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2026 NFL Free Agency Grades: Dexter Lawrence II, Kirk Cousins
(By Seth Walder and Ben Solak)
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...-draft-outlook
The Colts Re-Sign QB Daniel Jones
Terms: ) 2 Years / $88 Million / $50 Million Fully Guaranteed
Grade: ) B
Jones' time in New York ended in a mess for the Giants because the team opted not to give him the franchise tag in the 2023 offseason, instead guaranteeing him $81 Million. And I was worried that the Colts might make the same mistake. They fared better, though.
Like 3 years ago, Jones is coming off of a season in which he played well. Like then, there are still questions about what his true ability is and now increased concerns about his injury risk.
The Colts opted to place a transition tag on Jones that would have paid him $37.8 Million if he wasn't signed by another team and played on it. The trickier part of the equation is that Jones is coming off an Achilles tear which could affect his availability ...... and/or his play ...... in 2026. So for the Colts to bring him back, it makes sense they would want to control his rights in 2027, too. That's true, even though ESPN's Adam Schefter reported Wednesday that Jones is now expected to be ready for the start of the regular season.
But the Colts did much better than the Giants when it came to guarantees. We don't know the exact structure of the deal yet, but with $50 million fully guaranteed, the Colts seemed to turn a one-year, $38 Million transition tag contract into what can either be a one-year, $50 Million deal or a 2-year, $88 Million deal -- and the choice is theirs. Once they had decided to go the transition tag route (I'm not sure they had to), then that's a trade-off worth making. The grade above is a reflection of their decision to sign this deal given that they had already placed the tag on him.
Had Jones insisted on a higher level of guarantee, Indianapolis would have been advised to limit the downside and have him play on the transition tag. But this is a middle ground that works for all parties. Jones gets a little more money locked in, and the Colts will have a quarterback at a reasonable price for two seasons if he can recover from his Achilles injury and get back to his 2025 level of play.
That last part is no certainty.
Jones had a great season with the Colts. In 13 games he recorded a QBR of 63.0 (8th best) and a completion percentage over expected of plus-3% (6th best.) In a change from the past, he was also able to limit his sacks taken with a 5.2% sack rate (11th lowest.)
But he was also supported by a great running game. The Colts ranked first in EPA per designed rush and relied heavily on play-action (35% play-action rate, 2nd highest). And fumbling remained an issue for Jones, with a 1.7% fumble rate (2nd highest among quarterbacks) that is on par with his career average.
And we can't throw out Jones' past play, either. Over 16 starts in 2023 and 2024 with the Giants, Jones had a QBR of only 42.1. Part of the value Jones brings is with his legs, too, and it's fair to wonder how much that will be diminished after the Achilles injury.
But it's worth it for the Colts to want to see what they can get again out of Jones after how well he played for most of last season. I just wouldn't want to pay too much in guarantees to find out. And it looks like they didn't.
) (Seth Walder)
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