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INDIANAPOLIS — Frank Reich gave George Li and John Park, the Colts’ analytics experts, an assignment last offseason. That’s not anything out of the ordinary.
The way Reich’s mind works, always coming up with questions, always checking his personal intuition against the numbers, keeps a running line of work from the head coach’s office to the analytics department.
“That’s what we do,” Reich said. “We lay awake at night, looking at all those numbers, once you get to the offseason.”
The project Li and Park ran last offseason carried a little more potential for insomnia, given its implications for the team’s best player.
Reich wanted to know how much work the Colts can give Jonathan Taylor without breaking him down.
“Looked at every back who’s had a lot of touches,” Reich said. “How many touches did they have in their career? What was the flow of their career? … With JT, does he fall into that same category as those guys? What’s going to be our number?”
The Colts head coach hasn’t offered up that number publicly.
Why Jonathan Taylor can't have 370 carries
But Aaron Schatz, editor in chief of the popular analytics site Football Outsiders, has long talked about The Curse of 370, the principle analysis being that a running back who gets more than 370 carries in a regular season — or 390 including the postseason — will likely suffer injury or a significant drop in production the next season ... or both.
Only two running backs have hit that threshold since the 2009 season. Former Cowboys star DeMarco Murray was given 392 carries in 2014, and Titans superstar Derrick Henry hauled 378 carries in 2020.
Murray’s production fell off considerably with the Eagles the next season; Henry suffered a Jones fracture that cost him half a season last year. Outside of Hall of Famer Eric Dickerson, who followed up a 390-carry rookie season in 1983 by rushing for 2,105 yards in 1984, almost every running back who hit the 370-mark has seen his production fall in one way or the other.
Taylor hasn’t come close to that barrier yet.
The Colts handed him 332 carries in his 1,811-yard season last year, 25 more than any other back in football but far short of Schatz’s curse. In a modern era dominated by the passing game and committees at the running back position, 370 is a hard number to reach.
Unless the Colts rode Taylor for an entire season the way they did at the end of the 2021 campaign.
Taylor carried the ball 171 times in the final seven games of the 2021 season, an average of 24.4 carries per game. Extrapolate that workload over the course of a 17-game season and Taylor would carry it 415 times, far beyond the reaches of the Curse.
The good news is Reich has never designed his offense to look the way it did down the stretch.
'That's why we went home last year'
“It’s better to be balanced, and that’s what we want to do,” Reich said. “It doesn’t also mean that you never go out of balance for a little bit. I think we all fall out of balance at one point.”
The inefficiency and ineptitude of the Indianapolis passing game forced Reich and the Colts out of balance.
Defenses loaded up to stop Taylor down the stretch last season, lining up in looks that practically begged Indianapolis to attack through the air.
“When they loaded the box and we had to throw, we didn’t win, the throws weren’t made, it was a combination of things, it wasn’t just one person or two people,” running back Nyheim Hines said. ““If a defense is going to go out there and load the box to stop it, it’s on us to get them out of it. … And honestly, that’s why we went home last year.”
Taylor has never complained about his workload.
Never will.
Famously fanatical about his physical preparation, Taylor’s philosophy has always been that he has to prepared for whatever the Colts need him to do.
“That’s why in the offseason, I take it very serious to be able to come in the best shape that I can be,” Taylor said. “Just in case they say, ‘JT, you’re in there every snap,’ I’m prepared for it.”
Taylor is being modest.
The work doesn’t happen only in the offseason. Few players are as disciplined about their recovery during the regular season — in addition to practices and rest, Taylor practices yoga, massage and frequently goes through physical work during positional meetings in an effort to stay in something close to perfect shape.
Taylor believes all of that work is why he felt so good at the end of his spectacular performance last season. While Reich has said in the past that Taylor never asks to come out of the game, the budding superstar acknowledges there are times he needs a breather after a long run or a long stretch of carries.
But his primary focus is limiting the times he asks for a chance to rest.
“The No. 1 thing is: What are you doing in the offseason?” Taylor said. “You have to prepare your body for any amount of workload you might get. It’s better to have and not need.”
The Colts know they need Taylor.
And they want to have him as much as possible. For that reason, Reich and the rest of the Indianapolis front office have thought long and hard about the carries Taylor gets — according to Football Outsiders research, catches in the passing game do not take the same toll on a back — and have guidelines in mind.
It’s not just Taylor.
After looking through the results of the study, Reich sat down with the offensive staff last season and mapped out an ideal scenario for touches for every skill position player on the offense, knowing full well that it likely won’t end up that way.
Because of his position, Taylor’s ideal scenario is a little bit more critical.
“In my mind, I have a certain number of carries, what that means, and a certain number of touches, targets,” Reich said.
Reich, running backs coach Scottie Montgomery and the rest of the offensive staff make the decisions on playing time.
But ultimately, keeping Taylor’s carries in check will likely come down to the Matt Ryan-led passing game and its ability to take advantage of defenses geared up to stop Taylor. A year ago, the Colts kept hammering Taylor into stacked boxes because it was the team’s best chance to win.
Based on the way Taylor tore through defenses last season, it’s reasonable to assume Indianapolis will get a lot of those looks again, especially early in the year.
The Indianapolis passing game has to be able to take advantage.
“We run the ball, we wear the ‘Run the Damn Ball' hats for a reason,” Hines said. “I think we’ll get that, and after that, it’s on us to get them out of it.”
And give Taylor room, both to rest and to run.
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09-09-2022, 03:29 PM
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