5 free agent losses

[Kray007]

As we approach the end of free agency, it has been widely noted that the Colts have lost 5 starters to free agency. Some analysts, wringing their hands and gnashing their teeth, gaze into their crystal balls and divine those losses as the first sign of an impending apocalypse. Flaming frogs are falling from the skies, St Michael has entered the Colts complex on West 56th St, sword flaming; hair shirts go on sale Monday.

I’m not here to minimize what’s happened. Certainly, losing five starters is serious business. But, let’s face it, in the immortal words of George Orwell, all pigs aren’t created equal.

To start out, try to remember that turnover isn’t unusual. In the age of free agency and the salary cap, you can’t keep your roster intact, season after season. Better men than Chris Ballard have tried, better men than Chris Ballard have failed. So, who have we lost?

Michael Pittman Jr…is, certainly, the biggest name on this list and he was shipped out to create cap space. Was he a good Receiver? Sure, but was he worth the $29 Million cap hit that keeping him would have entailed? When the Colts re’upped him, there was hope that he might turn out to be a legit #1 Receiver. in 2023, he had 109 receptions for 1152 yards. But, since then, he’s settled in to a role as a solid, reliable, over the middle, number 2 option. You don’t pay those guys $29 Million. Without him, they still have high quality starters in Pierce and Downs. Nick Westbrook-ikhine was brought in, presumably, to compete with Ashton Dulin for the vacant position. It’s not unreasonable to expect one of them to find some degree of success. Beyond that, my own crystal ball grows hazy. I have little doubt that they’ll take a flyer on the position in the draft. Beyond that, if they don’t acquire an edge rusher, it’s possible that they trade for this year’s version of AJ Brown or Devante Adams.

Braden Smith…I’m pretty sure that Chris Ballard would have made a major push to keep the Right Tackle had he been 27 years old. But, he’s a 30 year old who shows signs of wearing down. Jalen Travis was drafted and saw a decent amount of action as a rookie. While the sample size was small, he didn't look overmatched, especially when you consider that his five starts came against teams like Houston, the cream of Colt’s opponents. His PFF pass blocking score, for what it’s worth, was equal to Smith’s. His run blocking was appreciably better.

Kwity Paye…considering that someone ante’d up $48 Million for him in free agency, and the Colts netted a 4th round compensatory pick for him, you assume that the loss is going to carve out a huge hole in the defensive lineup. To me, though, he’s fool’s gold. He sets a nice edge, and his physical tools are impressive. It’s possible that, with different coaching and a different scheme, he’ll flower into the pass rushing gem many expected when he was drafted. But, with every legit analyst looking at the Colts going into the offseason and saying that the biggest need was at DE, it’s hard to wring your hands when they move on. Have they filled that need? Not yet; but, in this corner of the ether’sphere, there’s hope. Joey Bosa is still sitting out there, dangling from the free agent tree like a ripe banana. Failing that, we have a draft that’s deep, and Jeez…if Chris Ballard pulls the trigger enough times at DE, surely he’ll come somewhere near the target.

Zaire Franklin…if you want a 30 year old Linebacker who can’t cover a blocking sled and whose tackling seems to be trending in the wrong direction, boy do I have a guy for you. Just a year removed from the Pro Bowl, Zaire looked like a completely different player... and not in the good way. There’s no question that there’s a big hole at his position, but that hole would have existed even had he remained. In the best possible world, Jaylon Carlies stays healthy and fulfills his potential. Plan 1A is to delve into a deep draft class and pluck out Jacob Rodriguez, who looks like a legit piece.

Nick Cross…personally, I liked Nick. He was a nice piece against the run. But, opposing Quarterbacks completed more than 70% of their passes when throwing in his direction. With any luck, Wohlers overcomes his Lisfranc injury and fulfills the potential he showed before going down. If that happens, they should be fine. If not, they have Daniel Scott and a couple of players signed as free agents. Bottom line, this isn’t a Mother Hubbard situation. Without Nick, the cupboard isn’t dry.

[ChoppedWood]

Good breakdown, pretty much agree with everything said.

Without some significant adds, I am feeling really good about a 6-11, 7-10 record this year with huge upside to reach 8-9. This roster is not nearly good enough to contend for a playoff spot.

With rare exception DE's picked outside the very top of the draft, do shit in their first year.

[Oldcolt]

It is depressing that we have nobody waiting in the wings to replace these guys on our own roster. You need to have hit on an occasional defensive back or lineman. What ever happens our depth will be terrible and when we get injuries we will have a built in excuse. Listening to Carly, she seems like she is a happy billionaire owning a .500 club. So would I.

[apballin]

Originally Posted by Oldcolt

It is depressing that we have nobody waiting in the wings to replace these guys on our own roster. You need to have hit on an occasional defensive back or lineman. What ever happens our depth will be terrible and when we get injuries we will have a built in excuse. Listening to Carly, she seems like she is a happy billionaire owning a .500 club. So would I.

Totally disagree this may be the deepest team Ballard has assembled.

There’s depth at every position and that’s pre draft.

Akeem Davis Gather and Cam Taylor Britt will have huge impact on this defense.

There’s depth at every position aside from defensive end, but I look for that to be addressed in the draft

[Oldcolt]

Originally Posted by apballin

Totally disagree this may be the deepest team Ballard has assembled.

There’s depth at every position and that’s pre draft.

Akeem Davis Gather and Cam Taylor Britt will have huge impact on this defense.

There’s depth at every position aside from defensive end, but I look for that to be addressed in the draft

Hope you are right. We shall see.

[Thorgrim]

Not really much to add. We lost 5 starters from a team that hasn’t sniffed playoff success in years. Honestly don’t know if that’s good or bad. I’m kinda past being emotionally invested in the offseason business of the team. Like 31 other GM’s Ballard is tasked with fielding a winner. Every year some manage to do it and some manage it for several years in succession. Here we are in year ten of his tenure and I have no clue of just how long the plan will prove to be. Maybe everything comes to fruition this year. Perhaps he needs another 4 or 5 years. The Irsays have been very patient in my opinion and continue to demonstrate confidence in the process so I hope for the best. At the same time I’ve always seen the wisdom of “what’s past is prologue.”

[apballin]

Honestly of the 5 starters listed who on the list was a game wrecker or game changer?

I don’t see any, Pittman was a workhorse that set a good tone for the team but the production just wasn’t there for the pay. Now Warren will get an expanded role because Pittman was basically used as a TE split out wide.

[Racehorse]

Originally Posted by apballin

Honestly of the 5 starters listed who on the list was a game wrecker or game changer?

I don’t see any, Pittman was a workhorse that set a good tone for the team but the production just wasn’t there for the pay. Now Warren will get an expanded role because Pittman was basically used as a TE split out wide.

Pittman was the player we will miss the most, but his targets could be spread out amongst the other WRs and Warren, and we will see the dropoff be minimal. Cross was trending in the right direction, but seemed to be playing his style, which led to great stats for him, but left the team vulnerable at times. I think all five can be replaced fairly quickly.

[George Wonsley]

Not sure replacing Pittman with a similar type wideout is necessary. Pierce will see more targets, Downs has been underutilized the last two years as Pierce elevated his game and IMO Warren will level up. A developmental depth guy with size does make sense and hopefully one is there later in the draft.

[Oldcolt]

Racehorse, I totally agree all 5 can easily be replaced. None was a stud, all were just mediocre. Finding another mediocre player isn't the hardest thing, and really that is what we have found so far. I strongly disagree about the depth on this team, we don't even have starters at linebacker much less backups. Who backs up the offensive line, running back, wide receiver or quarterback? Our defensive back actually look like a normal team, we have studs starting (all free agents or trades-Ballard has missed on every db he has drafted) with young developmental types waiting/learning in the wings.We seem to have improved our defensive line depth, which is great, we just don't have any real pass rushers that can rush the passer when it counts. There are a ton of holes to fill with the draft. Ballard better revert back to his early years of drafting studs.