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INDIANAPOLIS — For the first time in a long time, the Colts enter a season without the weight of expectations swirling around the franchise, the product of last season's collapse from AFC South favorite to the fourth-worst record in the league.

Indianapolis is instead largely an afterthought on the national scene, save for the curiosity and excitement surrounding first-round quarterback Anthony Richardson. Because of Richardson's youth — and the rest of the NFL's third-youngest roster — the Colts aren't expected to make many waves in 2023.

With that in mind, IndyStar insiders Joel A. Erickson and Nate Atkins take their best shot at predicting the outcome of each Colts game in Richardson's rookie season.

Aug 24, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) passes the ball while being hit by Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackle Marvin Wilson (73) and defensive tackle Robert Cooper (64) during the second quarter at Lincoln Financial Field.
Week 1: Colts vs. Jaguars, 1 p.m. Sunday, WXIN-59

Erickson (0-1): Jaguars 27, Colts 16

A decade has passed since the Colts last won the season opener; a comeback to tie Houston kept Indianapolis from taking its ninth consecutive loss last year. If that Colts team couldn't start quickly against that (tanking?) Texans team, it's hard to see how Indianapolis beats the AFC South favorites.


Atkins (0-1): Jaguars 30, Colts 21

Even with the opener streak aside, this is not the matchup to hope for out of the gate. The Colts will start two second-year undrafted cornerbacks against Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk and Trevor Lawrence in a dome. The element of surprise with Anthony Richardson should open up a few interesting plays, but it's hard to ask a rookie to play catch-up.


Week 2: Colts at Texans, 1 p.m. Sunday, WXIN-59

Erickson (1-1): Colts 19, Texans 17

Richardson wins his first matchup against fellow 2023 first-rounder C.J. Stroud, tearing through the Texans defense with his legs while DeForest Buckner and the Indianapolis pass rush get to Stroud in the pocket enough times to hold on for Shane Steichen's first win as a head coach.


Atkins (1-1): Colts 20, Texans 19

I expect the Texans defense to be much improved under Demeco Ryans, but two rookie quarterbacks will be feeling their way out in this one, with some explosive plays and some big mistakes. A long Matt Gay field goal is the difference.

Week 3: Colts at Ravens, 1 p.m. Sunday, WTTV-4

Erickson (1-2): Ravens 33, Colts 20


Richardson gets a glimpse of his potential, watching mostly from the sidelines as Baltimore superstar Lamar Jackson puts together a full-game reprise of his devastating second half on Monday night against the Colts two seasons ago.

Atkins (1-2): Ravens 41, Colts 20

This game has reality check written on it, less because of Lamar Jackson and more because of what the Ravens defense can do to a quarterback who is pressing to answer him all the time.

Week 4: Colts vs. Rams, 1 p.m. Sunday, WXIN-59

Erickson (2-2): Colts 28, Rams 24

Richardson rips off a pair of highlight-reel runs, taking advantage of a young Los Angeles defense, to pick up his first home win and give Indianapolis a sense of hope early in the rookie's debut season.

Atkins (1-3): Rams 27, Colts 21

This early in the season, I'm banking on the Rams having more of their star players healthy than not. If that's the case, Aaron Donald and Cooper Kupp shouldn't have too much of a challenge in the matchups they'll face. Michael Pittman Jr. can make some plays on a retooling secondary, but Matthew Stafford prevails as the safer quarterback for a change.

Dec 17, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) warms up before the game against the Minnesota Vikings at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
Week 5: Colts vs. Titans, 1 p.m. Sunday, WTTV-4

Erickson (2-3): Titans 23, Colts 21

The return of Jonathan Taylor leads to a back-and-forth battle between two of the NFL's top backs, but the Titans' experience in the secondary ends up giving Tennessee an advantage on third down.

Atkins (2-3): Colts 24, Titans 20

I don't know if Jonathan Taylor will be back for this game, but I think the Colts win anyway because of the way Richardson diversifies the backfield. The Titans are used to whipping the Colts up front and going right to the ball carrier, and that isn't going to happen this time. Richardson leads his first game-winning drive and Lucas Oil Stadium erupts.

Week 6: Colts at Jaguars, 1 p.m. Sunday, WTTV-4

Erickson (2-4): Jaguars 31, Colts 17

Eight straight road losses in the series becomes nine in another ugly performance in the city of Jacksonville, a place that has been the site of some of the Colts' worst moments over the last decade.

Atkins (2-4): Jaguars 38, Colts 20

The Colts never play well here, and I don't see that changing when the matchup is clearly not on their side. The lack of a home crowd makes it even harder for the secondary to get a stop, and Indianapolis just doesn't have enough explosive answers.


Week 7: Colts vs. Browns, 1 p.m. Sunday, WTTV-4

Erickson (2-5): Browns 35, Colts 30

A stout Browns offensive line and a young Indianapolis secondary provide the spark for a big day from Cleveland quarterback Deshaun Watson, overshadowing an explosive performance by the Richardson-Taylor pairing for the Colts.

Atkins (2-5): Browns 28, Colts 14

The Browns spent this offseason beefing up the defensive line. By Week 7, it's only fair to assume the Colts will be into their depth a little bit, and it becomes a mismatch. Richardson and Taylor start to really get going in moments here, but the Colts have to abandon the run before they want to.

Week 8: Colts vs. Saints, 1 p.m. Sunday, WXIN-59

Erickson (2-6): Saints 31, Colts 14

Dennis Allen's style of defense, stout up front against the run and blitz-heavy against the pass, makes life difficult on Richardson, and the big-play combo of Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed crack open the Indianapolis secondary.

Atkins (2-6): Saints 27, Colts 24

The Colts have had a time with Derek Carr over the years, last season notwithstanding. Anthony Richardson makes a couple of explosive plays to keep this one tight to the end, but Carr stays a step ahead of the young secondary and the Saints get a game-winning field goal.

Week 9: Colts at Panthers, 1 p.m. Sunday, WTTV-4

Erickson (2-7): Panthers 24, Colts 23

Richardson's second chance to take on one of the quarterbacks picked ahead of him produces an instant classic, but Young's efficiency in the red zone and veteran complement of receivers end up giving former Colts coach Frank Reich the upper hand.

Atkins (2-7): Panthers 24, Colts 20

The battle between rookie quarterbacks is a fun one, with the cerebral Bryce Young dueling the explosive Anthony Richardson. But the steady hand wins this one, as Young plays within himself on a more veteran team and makes the crunch-time plays for a game-winning drive.

Week 10: Colts at Patriots, 9:30 a.m. Sunday, NFL Network

Erickson (2-8): Patriots 16, Colts 10

Famous for making life difficult on rookie quarterbacks, a fact the Colts remember all too well from Sam Ehlinger's start last year, Bill Belichick gives Richardson a welcome-to-the-NFL moment.

Atkins (3-7): Colts 20, Patriots 16

International games are hard to predict, other than that scoring is typically down. Expect that to be true in a matchup between a rookie quarterback and Bill Belichick. But Richardson is due for a go-ahead drive of his own and finds it after learning to play within himself a little more following the loss to Young. Mac Jones gets swallowed by Kwity Paye as he throws an interception to Julian Blackmon.

Week 12: Buccaneers at Colts, 1 p.m. Sunday, WTTV-4

Erickson (3-8): Colts 34, Buccaneers 17

The bye week gives Shane Steichen a chance to strip down the offense, tailor it to the concepts Richardson's handled best and emerge with a more potent attack, tearing through a Tampa Bay team in transition.

Atkins (4-7): Colts 30, Buccaneers 21

Out of the bye week, Richardson is feeling himself and Taylor is ready for a second-half push. The Colts run wild over the Buccaneers and force Kyle Trask, in for the benched Baker Mayfield, to force some bad turnovers. A city starts to believe.

Week 13: Colts at Titans, 1 p.m. Sunday, WTTV-4

Erickson (3-9): Titans 31, Colts 23

Mike Vrabel's teams have always had a penchant for capitalizing on opponent's mistakes, and the Titans pull it off again, forcing a pair of turnovers that turn into quick scores for Tennessee, plus a big game for DeAndre Hopkins.

Atkins (4-8): Titans 28, Colts 20

It’s hard to see the Colts turning around and sweeping the Titans this early in the Steichen-Richardson rebuild. A trip to Nashville is a prime revenge opportunity for the struggling Titans, and they win badly enough in the trenches to control this game throughout.

Week 14: Colts at Bengals, 1 p.m. Sunday, WTTV-4

Erickson (3-10): Bengals 41, Colts 34

The rejuvenated offense gives a Super Bowl contender a run for its money, but the young Indianapolis secondary is ill-equipped to slow down Joe Burrow and his fleet of talented receivers.

Atkins (4-9): Bengals 37, Colts 24

The select matchups against elite passing games are where the Colts are really in trouble this season. Cincinnati will be making its annual second-half surge and will have no issue dicing this secondary up. Richardson tries to force a couple plays to answer with explosive gains and a pick-six does Indianapolis in early in the second half.

Indianapolis Colts defensive tackle DeForest Buckner (99) sacks Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) on Monday, Dec. 26, 2022, during a game against the Los Angeles Chargers at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
Week 15: Steelers at Colts, time, date, channel TBA

Erickson (4-10): Colts 28, Steelers 21

A big game from DeForest Buckner and the devastating 1-2 punch of Taylor and Richardson combine to finally make good on the signs the offense has been showing, sparking momentum for a team hoping to see potential.

Atkins (4-10): Steelers 23, Colts 16

The Steelers have the inverse team of the Colts in some ways, with a focus on defense, a steady young quarterback and an overall balanced, veteran team. They’ll be playing for more at this moment and will make the plays on defense in the red zone to leave the Colts lamenting their missed opportunities.

Week 16: Colts at Falcons, 1 p.m. Sunday, WXIN-59

Erickson (4-11): Falcons 26, Colts 20

The last road trip of the season comes at a price. Indianapolis makes a few key mistakes offensively, and Falcons rookie Bijan Robinson capitalizes, leading to a Colts setback.

Atkins (4-11): Falcons 28, Colts 25

The Falcons are really the inverse of the Colts, as they’ve stockpiled a bunch of weapons and are waiting on a high-upside quarterback to lead them all. In a dome in Atlanta, I trust Arthur Smith to stay in control of those mismatches against a Colts defense that’s running through some young backups to get through the season. Richardson makes some impressive throws, but it’s not enough for the game Drake London puts up.

Week 17: Raiders at Colts, 1 p.m. Sunday, WTTV-4

Erickson (5-11): Colts 35, Raiders 17

Indianapolis tees off on Las Vegas backup Brian Hoyer and overwhelms a thin Raiders defensive front with its ground game, exploding for another huge offensiver performance as it continues to settle into its identity with a young Richardson at the helm.

Atkins (5-11): Colts 28, Raiders 21

Heading into Week 1, the Raiders are the last team the Colts have beaten. I think there’s a reason for that. Things will be bubbling over for Josh McDaniels’ squad by this point, where the Colts will still have good buy-in under Steichen. Richardson and Taylor run wild as Indianapolis stays in front all game.

Week 18: Texans at Colts, time, date, channel TBD

Erickson (6-11): Colts 31, Texans 21

The overall record might not be pretty, but the strides Richardson and the offense made down the stretch end up giving Steichen a foundation moving forward, leaving it up to the front office to build around its coach and quarterback.

Atkins (5-12): Texans 24, Colts 20

The Colts and Texans are in the same place this season – first-time head coach, rookie quarterback taken in the top five – and it only makes sense that they’ll split. C.J. Stroud is coming into his own a little bit now and makes some big throws late to head into the offseason on a high note.