General off-season news thread

[rcubed]

Originally Posted by rm1369

To me what you see as the minimum is absolutely crazy, but I fear it’s exactly what Ballard may do. I’m afraid he’s going to try to find the big win with little risk. He’s going to draft someone with all the physical tools you’d want (like Love) and count on Reich to develop him. If it works then great! But I doubt it does and I think it will just continue to string out the rebuild. I don’t think you can play the same games at QB as he has at some of the other positions. I also disagree that you can move on after a year or two as easily as he did with Basham. A developmental QB requires the full dedication and backing of the entire organization. It’s both the hardest and most important position in sports. It’s just not the same as drafting a project DE or DT.

yeah, but what are the options?

1. Move up big to get one of the top QBs (one of which has major injury concerns)
2. Draft a QB within a couple draft slots of 13, which will more than likely be in the 'developmental' category.
3. Free agent, of which there are not great choices and certainly none that seem like a long term solution.
4. Go full tank and see what you get next draft.
5. just roll with current QBs and see what happens next year


1 is probably not happening, we would have to give up too many picks and we need lots of help in other areas.
3 doesnt seem like a good choice. maybe bridgewater for two years? might as well keep brissett.
4 probably doesnt happen as the rest of the team is good enough not to get us a top pick

so that leaves...
2. draft a QB, brissett starts next year. you have a year to develop and determine what you got. new QB either makes it or doesnt and you start again in a couple years.

or

5. status quo.

[rm1369]

Originally Posted by rcubed

yeah, but what are the options?

1. Move up big to get one of the top QBs (one of which has major injury concerns)
2. Draft a QB within a couple draft slots of 13, which will more than likely be in the 'developmental' category.
3. Free agent, of which there are not great choices and certainly none that seem like a long term solution.
4. Go full tank and see what you get next draft.
5. just roll with current QBs and see what happens next year


1 is probably not happening, we would have to give up too many picks and we need lots of help in other areas.
3 doesnt seem like a good choice. maybe bridgewater for two years? might as well keep brissett.
4 probably doesnt happen as the rest of the team is good enough not to get us a top pick

so that leaves...
2. draft a QB, brissett starts next year. you have a year to develop and determine what you got. new QB either makes it or doesnt and you start again in a couple years.

or

5. status quo.

If the goal is Super Bowls and not just being a decent / to good team then the only viable options to me are 1, 4/5. Either you take the first option and you go get Tua (or Herbert) if you believe in him or you push the decision to next year. That doesn’t necessarily mean you have to tank, but I don’t think you try to half ass it. If I couldn’t get it solved this year with someone I truly believe in then I’d look to move at least 1 possibly 2 of this years top 3 picks into next year so that I have ammunition when the time comes. Both of those 2nd round picks are worth a 1st next year. And #34 in particular is typically highly sought after. I’d rather do that than waste a top 45 pick on someone at QB I don’t fully believe in.

I suppose it’s always possible that they truly value someone like Love, Eason, or Fromm over a Tua or Herbert. If that’s the case and they think they can stay at 13 or 34 and get them then great. But they need to be right and really believe he’s better than the other consensus top guys. If he’s the 4th guy on their board and they still think he can be a franchise guy then I’d say their evaluation process is suspect and likely being influenced by need.

[Chaka]

Originally Posted by rcubed

yeah, but what are the options?

1. Move up big to get one of the top QBs (one of which has major injury concerns)
2. Draft a QB within a couple draft slots of 13, which will more than likely be in the 'developmental' category.
3. Free agent, of which there are not great choices and certainly none that seem like a long term solution.
4. Go full tank and see what you get next draft.
5. just roll with current QBs and see what happens next year


1 is probably not happening, we would have to give up too many picks and we need lots of help in other areas.
3 doesnt seem like a good choice. maybe bridgewater for two years? might as well keep brissett.
4 probably doesnt happen as the rest of the team is good enough not to get us a top pick

so that leaves...
2. draft a QB, brissett starts next year. you have a year to develop and determine what you got. new QB either makes it or doesnt and you start again in a couple years.

or

5. status quo.

I just don’t think 5 is a likely option, and here’s why – what would make the Colts think that next year is going to be any better for us than this year? Why would that be any less risky than this year, when everything is already positioned properly? I don’t think we are going to be materially worse next year with Brissett, and when our players return from injury and the young guys have another year under their belt. And maybe we’ll be better, possibly even a playoff team as crazy as that might seem. So would we need to extend Brissett again to make sure the QB drafted next year doesn’t have to start right away?

Just reading the tea leaves like everyone else, but this year seems to be the year to draft a QB. And I’ll go further and say that may not be by accident.

[Puck]

So lets say we stay with JB/Kelly one more yr.

A kid to watch for next yr is Jamie Newman. Doubt we'll be bad enough for Lawrence . But Newman could be someone to be considered.

[rcubed]

Originally Posted by rm1369

I agree that if that guy is there then this year is the perfect year to make the move. But I also don’t believe you settle and draft someone just because Brissett isn’t the guy. To me if you have more than 2 or 3 guys max rated as franchise caliber then you are probably lying to yourself based on need. At QB you can’t afford to talk yourselves into someone just because he’s obtainable and you have a need.

agree. its perfect time to draft a QB for the future. but as you accurately pointed out, if you dont believe one from this years crop isnt the long term solution then pass and try again next year. ballard isnt drafting QBs with a first round pick two years in a row. if someone is drafted this year he will be given several years before a change were to be made.

[Ironshaft]

Originally Posted by rm1369

The Colts don’t just need an improvement at QB, they need a franchise QB. There is no need to draft anyone that you don’t believe with a high degree of confidence can be that guy. You don’t draft Eason in the 2nd and then draft someone else next year. If you draft him then you are investing several years into developing him.

Ballard needs to identify the one or two guys in this draft he’s willing to stake his job on and go get one of them. Or take a DT or OT (maybe WR I guess) at 13 and look to push at least one of the 2nd rounders into the future so he has ammo to go get the guy next year. Trading this years number one for ammo next year works to I suppose. But you don’t just take a QB high and then plan to try again next year. Whoever you draft is your guy for at least 3 years IMO.

(To be clear - I’m not suggesting Ballard will or even should be fired if his QB doesn’t pan out, but it’s simply reality that how he handles the QB position will have more impact on his success or failure than any other single decision he makes)

That is the interesting option to use the #34 pick with.

That pick could be seen by a lot of teams as pure gold if "their" guy whom they were sure was a 1st round pick is still on the board at the end of day one.

Much like when we traded our next year 1st round pick for Tony Ugoh, someone who is likely to end up with a top half 1st round pick next season might be willing to give it to us for their guy this year.

Ending up 2020 with two top half 1st round picks is a really attractive place to be if you want to go TL shopping. Both your 1st round picks and a future 2nd for the #1 overall? Its possible, it depends on how far down the board you are.

[Ironshaft]

Not trying to say that this is the silver bullet, but...

2019 / 70.4% completion / 4,054 yards / 7.9 ypa / 21 TD / 08 INT / 100.8 QBR
2018 / 68.9% completion / 4,049 yards / 7.3 ypa / 19 TD / 10 INT / 93.9 QBR
2017 / 62.7% completion / 3,496 yards / 6.8 ypa / 22 TD / 13 INT / 86.4 QBR

2019 / 60.8% completion / 2,942 yards / 6.6 ypa / 18 TD / 06 INT / 88.0 QBR
2017 / 58.8% completion / 3,098 yards / 6.6 ypa / 13 TD / 07 INT / 81.7 QBR

Darek Carr (top stat lines) will be 29 for the 2020 season
Jacoby Brisset (bottom stat lines) will be 27 for most of the 2020 season

All stats are trending up for Carr except number of TDs thrown over the past three years. You could almost say the same for JB but his yards per attempt did not change from 2017 to 2019.

Bridgewater does not have enough snaps in 2017 - 2019 to make a good comparison. Sure, he played GREAT in 2019 (3 games over 70% completion, 4:1 TD to INT ratio, 99.1 QBR but I am not sold on paying him as a long term starter based on that small of a body of work.

I don't know what the Raiders will want for Carr but of all the free agent options out there, he appears to be the one that looks the most attractive from a skill, cap and compensation standpoint. His cap hit over the next three years would be just under $20m per year for a team who trades from him.

If we could trade # 44 for Carr, I think that would be a good thing.

[Chaka]

Here's Spotrac's breakdown of Brian Hoyer's contract:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/indianap...an-hoyer-7035/

If I'm reading this correctly (and assuming Spotrac's info is also correct), Hoyer's 2020 salary and bonus are scheduled to become guaranteed in "March 2020", and that if he is cut before then there would be essentially no cap hit. So, if Hoyer somehow survives March, then I'd say we are unlikely to trade for Carr, sign Rivers, and possibly unlikely to draft a QB at all. Free agency begins on March 18, so I would be nice to know the exact date of Hoyer's guarantee date.

So I guess Hoyer status will be the canary in the coal mine which will signal what the Colts intent is with respect to the QB position this offseason. I gotta think he's a goner.

[Colt Classic]

No reason for him to be on the roster today.

[Racehorse]

Irsay is going to be available to the media tomorrow. Any guesses what he will say about the CBA that will tick off the other owners>