[JAFF]

Insider: 10 things to watch as Colts try to break curse in Jacksonville

Joel A. Erickson
Indianapolis Star


INDIANAPOLIS — The Colts have a curse to break this week.

Indianapolis has lost eight consecutive road games to the Jaguars, a streak that includes a loss in London but is almost entirely dotted with inexplicable, confusing losses in Jacksonville.

New head coach Shane Steichen gets his first chance to end the streak at 1 p.m. Sunday in a game televised on WTTV-4, armed with backup quarterback Gardner Minshew, who opened his career on the other side of the rivalry, beating Indianapolis in the 2020 season opener for Jacksonville’s only win of the season.

And there are early-season stakes to this matchup.


Indianapolis (3-2) and Jacksonville (3-2) are tied for the AFC South lead, although the Jaguars currently hold the head-to-head tiebreaker after beating the Colts 31-21 in the season opener. If the Colts can turn the tables on Jacksonville and break the streak this Sunday, they’d not only take control of the AFC South lead, but erase the head-to-head advantage.

Can Gardner Minshew break the Jacksonville curse?

1. Based on the way the Jaguars defense has played so far this season, Minshew might have to carry the load this week. Jacksonville’s defense is giving up 7.25 yards per dropback and 262.4 yards per game, and the Jaguars have only nine sacks through the first five games. The Jaguars are tied for seventh in the NFL with five interceptions, making the job simple for Minshew. If the veteran can avoid the big mistake — his career interception rate is just 1.5% — there should be opportunities for big yardage.


2. Expect the Colts to emphasize short, high-percentage throws and getting the ball out of Minshew’s hands quickly, even though Jacksonville’s pass rush has struggled so far. Minshew’s strength is his ability to find the right read quickly, and under Steichen, Indianapolis will always cater to the quarterback’s strengths. If Indianapolis sticks to the quick game, Michael Pittman Jr. (31 catches, 297 yards, one touchdown) and Josh Downs (23 catches, 255 yards) will likely get a lot of work.

3. Indianapolis hasn’t been able to get second-year wide receiver Alec Pierce involved consistently yet, and it will be interesting to see if the Colts can get him going with Minshew at the helm. The veteran backup missed an open Pierce on a couple of long throws against Baltimore, and Minshew’s style of play doesn’t exactly fit Pierce’s skill set. Pierce is best at stretching defenses vertically, but if the Colts want to get him involved, they might have to expand his role in the offense.


4. The Colts could get left tackle Bernhard Raimann back for the first time in two weeks, but rookie swing tackle Blake Freeland has the difficult assignment this week, and not only because he’s switching to the right side after two weeks stepping into Raimann’s place on the left. Edge rusher Josh Allen has six of Jacksonville’s nine sacks so far — two of his three sacks in the season opener were recorded running down rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson at the line of scrimmage — and typically rushes off the left side, putting him up against Freeland.

How many carries for Jonathan Taylor this week?

5. Jonathan Taylor should get more than the 10 snaps he played last week, although it’s probably smart to continue rotating snaps at the running back position, considering the way Zack Moss is playing. Moss has 445 yards on 89 carries this season, a 5.0 average, and if he continues to play that way, the Colts should be able to keep both running backs fresh, rather than running one into the ground.

6. Only one NFL quarterback — Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa — gets the ball out of his hands faster than Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence, who is averaging 2.46 seconds from snap to throw this season, a number that makes it difficult for the pass rush to get home, but the Jaguars haven’t always reaped the benefits this season. Lawrence has been sacked 13 times, a number that ranks in the middle of the NFL, and when they’ve come, they’ve come in bunches. Kansas City got Lawrence four times, and the Bills got him five times in London last week.

7. DeForest Buckner is likely going to face a slew of double teams, as he always does, but if defensive coordinator Gus Bradley can find a way to get him one-on-one, the left guard spot seems like a good target. Jacksonville left guard Walker Little is out with a knee injury, pushing Tyler Shatley into the starting lineup. Kwity Paye is expected back in the lineup after missing last week’s game with a concussion; Jaguars right tackle Anton Harrison has given up three sacks already this season.

8. The pocket might be the best place to take the ball away from Lawrence. The Jaguars’ star has thrown two interceptions in 180 attempts, but he’s already lost three fumbles this season. Whoever gets home in the pocket should be looking for the ball.

9. The absence of wide receiver Zay Jones should not hurt Jacksonville’s passing attack much. Jones has eight catches for 78 yards this season, and five of those catches came against Indianapolis in the opener; four Jaguars weapons have more catches and yards than Jones this season. Wide receivers Christian Kirk (30 catches, 335 yards) and Calvin Ridley (22 catches, 333 yards) face a Colts cornerback trio that has changed completely since the season opener. Kenny Moore II remains, but on the outside, rookies JuJu Brents and Jaylon Jones have replaced Dallis Flowers (injury) and Darrell Baker, Jr. (ineffectiveness), and neither rookie played much defensively against Jacksonville.

Look for Jaguars tight end Evan Engram to have a big game

10. Jacksonville tight end Evan Engram ranks second on the Jaguars with 29 catches this season, and the Colts have had a little trouble with tight ends so far. Opposing tight ends are averaging 5.8 catches and 59 yards per game against Indianapolis this season.