[Chaka]

Not to be a downer, but I really don’t like how things have shaped up and as a result I’m feeling fairly pessimistic about our chances. Here’s why:

1. We are on the outside looking in at the moment.

2. The four other teams competing for last AFC playoff spots are also facing must-win scenarios, and absolutely will not be resting any starters.

3. The opponents of those four teams have virtually nothing left to play for other than pride/draft position. Yes, the Steelers and Bills are “fighting” for the #2 seed, but by all indications the distinction between the #2 and #3 seed - and the related slight improvement in home field advantage positioning - means very little in a season where home stadiums are largely empty. The Steelers have openly acknowledged this by resting their starters in their upcoming game against Cleveland – I can’t imagine they would do this if they perceived any significant advantage to being the #2 seed.

4. I don’t have faith that the Bills will be going all-out for a victory on Sunday against Miami. Even if they badly want the #2 seed, they have to be thinking to themselves that they are likely to get it regardless, since Cleveland is a heavy favorite to beat a Steelers team consisting of mostly backups at the critical positions. By the way, if they win, chances are that we would go to Buffalo to play them next week. If they lose and we are out, chances are that they’d host Cleveland instead. Not sure how that would play into this.

5. Yes, I know Houston fought Tennessee hard in an away game decided in OT during week 6. However, that was in a different context - Houston was desperately fighting to save its season, as it had high preseason expectations but had come out of the gate very poorly (1-4) and could not afford another loss. Now, however, their season has long since been declared dead, and is there really any major bad blood between the two teams that might otherwise serve as a motivating factor? The best I can say is that the individual Houston players might be fighting for roster spots on next season’s team, and I know JJ Watt will be playing hard – but he also strongly suggested that the team as a whole has been slacking off.

6. Last, but never least, we can’t forget that we already lost to the Jaguars once this season, and we barely squeaked by another bottom of the barrel team (Cincy) after we let them jump ahead 21-0 at the beginning of that game. We just don’t have a great history of dominating much weaker opponents.

So there it is. I want to be optimistic, but I just don’t think the facts justify it here. I’d say our chances are 50-50 at his point, maybe even less, even though Vegas will tell you our chances are better than that. I invite any disagreements, as I’d like to be convinced otherwise.