Quote:
Originally Posted by Chaka
I don't believe the chance was only 10% for a victory. Lots of assumptions built into these types of analyses, and they are highly debatable.
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o
I agree ...... those formulas are debatable, and I do think that the Colts had better than a 10% chance to win by going for it on 4th down at that point.
However, I do think that their chances were still well under 50% at that point (perhaps somewhere between 20% and 25%), which is why I would have chosen to punt the ball.
If there were 10 second less left on the clock (17 instead of 27), I would have gone for it ........ the Texans were out of timeouts, and even if the Colts had failed to get the 1st down, there would have been only 11 or 12 seconds left on the clock, which is not enough time to complete a pass over the middle and spike the ball like they did. They would have needed to either complete a pass and gotten out of bounds to stop the clock (much harder to do when the opposition knows that you have to do that) or tried for 2 Hail Marys to the endzone (another low percentage play.)
o