The 2023 Plan

[Ironshaft]

At this point, after only two games, I think that the season is already “lost” for a chance for this team to be in any kind of serious playoff contention. I am not discounting that the team could get on a run, win some games and potentially sneak into the playoffs but even if we do, there is something seriously missing from the composition of the team.

In fact, I think that it is much more likely that we will be in contention for a top five draft pick than a playoff run. Regardless of what we though our talent level on the field was prior to the season starting, the first two games have shown that our talent level is lacking but more importantly, the heart and fire of the team is lacking. This Colts team lacks passion about winning.

As some sports writer pointed out, over the past three games, the Colts have been outscored something like 70-6 through the first three quarters of each game. That is against JAX, HOU and JAX. Those teams are going no where against the rest of the league but they have taken the Colts out behind the woodshed and beat them like a red-headed step-child.

There is something wrong with the composition of this team. It cannot be one or two players missing (Leonard, Pittman). It is a systemic problem that needs to be completely burned out from the roots.

The Plan:

- Ballard. I am on the fence about Ballard. On one hand, I appreciate greatly his “system” of talent evaluation, his management of the salary cap, his ability to draft certain guys who end up performing well. However, he also makes bets on his talent evaluation that have been much, much, much less successful. Going into the season 2022 season with a journeyman left tackle backed up by a 3rd round raw rookie was a terrible bet. Bringing in no experienced wide receiver depth this season was a terrible bet. Betting on Yannick appears, at this point, to have been a bad bet. Continuing to draft physical studs who are “raw” and need time…..and time…..and time to develop looks to be a bad bet. I am good if Jim Irsay decides to fire him and I am fine if he returns on a SHORT leash.

- Coaching Staff. Needs to go. All of them. Top to bottom. Whomever is the new Head Coach needs complete freedom to bring in “their” guys. Who that head coach is? Not a clue. But it is time for Jim to make another big decision for the franchise and we as the fans need to hope he gets it right.

- Retain every player on their rookie contract for training camp next season. They are cheap and there is no reason to not retain them. Evaluate them in training camp and pick the best guys.

- There are no Colts scheduled for Restricted Free Agency in 2023 so no early decisions need to be made there.

- Every player on a veteran contract needs to be evaluated on their ability to fit into the next coaching scheme and their ability to contribute to the team. No one should be given a “pass” just because of draft status or past contributions. I don’t want anyone retained that would not fit into the new coach’s philosophy of how to team build. Not just play on the field but attitude in the locker room as well. No one should be safe. Every single player should be evaluated and judged on their worth to the next coaching staff. No sacred cows.

That being said, there are a two guys who it would be quite painful to cut in 2023:

Quenton Nelson. Would deliver $18m in cap loss if cut rather than retained ($30.8m cap hit vs $12.2m cap hit if he is cut in 2023). Since he is one of our best players, I have little doubt he would pass any review of his performance.

Shaquillie Leonard. He would deliver only a $4m cap loss if cut rather than retained ($24.0m cap hit vs $20.12m cap hit if cut in 2023). Again, since he is one of our best players…

That’s it. Those are the only players in 2023 that would deliver negative cap hit if cut. Every other contract the Colts own would add to the cap space if the player were cut (exception is Alec Pierce but he is on his rookie contract and cheap so he should be retained anyway).

Colts currently only have around $17m in free cap space in 2023 that they could use to sign new free agents. The following veterans would delivery big chunks of addition cap relief:

QB Matt Ryan = $35.200m
DT DeForest Buckner = $19.750m
RT Braden Smith = $19.000m
CB Stephan Gilmore = $9.980m
NT Grover Stewart = $9.375m
CB Kenny Moore = $7.545m
OC Ryan Kelly = $7.875m
RB Nyheim Hines = $3.290m
TE Mo Allie-Cox = $2.920m
PK Rigoberto Sanchez = $2.900m
((I stopped at a cap savings of $2.500m because it becomes pretty small change at that point))

Hard decisions on veterans. The Matt Ryan decision is easy if we end up going top five and getting a new franchise QB. After that, I would trust the next coaching staff and potential GM to decide the player’s worth.

Who would that leave us with? With just rookies and veterans whose cap savings is less than $2.5m if cut?

QB – Nick Foles ($2.1m cap savings if cut), Sam Ehlinger
RB – Jonathan Taylor
WR – Michael Pittman Jr, Alec Pierce, Dezmon Pattmon, Mike Strachan
TE – Kylen Granson, Jelani Woods, Andrew Ogletree
OT – Bernard Raimann, Luke Tenuta
OG – Quenton Nelson ($18.600m cap LOSS if cut), Danny Pinter, Will Fries
OC – Wesley French

NT – None
DT – Eric Johnson
DE – Kwity Paye, Dayo Odeyingbo,
LB – Shaquille Leonard ($3.790m cap LOSS if cut), JoJo Domann, Grant Stuard)
S – Julian Blackmon, Nick Cross, Rodney Thomas, Trevor Denbow
CB – Isaiah Rodgers, Dallis Flowers

Realistically, with a high pick rookie QB, it is at least a two year rebuild and more likely a three year rebuild.

The only real young building blocks the Colts have are: Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, Shaquille Leonard and Quenton Nelson.

There are some nice “lower” paid guys like: Grover Stewart, Nyheim Hines, Bobby Okereke, Tyquan Lewis and Zaire Franklin who are will be off their rookie contracts in 2023 whom are nice pieces but not building blocks.

I am convinced that the current path will not deliver Colts Nation to the promised land. We need to rebuild the team in a new image. It all has to go and get replaced.