At the risk of being a douchey self-promoter... I felt like I must have posted this thought in the past, so I dug it up...
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChaosTheory
I'll preface by saying JT's ankle might be fucked and impact his season. I also suppose JT and Co. could use his ankle as an excuse in the future so he gets his $4.3m and his UFA status without actually playing. I would think the legal fiasco that would cause between JT, the Colts, the doctors, and the union would keep even the dickheads representing JT from pursuing... of course we did just see Lamar Jackson in a dubious injury situation last year amid his contract issues.
But assume that's off the table and his ankle gets healthy. The realistic outcomes for the next few seasons as I see them are:
2023 - JT has to play for us. The only way he can leave is if the Colts trade him or place an RFA tender on him which doesn't seem likely.
If he suits up, I believe human nature, the competitiveness, and the comradery take over for everyone and it flows through the season with the contract on the backburner.
2024 - Assuming JT had a good '23, he could earn an extension offer. Knowing Ballard, it probably won't be what JT wants today. He could trade him, but the Colts probably make out better if they franchise him. They either keep a great player for a relatively cheap RB Tag... or they let him sign an offer from another team and scoop up two 1st-round picks which is more than they would've gotten in any trade.
2025 - I couldn't guess here with all the previous variables... but while a Year-2 FT would be more expensive, it still would be relatively cheap for RB's. So I could see the Colts possibly trying to use it again if JT's been healthy/productive. In which case, repeat of '24: He either signs an extension going into his age-26 season, gives us one more season under the FT, or another team signs him and we get two 1st-round picks.
Beyond that, the FT becomes retarded where the pay is based on the top 5 QB's salaries. But JT is either extended or gone long before this point anyway.
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Early wishful thinking, but... I think the bold might be starting to happen now judging from some of the stuff I've read from Holder, Pelissero, and others along with some of the players'/coaches' comments.
As sour as JT has turned me over the past few months... I hope he's healthy and spends the next 12 weeks (at least) earning that contract from Ballard. Just getting in the locker room with the guys can flip emotions.