NFL.com article on predicted wins

[sherck]

Using some math model that uses a WHOLE lot more data than I thought was recorded in any one database (located here).

The Colts?

#19 COLTS: 7.4 wins
Current record: 3-5. Projected playoff percentage: 27.3.

The Colts have the league's best third-down offense, converting 52.2 percent of the time on this crucial down. One of the main drivers of their success here -- and when it comes to wins -- is the improved ability of the O-line to keep Andrew Luck upright. Luck has only been sacked 10 times in eight games and is posting the lowest sack average in the league (1.25 sacks per game). Some of this is because of Luck's excellent decision-making, but also note that over the past three games, Luck has been sacked exactly zero times.

Seems about right; 4 or 5 wins out of our last 8 games. That is about the team we are right now.

I would LOVE for us to win more than that but am resigned to a 7 or 8 win season at this point.

Walk Worthy,

[omahacolt]

Looks right to me.

[VeveJones007]

Yep. You don't need a fancy model to know that a +18 point differential over 8 games translates to roughly a 4-4 record. You extrapolate that to the remaining 8 games and you expect about 4 more wins.

[1965southpaw]

Originally Posted by VeveJones007

Yep. You don't need a fancy model to know that a +18 point differential over 8 games translates to roughly a 4-4 record. You extrapolate that to the remaining 8 games and you expect about 4 more wins.

Lol....I used an even simpler math model to predict 8 wins before the season began......

Take 2017 wins (4) and replace the most clueless HC ever with a talented QB (2x force multiplier because both coaching and talent matter) = 8 wins

[VeveJones007]

Originally Posted by 1965southpaw

Lol....I used an even simpler math model to predict 8 wins before the season began......

Take 2017 wins (4) and replace the most clueless HC ever with a talented QB (2x force multiplier because both coaching and talent matter) = 8 wins

My way is less controversial on this site.

[1965southpaw]

Originally Posted by VeveJones007

My way is less controversial on this site.

If you aren't pissing someone off, you aren't trying hard enough.

[Puck]

Originally Posted by omahacolt

Looks right to me.

So who do you see us losing to?

[omahacolt]

Originally Posted by Puck

So who do you see us losing to?

Who knows. Jags and titans. Titans maybe twice. Texans and cowboys. This defense can lose us any game.

We are good enough to run the table. It just won’t happen

[VeveJones007]

Originally Posted by Puck

So who do you see us losing to?

Let's assume the Colts have 60% odds of winning each game. How long are the odds that they win every game?

[Puck]

Originally Posted by VeveJones007

Let's assume the Colts have 60% odds of winning each game. How long are the odds that they win every game?

I’m not saying they will. I’m asking those who say we lose 4 or 5 which teams do you think it will be to?

I think Jax away is a loss. Maybe Houston away. But I look at a very winnable schedule and I really don’t see any sure losses like I did in the first half of the season.