Quote:
Originally Posted by sherck
What would be "heavy investment" in your book?
In 2017, the Colts have added 12 free agents for a total 2017 cap hit of $35.480m. That is a lot of cheddar.
Of those 12 players:
- 3 are outright starters (Sheard, Simon, Locke)
- 3 are likely starters (Sean Spence at ILB, Darius Butler at FS, Al Woods at NT)
- 3 will likely be the primary backup to a position (Schwenke at OC/OG, Kamar Aiken at WR, Robert Turbin at RB).
- 3 are depth/developmental (Mingo, Hunt, TE Brandon Williams)
What is "heavy investment" to you? Big names? Top ten contracts? Just players you like?
Honestly, if you are hoping that Ballard is one of those GMs who pays the first day "hyper" contracts to big name stars, you should switch your loyalty to JAX or WAS. He has said that successful NFL teams:
Build the top 1/3 of your roster (i.e. your superstars) through the draft.
Build your middle 1/3 of your roster (solid starters) through free agency.
Build your bottom 1/3 of your roster via UDFA/low round draft/street free agent (depth).
Thinking that Ballard is going to sign "big" free agents to "big" contracts in the next year or three will probably leave you disappointed.
I think we are going to see a whole lot more of what happened this year. Signing guys who have played a lot of NFL games but have not compiled "elite" stats coming off their rookie contracts in their mid-20s whom Ballard believes has more in the tank than they have shown so far (Sheard, Simon, Aiken, Schwenke, Spence) or just completely underperformed their rookie draft position and can be redeemed (Hunt, Mingo). Give them solid contracts, give them opportunities, give them competition and he think he will get some diamonds in the rough out of that pressure cooker.
As long as he can nail some early drafts and get 1 or 2 superstars from each draft class (along with 1 or 2 solid starters), that strat will work just fine. Reserve your big contract money for players whom you have developed and know extensively and deserve it.
But, thinking that we are going to "heavy invest" in free agency by signing one of those way, way overpriced "stars" on day one is probably going to disappoint you.
Cheers,
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The answer to your first question is "signing true difference-makers." Teams like Denver and NYG have shown that you can be effective targeting high-end free agents who make a real difference for your team.
Keep in mind that some of my desire to do that is because of the "use it or lose it" nature of the cap. They don't have to save much cap space to re-sign guys on expiring rookie deals over the next two years, so they will have a lot of money to spend...otherwise it's gone and a lost opportunity.
To maximize this mini rebuild, Ballard needs to
1) Hit on draft picks
2) Make smart mid- to low-tier UFA signings to stabilize the roster and create depth
3) Utilize his excess cap space in 2018-2019 to sign a couple real difference makers via UFA
#3 is pretty simple: either Ballard allocates that cap space via UFA, or it's money in Irsay's pockets. There are only so many guys you can sign to $3-5MM deals when your roster is bereft of expensive contracts.