Originally Posted by sherck
So, some spare time on my hands......
Gil Brandt writes this in his "Top 150 Draft Prospects" article this week on NFL.com
So, he has been doing this a LONG time. I decided to go back and look to see how accurate his ranking have been to where the player ended up being drafted.
I will not bore you with the spreadsheets but I looked at his last six years and analyzed the top 100 prospects. I noted where he said they ranked and where they ended up being drafted. Long story short:
-- Brandt is accurate in picking a players draft slot within 10 slots either way 75% of the time.
That means that if he ranks a guy as the #25 ranked guys, that 3 out of 4 times, that guy will be selected between 16 and 34. This is pretty easy to do at the top of the draft but get progressively harder when down in the 30s and 40s much less the 70s and 80s; however, Brandt still does a good job done there.
That 75% number accounts for a lot of factors, most notably player injury and QB jumping, that lower that percentage. I thought that was a pretty accurate percentage over six draft classes.
So, for our purposes, what does that mean? Players within 10 spots of our 2017 draft picks:
1-15 (#15):
06. Malik Hooker - S, Ohio State
07. Jonathan Allen - DT, Alabama
08. Mitchell Trubisky - QB, North Carolina
09. Deshaun Watson - QB, Clemson
10. John Ross - WR, Washington
11. Gareon Conley - CB, Ohio State
12. Christian McCaffrey - RB, Stanford
13. O.J. Howard - TE, Alabama
14. Reuben Foster - LB, Alabama
15. Cam Robinson - OT, Alabama
16. Derek Barnett - DE, Tennessee
17. Charles Harris - DE, Missouri
18. Parick Mahomes - QB, Texas Tech
19. Ryan Ramczyk - OT, Wisconsin
20. Jarrad Davis - LB, Florida
21. Jabrill Peppers - S, Michigan
22. Garett Bolles - OT, Utah
23. Mike Williams - WR, Clemson
24. Takkarist McKinley - DE, UCLA
Foster and Davis at ILB. Barnett, Harris or McKinley at OLB. Conley at CB. Peppers at S. We are going to get an impact defender.
2-14 (#46):
37. Haason Reddick - DE, Temple
38. Marcus Williams - S, Utah
39. Josh Jones - S, N.C. State
40. Jordan Willis - DE, Kansas St.
41. Forrest Lamp - G, Western Kentucky
42. Taco Charlton - DE, Michigan
43. Marlon Humphrey - CB, Alabama
44. Marcus Maye - S, Florida
45. Malik McDowell - DT, Michigan State
46. Zach Cunningham - LB, Vanderbilt
47. Tim Williams - LB, Alabama
48. Chris Wormley - DE, Michigan
49. Ryan Anderson - OLB, Alabama
50. Dan Feeney - OL, Indiana
51. Chris Godwin, WR, Penn State
52. Pat Elflein, C, Ohio State
53. Justin Evans, S, Texas A&M
54. Ethan Pocic, C, LSU
55. Budda Baker, S, Washington
Humphrey at CB, Cunningham at ILB, Charlton, Williams, Wormley, Anderson at OLB. Baker at S. All good choices.
3-16 (#80):
71. Dalvin Tomlinson, DT, Alabama
72. Raekwon McMillan, LB, Ohio State
73. Jordan Leggett, TE, Clemson
74. Dawuane Smoot, DE, Illinois
75. Josh Malone, WR, Tennessee
76. Carl Lawson, DE, Auburn
77. Duke Riley, OLB, LSU
78. Alvin Kamara, RB, Tennessee
79. Sidney Jones, CB, Washington
80. Brian Hill, RB, Wyoming
81. Davis Webb, QB, Cal
82. Joshua Dobbs, QB, Tennessee
83. Isaac Asiata, OG, Utah
84. Cam Sutton, CB, Tennessee
85. Zach Banner, OT, USC
86. Jeremy Sprinkle, TE, Arkansas
87. D'Onta Foreman, RB, Texas
88. Josh Reynolds, WR, Texas A&M
89. Vince Biegel, LB, Wisconsin
Some solid CBs in Jones and Sutton. I don't hate Duke Riley at OLB but I don't think he is much impact. McMillian at ILB is solid. Lots of, ehhhhhh in this list.
4-15 (#121):
112. Brad Kaaya, QB, Miami
113. John Johnson, S, Boston College
114. Kendell Beckwith, ILB, LSU
115. KD Cannon, WR, Baylor
116. Kenny Golladay, WR, Northern Illinois
117. Jake Butt, TE, Michigan
118. Danny Isidora, OG, Miami
119. Adam Shaheen, TE, Ashland
120. Cordrea Tankersley, CB, Clemson
121. Carlos Watkins, DT, Clemson
122. Montravius Adams, DT, Auburn
123. Carlos Henderson, WR-KR, Louisiana Tech
124. Amara Darboh, WR, Michigan
125. Anthony Walker, LB, Northwestern
126. Tarell Basham, DE, Ohio
127. Taywan Taylor, WR, Western Kentucky
128. Derek Rivers, DE, Youngstown St.
129. Donnel Pumphrey, RB, San Diego St.
130. Antonio Garcia, OT, Troy
Tankersley would be fantastic to get in the 4th. I like Tarell Basham as a developmental pass rusher. Pumphrey would be a pretty good RB2 in the 4th. I am sure some of the D-Line guys could help out.
4-31 (#137):
126. Tarell Basham, DE, Ohio
127. Taywan Taylor, WR, Western Kentucky
128. Derek Rivers, DE, Youngstown St.
129. Donnel Pumphrey, RB, San Diego St.
130. Antonio Garcia, OT, Troy
131. Howard Wilson, CB, Houston
132. Kareem Hunt, RB, Toledo
133. Jehu Chesson, WR, Michigan
134. Jessamen Dunker, OG, Tennessee St.
135. Fadol Brown, DE, Ole Miss
136. Collin Buchanan, OT, Miami (Ohio)
137. Avery Gennesy, OT, Texas A&M
138. Larry Ogunjobi, OT, UNC-Charlotte
139. Jonnu Smith, TE, Florida International
140. Shelton Gibson, WR, West Virginia
141. Jeremy McNichols, RB, Boise St.
142. Mack Hollins, WR, North Carolina
143. Tarik Cohen, RB-KR, North Carolina A&T
144. Jalen Myrick, CB, Minnesota
145. Zane Gonzalez, K, Arizona State
146. Brandon Barnes, TE, Alabama St.
4-38 (#144):
135. Fadol Brown, DE, Ole Miss
136. Collin Buchanan, OT, Miami (Ohio)
137. Avery Gennesy, OT, Texas A&M
138. Larry Ogunjobi, OT, UNC-Charlotte
139. Jonnu Smith, TE, Florida International
140. Shelton Gibson, WR, West Virginia
141. Jeremy McNichols, RB, Boise St.
142. Mack Hollins, WR, North Carolina
143. Tarik Cohen, RB-KR, North Carolina A&T
144. Jalen Myrick, CB, Minnesota
145. Zane Gonzalez, K, Arizona State
146. Brandon Barnes, TE, Alabama St.
147. Ben Gedeon, ILB, Michigan
148. Ahkello Witherspoon, CB, Colorado
149. C.J. Beathard, QB, Iowa
150. Deatrich Wise, DE, Arkansas
Witherspoon is one of my "sleepers" at CB; I like his game. Jonnu Smith is an ideal TE3; he needs some technique coaching but has great physical traits and a lot of college experience. Some of the RB options are solid if we have not selected one by now.
Anyway, just some more food for thought as to the candidates whom might be available with our top picks. From a guy who gets those lists 75% right.
Cheers,
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