I'm officially on the Stroud bandwagon

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by Chromeburn

Not when that pick could be a better QB next year. I would put Williams and Maye above both these guys. Then you have a host of other QBs with potential that could rise into the top five. I would stay put or deal around that 2024 1st. Even if you hit on your QB that pick could be worth a lot in trade material. And it’s no guarantee that is their QB 1. As I said each of these guys has positive and negative traits. Staying put, the very worst scenario here is they get a cornerstone defensive player.

Besides when was the last time three QBs went in the top three? I think it will be like 2020 draft ultimately.

Yeah I don't buy that. Everyone will find something to nitpick about Caleb Williams by then (here's a great one: he's a Lincoln Riley QB). Drake Maye brings visions of Mitch Trubisky and Sam Howell to mind. Prospect fatigue is real and the shiny new toy will always be the walking red flag by the time their draft cycle comes around. People invented that Stroud can't produce off schedule because they needed to have a negative. He looks a lot like Aaron Rodgers off schedule to me.

And to be clear, I think Stroud will be Ballard's clear QB1. He has franchise QB upside, low bust risk, all the physical traits Ballard would look for in a QB, and I've heard and seen nothing but positive about his mental makeup. Young's size will scare Ballard, he'll put on tape of Levis and get Carson Wentz flashbacks, and he'll see Richardson as the completely raw ball of physical traits that he is.

[IndyNorm]

Originally Posted by Dam8610;259819[B

]Yeah I don't buy that. Everyone will find something to nitpick about Caleb Williams by then (here's a great one: he's a Lincoln Riley QB). Drake Maye brings visions of Mitch Trubisky and Sam Howell to mind.[/B] Prospect fatigue is real and the shiny new toy will always be the walking red flag by the time their draft cycle comes around. People invented that Stroud can't produce off schedule because they needed to have a negative. He looks a lot like Aaron Rodgers off schedule to me.

And to be clear, I think Stroud will be Ballard's clear QB1. He has franchise QB upside, low bust risk, all the physical traits Ballard would look for in a QB, and I've heard and seen nothing but positive about his mental makeup. Young's size will scare Ballard, he'll put on tape of Levis and get Carson Wentz flashbacks, and he'll see Richardson as the completely raw ball of physical traits that he is.

You know saying Williams being a Lincoln Riley QB or that Maye is like Trubisky or Howell (not sure why you dragged him into this) is the exact same thing as saying we shouldn't draft Stroud b/c he's a Ryan Day/OSU QB right? Only Riley's QBs have had a lot more success in the NFL than any Ryan Day/OSU QBs.

Also, Ballard has shown that he values traits well above a player's film and/or production. At least at other positions he has (DE, WR). Hopefully he views QBs differently or else I'm afraid we'll end up with Richardson.

[Oldcolt]

Drafting a qb is a crap shoot, just like getting the correct coach. Nobody has any idea who will be great,if anyone, with this class of qbs. Unless it is someone like Elway, Manning or Luck a lot will have to do with the players and system we put around him. None of these guys seem like they are anything special. I hope we stay put and take whomever falls to us and build a decent coaching staff and line around him. Mostly I hope we get lucky

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

You know saying Williams being a Lincoln Riley QB or that Maye is like Trubisky or Howell (not sure why you dragged him into this) is the exact same thing as saying we shouldn't draft Stroud b/c he's a Ryan Day/OSU QB right? Only Riley's QBs have had a lot more success in the NFL than any Ryan Day/OSU QBs.

Also, Ballard has shown that he values traits well above a player's film and/or production. At least at other positions he has (DE, WR). Hopefully he views QBs differently or else I'm afraid we'll end up with Richardson.

No, saying that Lincoln Riley QBs have struggled in the NFL is not the same as saying that OSU has not sent many QBs to the NFL. Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Spencer Rattler, and now Caleb Williams. Mayfield and Murray were both the #1 overall pick in their respective draft class. Mayfield was definitely a disappointment for the Browns, and the Cardinals hesitantly and almost begrudgingly resigned Kyler Murray, originally putting a film study clause in his contract, he seems disappointing as well. Hurts was an MVP candidate this year, but I'm inclined to believe that has more to do with an incredibly talented supporting cast and fantastic injury luck than it does with Hurts being an elite QB. The jury is definitely still out on Hurts. Rattler faded into obscurity after looking like a future #1 pick for a time, and did nothing to re-establish his draft value away from Lincoln Riley.

As far as Maye goes, I suppose it's fair to not link Trubisky and Howell to him, as they were Larry Fedora QBs, but Mack Brown QBs don't inspire much more confidence. Vince Young and who? Colt McCoy? Not exactly world beaters.

As for Ryan Day QBs, that Burrow guy is doing pretty okay, and the Bears don't seem to want to get rid of Justin Fields in favor of one of this year's QBs, despite the current front office not being the one that drafted him. Realistically, Fields is the only true test case of Ryan Day QBs at this point, and the jury is still out on him.

All that said, my point was more that Caleb Williams and Drake Maye are the shiny new toys right now. They're being talked about now the way CJ Stroud and Bryce Young were being talked about this time last year. Prospect fatigue is real, and you can expect it to set in with anyone, especially QBs. People start finding negative things about them just to stop having to talk about them. Don't be surprised if at this time next year, we're talking about the high risk, non-franchise QB prospects that are Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, but don't worry, the shiny new toys of the 2025 draft class will save us all.

Regarding Ballard's evaluation style, he does value traits and athleticism at most positions, but when he's drafting high, he tends to take players that have the film to match the traits they display on the field. If he was going to draft an Anthony Richardson type, he'd do it in Round 2 or 3, not in the top 5 of the draft. Furthermore, we can look at the 2 QBs Ballard has drafted to get some insight as to what he values at the position, Jacob Eason and Sam Ehlinger. Eason had a cannon arm, good accuracy and ball placement, not much athleticism, even less pocket presence, and needed to learn how to throw a touch pass. Ehlinger had a noodle arm, great short and intermediate accuracy, good athleticism, decent pocket presence, and knew how to vary the speed of the balls that his limited arm could throw. These were also developmental QBs drafted in the 4th and 6th rounds, respectively, but what I can gather from it is Ballard definitely values accuracy and ball placement, he probably values arm strength a bit higher than he does athleticism, but I also think he values pocket presence and the ability to escape and make a play pretty highly, because he only drafted Eason in Round 4 despite publicly saying he had a higher grade on him, and he drafted Ehlinger, who most had as undraftable that year. Stroud and Young are pretty even in all of those categories, which is where you get to the physical traits, and Stroud wins out because he's a legitimate 6'3" and Young is an illegitimate 6'0" (I'd be more surprised if his measurement came in at 6'0" than if his measurement came in at 5'9"). I could be completely wrong, but I'd be shocked if the Colts have any interest in any QB that isn't Stroud or Young. Will we hear a lot that that is the case? Probably, but this is draft season. If Ballard said the sky was blue and water was wet, I'd check the veracity of both statements until April 30.

[apballin]

I’ll say the recent path of success in college and showing up in big games, Lawrence, Tua, Hurts, and Burrow seems to be a strong sign of success at the next level so Stroud is on that path… now the question is will he be there at 4? And does Irsay love him or does he want the blue collar gritty guy Levis?

[IndyNorm]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

No, saying that Lincoln Riley QBs have struggled in the NFL is not the same as saying that OSU has not sent many QBs to the NFL. Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Spencer Rattler, and now Caleb Williams. Mayfield and Murray were both the #1 overall pick in their respective draft class. Mayfield was definitely a disappointment for the Browns, and the Cardinals hesitantly and almost begrudgingly resigned Kyler Murray, originally putting a film study clause in his contract, he seems disappointing as well. Hurts was an MVP candidate this year, but I'm inclined to believe that has more to do with an incredibly talented supporting cast and fantastic injury luck than it does with Hurts being an elite QB. The jury is definitely still out on Hurts. Rattler faded into obscurity after looking like a future #1 pick for a time, and did nothing to re-establish his draft value away from Lincoln Riley.

As far as Maye goes, I suppose it's fair to not link Trubisky and Howell to him, as they were Larry Fedora QBs, but Mack Brown QBs don't inspire much more confidence. Vince Young and who? Colt McCoy? Not exactly world beaters.

As for Ryan Day QBs, that Burrow guy is doing pretty okay, and the Bears don't seem to want to get rid of Justin Fields in favor of one of this year's QBs, despite the current front office not being the one that drafted him. Realistically, Fields is the only true test case of Ryan Day QBs at this point, and the jury is still out on him.

Stating that the jury it still out on Hurts is by far one of the dumbest statements ever posted on this board. In his 2nd season of starting he has his team in the Super Bowl and came in 2nd in the MVP voting, but yeah the jury is definitely still out on him. It's probably an even dumber statement than you still claiming that the Jagoffs drafting Trevor Lawrence was some giant mistake.

Mayfield and Murray are going to struggle in the NFL b/c of their size (which is why most of us don't want the Colts to draft Young), especially Murray. And to be fair to Mayfield, he's had more success than either of Ryan Day's QBs in the NFL, who are Haskins and Fields. Joe Burrow isn't a Ryan Day QB. He spent 1 season as a backup with Day as his OC. If we're handing out NFL success kudos to QBs college coaches then credit for Burrow needs to go to Ed Orgeron and Steve Ensminger.

[ChaosTheory]

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

In his 2nd season of starting he has his team in the Super Bowl and came in 2nd in the MVP voting, but yeah the jury is definitely still out on him.

Devil's advocate:

Colin Kaepernick was also in his 2nd season starting, 3rd season overall when he led a loaded 49ers team to 12-4 and a trip to the Super Bowl. He got figured out and was 11-24 after that.

Not saying Hurts will follow suit, but interesting.

[IndyNorm]

Originally Posted by ChaosTheory

Devil's advocate:

Colin Kaepernick was also in his 2nd season starting, 3rd season overall when he led a loaded 49ers team to 12-4 and a trip to the Super Bowl. He got figured out and was 11-24 after that.

Not saying Hurts will follow suit, but interesting.

That's a reasonable hypothetical to throw out there. I don't think it will happen to Hurts, but players do regress and/or sometimes unable to adjust when the league adapts to them like Kaepernick.

But that's not what Dam is saying. Dam is saying that Hurts really isn't any good and the only reason why he's having any success is b/c of the talent around him. The thing is though for QBs to succeed in the NFL they have to have talent around them, especially early on. Using Dam's logic the only reason why Burrow has been so successful is b/c the Bungles are absolutely loaded at receiver, and I can go on and on w/ the examples of this included Peyton.

[Dam8610]

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

Stating that the jury it still out on Hurts is by far one of the dumbest statements ever posted on this board. In his 2nd season of starting he has his team in the Super Bowl and came in 2nd in the MVP voting, but yeah the jury is definitely still out on him.

The only QB who it could be even argued had a more talented receiver room backing him up than Hurts is Tua Tagovailoa, and while WR1 and WR2 are a dead heat between those teams, I'd take the Eagles 3-5 on the strength of Zach Pascal alone. Then they had an elite when healthy RB and TE who for the first or second time in their careers were healthy for most if not all of the season. I'm not confident all those factors align again for Hurts, and without them, I'd expect him to regress back to 2021 form.

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

It's probably an even dumber statement than you still claiming that the Jagoffs drafting Trevor Lawrence was some giant mistake.

If the Colts play this offseason right, they will put Lawrence and the Jaguars in the rearview for the next decade and expose Lawrence for the fraud he is. He's getting by on athleticism right now, but he still can't make a full field read, or an anticipation throw. Even an offensive genius like Doug Pederson can't hide that forever, and smart teams will always exploit it. I'll believe Lawrence will be anything more than an NFL footnote when I see him consistently make full field reads. The invented criticism of Stroud that he only does well in the structure of the offense applies in reverse to Lawrence. Trevor Lawrence does his best work when the play breaks down and he's playing backyard scramble drill football. He can't operate within the structure of the offense currently, unless the structure of the offense is incredibly simplified for an NFL offense.

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

Mayfield and Murray are going to struggle in the NFL b/c of their size (which is why most of us don't want the Colts to draft Young), especially Murray.

Ah, so your criticism of Caleb Williams will be his lack of height, since he's 6'1" same as Mayfield. Fair enough.

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

And to be fair to Mayfield, he's had more success than either of Ryan Day's QBs in the NFL, who are Haskins and Fields.

You should look at Fields's 2022 again, especially if you truly believe Jalen Hurts is an elite MVP caliber QB rather than a lucky fluke. Also bear in mind, 2022 Fields didn't have a tenth of the supporting cast that 2021 Hurts did, let alone 2022 Hurts.

And as for Haskins, nobody but the Commanders thought Haskins would be a quality NFL starter, and they deluded themselves into it as badly as the Vikings deluded themselves into believing Christian Ponder could be the guy.

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

Joe Burrow isn't a Ryan Day QB. He spent 1 season as a backup with Day as his OC. If we're handing out NFL success kudos to QBs college coaches then credit for Burrow needs to go to Ed Orgeron and Steve Ensminger.

That was mostly tongue in cheek, I think Ryan Day's developmental ability for QBs should primarily be judged by the success of Fields and Stroud over the next 5 years.

Originally Posted by ChaosTheory

Devil's advocate:

Colin Kaepernick was also in his 2nd season starting, 3rd season overall when he led a loaded 49ers team to 12-4 and a trip to the Super Bowl. He got figured out and was 11-24 after that.

Not saying Hurts will follow suit, but interesting.

Kaepernick is actually a very intriguing comparison for Hurts, and a great illustration of what I was trying to say.

Originally Posted by nate505

No kidding. At that point I'd rather just see them draft Levis or Anthony Richardson. Not that I prefer those two over Stroud or Young, but I would prefer either of them over giving up the farm for Stroud or Young.

Why? I gave a very detailed explanation of why I chose Taylor and Leonard, and I honestly believe it to be savvy roster building, divesting of large investments in assets at non-premium positions, keeping all future draft capital in house, and allowing for roster and cap flexibility moving forward. An example of this would be that trading Leonard would give the Colts the cap room to retain Bobby Okereke, who is otherwise almost certain to walk in free agency. Okereke would give you about 80% of Leonard's production at about 50% of the price. In comparison to Matt Miller's trade, it's a lot of value to give up, but in comparison to even Brett Kollman's trade, it's a better value for the Colts.

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

That's a reasonable hypothetical to throw out there. I don't think it will happen to Hurts, but players do regress and/or sometimes unable to adjust when the league adapts to them like Kaepernick.

Which is exactly what I was saying, making it odd that you agreed with that poster, but disagreed with me.

Originally Posted by IndyNorm

But that's not what Dam is saying. Dam is saying that Hurts really isn't any good and the only reason why he's having any success is b/c of the talent around him. The thing is though for QBs to succeed in the NFL they have to have talent around them, especially early on. Using Dam's logic the only reason why Burrow has been so successful is b/c the Bungles are absolutely loaded at receiver, and I can go on and on w/ the examples of this included Peyton.

You clearly misunderstood my point. I don't think Hurts is a bad QB, I think he's about league average, and that with normal injury luck instead of the incredible, statistics defying injury luck the Eagles had this year, would put him in that tier instead of the elite tier people want to ascribe to him.

There's also a key difference in Burrow and Manning vs. Hurts in terms of the talent around them, especially at WR. Manning made his WRs. Marvin Harrison was talented before Manning, but never would've reached the elite heights he did without Manning. Reggie Wayne looked like a bust in his first two seasons, Manning worked with him and turned him into a Hall of famer. For Burrow, I'd make a similar argument. Ja'Marr Chase and Burrow came into their own together at LSU before being reunited in the NFL. Tee Higgins was a rookie in the same year as Burrow, and they've developed together. Tyler Boyd was good before Burrow, and has still had success in a diminished role due to the emergence of Chase and Higgins.

Hurts, on the other hand, had little to nothing to do with the development of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. A.J. Brown was traded for in this year's draft and has lived up to the $100 million contract extension he received to this point. DeVonta Smith won the Heisman as a WR because he was so good and was drafted 6th overall in his draft. He came in and was productive from Day 1, and he and Hurts never worked together until they were in the NFL.

[Chromeburn]

Originally Posted by Dam8610

Yeah I don't buy that. Everyone will find something to nitpick about Caleb Williams by then (here's a great one: he's a Lincoln Riley QB). Drake Maye brings visions of Mitch Trubisky and Sam Howell to mind. Prospect fatigue is real and the shiny new toy will always be the walking red flag by the time their draft cycle comes around. People invented that Stroud can't produce off schedule because they needed to have a negative. He looks a lot like Aaron Rodgers off schedule to me.

And to be clear, I think Stroud will be Ballard's clear QB1. He has franchise QB upside, low bust risk, all the physical traits Ballard would look for in a QB, and I've heard and seen nothing but positive about his mental makeup. Young's size will scare Ballard, he'll put on tape of Levis and get Carson Wentz flashbacks, and he'll see Richardson as the completely raw ball of physical traits that he is.

Nah, they’re universally agreed upon as better picks. Even if it isn’t a QB, it will likely be a high pick and the number of QBs will drive other talent down in the draft. I wouldn’t trade it.