoided surgery, we would not be discussing Franklin's ineptitude at LB, because he would still be holding down the fort there.

[Oldcolt]

How the fuck am I dying on Lynch's hill? It was a one off on Purdy and now I'm in love with the guy? Never heard of really before all of this crap discussion about Ballard I've gotten myself into. I'm not a Ballard hater. I am a Colt fan who is sick of this mediocrity and have come to the conclusion that the longer Ballard stays the longer we will be mediocre. it isn't an unreasonable view.

[Kray007]

Originally Posted by Oldcolt

How the fuck am I dying on Lynch's hill? It was a one off on Purdy and now I'm in love with the guy? Never heard of really before all of this crap discussion about Ballard I've gotten myself into. I'm not a Ballard hater. I am a Colt fan who is sick of this mediocrity and have come to the conclusion that the longer Ballard stays the longer we will be mediocre. it isn't an unreasonable view.

Sorry, but when you go from dissing Ballard’s drafting skills…which I disagree with by the way…to lauding Lynch, I make assumptions.

Glad I was wrong.

[Kray007]

Originally Posted by Oldcolt

So if I understand your position, Ballard is a genius because HE is so good at 'hitting' those middle round picks like Raimann but any other GM is just a lucky bastard. Ok let's hire a lucky bastard then. My bottom line is that Lynch has produced a winning team and Ballard hasn't. Make all the excuse you want, Ballard's your boy you are free to love on him. And as far as AR is concerned you obviously don't read my posts. I wanted AR over DJ and still do. I have zero faith in DJ ever leading this team to anything. If AR is a bust, in my opinion, it is mostly do to the Colts fucking up his development. Now he may never play again due to a freak accident, I get that.

You are correct that if Lynch hadn't gotten Purdy he might have been fired. But the reality is he did get Purdy (and had the foresight to have a coach in place that actually knew how to develop him, also part of a GMs job. Ballards initial genius move was McDaniels) and they are still playing football. It's amazing how some GMs are just so lucky. Again, wish we had one

John lynch is, frankly, an odd hill on which to take a stand on draft acumen. Since 2020, he’s only drafted 2 pro bowlers, none in the 1st round, or the 2nd or 3rd, either.

This year, they sent 4 guys to the pro bowl.

They drafted Kittle back in 2017
Signed Juszczyk as a free agent.
Traded for McCaffrey and Trent Williams.

[omahacolt]

Originally Posted by Kray007

John lynch is, frankly, an odd hill on which to take a stand on draft acumen. Since 2020, he’s only drafted 2 pro bowlers, none in the 1st round, or the 2nd or 3rd, either.

This year, they sent 4 guys to the pro bowl.

They drafted Kittle back in 2017
Signed Juszczyk as a free agent.
Traded for McCaffrey and Trent Williams.

the pro bowl is fucking meaningless and has been for years.

[omahacolt]

I get why people would want to keep Ballard. he is likable and does a decent job of finding guys in the draft that are good.


he doesnt find guys that are great. he has mishandled the QB spot at almost every turn. he is reluctant to fill holes through free agency. he dumped a ton of resources into the dline and the dline fucking sucks.


the bad outweighs the good imo and the results tell me I am right. if you can't get QB, oline and pass rush squared away, you shouldn't be running a team. period